Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@Jrobhatch29

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v2

This is just a pre print so I apologise but thought it was too interesting not to share. Upto 60% of children and teenagers were found to have neutralising antibodies (not T cells as found in studies on adults) from exposure to other coronaviruses. They were found in 6% of adults. Obviously this needs verifying, but could potentially explain the low % of childrens cases. (It is quite a heavy read, sorry!)

Interesting. And why it is increasingly important for children to be back fully mixing in my view so that they continue to be exposed to these mild coronaviruses that provid protection from Covid19. Otherwise we could be harming them by trying to protect them.

I’ve been wondering that @CaptainMerica! They’ve stayed pretty much flat! Fingers crossed it carries on.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-driven-out-in-most-local-areas-rmllw92z2

@CaptainMerica my family love in southern Italy and really have gone back to normal apart from masks in shops. I don’t know why there doing so well but I do know their lockdown was full on, you had to have written permission to leave your house and only for work/pharmacy/food shop, no daily walk or exercise and were to be worn at all times too when leaving your house. This went on for 60 days and then they phased the reopening of places really slowly. I feel quite envious when I see all of their photos 😔

@Cusano34 thanks, that's interesting then. I was hoping there was some clear difference that other countries could learn from. If the main difference is that they got cases lower through stricter lockdown before reopening, then it will be a bit late for that.

Spain had a severe lock down and their numbers are spiking. They've opened nightclubs and have a lot of bars that look like they haven't been social distancing effectively. Indoor crowded spaces have to be avoided. I think we will need to seriously look at whether pubs and bars should be open, particularly ones that attract large crowds of drinkers.

@Cusano34

Luck plays a part... In the same way Northern Italy didn’t do anything more “wrong” back in February. It just happenned to be the place the outbreak started in Europe. One group social interaction with an infected super-spreader, and an outbreak is seeded. Only a fortnight ago, Spain was just like Italy. In anotherfortnight, Italy could easily be in the same position (though I hope not).

boys3 - great minds, yes

I actually find the Times article a bit concerning. How many people live their lives never leaving their local area? How many areas never get visitors from another area? Those rural areas of the south west that have never had a case - and so may have people claiming it's all a hoax and not being sensible - are getting summer visitors now, possibly from areas that still have significant infection but are not locked now (or are locked down but like Blackburn mosques misunderstand the messages).

We need very clear messages - large parts of the country now have very low infection rates but we still need to take sensible precautions because the virus does not stay put!

That Times revelation does make me see now why some MN posters behave and speak the way they do about the virus. I almost feel someone should disclose where they are posting from when they start various theories/ opinion threads as it must affect outlook (in either direction).

Mumsnet threads are quite often started by bored teenagers. They can also be started by those acting on behalf of political parties and seeking to influence public opinion/ make it seem to the media that there is support for a course of action when there isnt.

Anyone can claim to be anything on the internet, I could claim to be posting from Barbados (they are encouraging remote workers to go and live there) - wish I was .

All English regions, had high excess deaths in the March - May period, but the SW was the lowest at 31% - "only" 3,800 deaths

The massive number of daily new cases in the USA, currently around 70,000 after their too early reopening,
has increased the daily deaths to around 1,000 and looks to be trending upwards

Do people in very rural local areas In the UK just get fewer viruses in general (pre-Covid I mean) I wonder?

Infections generally spread more rapidly in densely populated countries, areas, cities
e.g. look at Belgium, Italy, France, Spain - and UK - vs Scandinavian / Nordic countries

sorry to harp on this - but I would like to see investigation of whether they have better immune systems because they get more vitamin D. Would need to compare places like Plymouth and Bournemouth (which also gets lots of sun) with similar towns further north.

Yeah I agree with Italy, they too have opened nightclubs and bars and my friend was at a beach party the other day with easily over 1000 people no masks or distancing. When I say normal i genuinely mean like nothing happened just with masks in shops. There was always a big difference in cases between the north and the south though so that could be why...although my cousin who lives near Milan took a friend down to the south and stayed with my family and again we’re acting normal so who knows?

Couple of reasons SW may do better or have fewer cases
On the pollution charts it went over london and upwards
Being in the south i imagine more sunshine hours -> vit d
It seems fewer cities. Less manufacturing
I imagine not many commute into london from further than bristol.

SW are our florida. Lockdown in florida was so early no herd immunity so an issue when went back to normal. They are a tourist destination (and have many elderly?).

I guess in rural area people go to the town but maybe not lots of different towns.

More people own cars and drive in rural areas. So spread could be more evrn now since masks in shops and on PT. But of course there will still be more restaurants and pubs in cities. Maybe more gyms etc. More kids so more schools. More apartment blocks.

Thankyou all ( again!!)

The vit d probably is higher. As there will be people living in D&c for the surf lifestyle. And second home owners etc.
But it has been so hot apr to jul at school for years you need suntan lotion on all day. Now i was from up north in 80s and never once needed it at school or in Brighton as a teenager.
My kids were likely vit d deficient- (until covid) more so than people with darker skin or who tan more easily because those people can go out for the day in short sleeves and no suntan lotion.
If you need to put on for school then kids are at most getting 2d a week of sun and those could be rain.
Basically we need to follow other countries and fortify food with it. (Scotland are more deficient and get more MS). But PHE seem to be ignoring the evidence.

Just seen that new cases is 767 today - that’s quite a jump isn’t it? Haven’t seen the full death rate yet

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

Just seen that new cases is 767 today - that’s quite a jump isn’t it? Haven’t seen the full death rate yet

Jump from what?

It's similar to yesterday and lower than last Saturdays figures.

Cases overall have been slightly higher this week but the folk on here who are much cleverer than me have given some good explanations about that.

The last couple of days have been a bit higher and I was worried at first but some of that is due to increased testing and some local outbreaks e.g. Blackburn. Even then, it's not all of Blackburn (or other places), it's some areas.

This map www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076
has helped me to keep it in perspective a bit (because I am a worrier!).

A lot of places that have cases have had say 3/4/5 in the last week so not huge numbers.

Overall, things still don't look too bad.

Yeah I agree with Italy, they too have opened nightclubs and bars and my friend was at a beach party the other day with easily over 1000 people no masks or distancing.

If that’s typical, infections will almost certainly rise... It will likely take a few “sparks” for the fire to get going, especially if this is in the south with very little immunity build up...

Wasnt that w sussex pub crawley? Not sure of dates but there arent 16 cases around there

@Keepdistance not sure when the map/figures update.