Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

As before, the surveillance report shows that about 80% of those hospitalised for low level care were white, which is about the % of whites (of all nationalities) in the population.
A much lower % of patients admitted to ICU / HDU were white

All other ethnic groups were a much higher % of ICU / HDU admissions than in low level care

Is this because they are more likely to become seriously ill with COVID,
or the treatments preventing this deterioration do not work as well as for whites,
or because they went / were taken to hospital at a later stage of illness than whites ?

I've just been watching today's Independent SAGE meeting - really interesting analysis from Prof Pagel at the start. Including the fact that only 30% of external contacts are identified by test and trace here (most contacts identified are in the household of the infected person) so it's still not working as it needs to be to ensure we can have local measures to reduce numbers.

You can watch it here:

www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC56XTP8F9zeEUCOttPQ

Another new study mentioned by Prof Pagel is this one

institute.global/policy/learning-live-alongside-covid-19

Really interesting suggestions in here about how to live with covid-19 - e.g. providing better PPE to professions where infection rates high (e.g. security guards.... was a bit surprised by that one), providing N95 masks in a specific colour to very vulnerable people - to both protect them and so they can be identified by others and given plenty of social distance out of the home.

The article includes analysis of recent trends in a lot of other countries with the conclusion more recent spikes driven by environments such as bars and nightclubs, large social gatherings etc. Their suggestion is that potentially superspreader environments should have specific measures put in place.

Also (fig 16) - data showing that countries that adopted mask wearing early on (within 15-30 days from first case) have much, much better outcomes in terms of mortality than countries that didn't adopt masks. The evidence for mask wearing in general (probably this means not just in shops) seems to be growing.

I find developing measures to "Live with" COVID very positive and useful,
a sensible compromise between wilful denial that there is a problem and locking down in fear until there is a vaccine

Weather & COVID:

Prof Ian Jones, Professor of Virology, University of Reading:

".... respiratory viruses are generally seasonal,
probably as viruses that transmit on water droplets do so less well if the droplet dries up faster,
and temperature, humidity and UV may be part of the lull in transmission we are now seeing.

The flip side, alas, is that the opposite will be true in the autumn and beyond.”

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-looking-at-weather-and-covid-19/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20108803v1

We've discussed the effect of population density when comparing death rates for countries

It of course applies also to ^regions within a country and the ONS report on deaths by local area reveals the scale of the difference in the UK:
130 / 100,000 for major cities vs 24/100,000 for "^Rural hamlets and isolated dwellings in a sparse setting”"
so cities had about 5.5 x the death rate of the least populated & most isolated areas

(No wonder some top public health officials and politicos in the know, buggered off to their rural holiday homes, despite the risk of public embarassment)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand30june2020#rural-and-urban-areas

Notes:
1 Deaths occurring between 1 March 2020 and 30 June 2020 and registered by 11 July 2020.
2 Figures exclude death of non-residents and are based on May 2020 boundaries.
3 Coronavirus (COVID-19) was the underlying cause or was mentioned on the death certificate as a contributory factor (ICD-10 codes U07.1 and U07.2).

What is the likelihood of catching Covid now? I know a few weeks ago it was a 1 in 4000 chance. I just wondered what the ONS were saying now? I struggled to find it when I searched

Cases: 768. Deaths : 123

Last week's figures for 17th July are

Cases: 687 Deaths: 114

Week before 10th July are

Cases: 513. Deaths: 48

Which makes slightly depressing reading even though a rise was expected after opening up.

WHO Chief scientist

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-no-herd-immunity-means-infection-risk-still-high-warns-who/a-54301885

The chief scientist at the World Health Organization estimates that about 50% to 60% of the population will need to be immune for there to be any protective "herd immunity" effect.

Herd immunity is usually achieved through vaccination and occurs when most of a population is immune to a disease.

Studies done from some countries hit hard by the pandemic show that about 5% to 10% of people now have antibodies,
although in some countries, it has been as high as 20%,
said Dr. Soumya Swaminathan.

"As there are waves of this infection going through countries, people are going to develop antibodies and those people will hopefully be immune for some time so they will also act as barriers and brakes to the spread,"
Swaminathan added.

To achieve herd immunity through natural infection, you need to have several waves and you will see the morbidity and mortality that we see now,
she said.

Other experts have estimated that as much as 70% to 80% of the population need to have antibodies before there is any herd immunity effect.

In the early stages of the pandemic, countries including Britain and Sweden suggested achieving herd immunity as an outbreak response strategy.
However, researchers are now also finding evidence that coronavirus immunity may not last indefinitely, as some recovered patients have tested positive for the virus a second time around.

jumpingjackfrost I agree that on the surface it looks depressing, however the 7 day averages for hospitalisation and deaths still seem to be trending downwards (albeit slightly). So maybe the additional positive tests can be accounted for by asymptomatic/mild cases, probably in hotspots? Also are deaths still being counted on people who have tested positive previously, regardless of when and even if cause of death probably different? (I realise that this overcount will fall way short of previous undercounting but it would skew the apparent trend in current figures).

@sleepwhenidie

jumpingjackfrost I agree that on the surface it looks depressing, however the 7 day averages for hospitalisation and deaths still seem to be trending downwards (albeit slightly). So maybe the additional positive tests can be accounted for by asymptomatic/mild cases, probably in hotspots? Also are deaths still being counted on people who have tested positive previously, regardless of when and even if cause of death probably different? (I realise that this overcount will fall way short of previous undercounting but it would skew the apparent trend in current figures).

Let's hope so!!

As I've said before I'm also hoping that wearing masks and finishing Schools might allow figures to drop a bit more. It's worrying when you can see other countries start to go back up again.

It is a bit worrying to see cases in the 700s the last couple of days. However, the 7 day average is still sitting around the 650 mark. Overall, cases seem to be reamining below 1000 despite more things opening up.

Deaths/admissions/ventilator beds occupied also seem to be steady or declining.

I hope that it's still stable enough not to increase too much

Surges in other countries that seemed to have things well under control are very worrying I agree

I never expected Japan to go haywire, but they seem to have almost as many new cases as us at the moment.

I am hoping the rise in cases is because they are picking up more through the door to door and surveillance testing in hot spots.

We already know asymptomatic cases are quite high and if we find them we can break the chain of transmission.

The daily death numbers are becoming completely meaningless.

The number announced today includes 16 hospital deaths (a very low number) and 107 PHE non hospital deaths (primarily in care home settings). We do not know when the care home residents tested positive for COVID - it could have been March or April.

PHE really need to fix their reporting.

The daily death numbers are becoming completely meaningless

^^This. They are definitely now overstated, due to both late reporting and counting all those who ever tested positive. This is easily seen when comparisons are made with the data published weekly by ONS. At the moment, looking at hospital deaths by date of death and the weekly ONS stats is a lot more informative, and these continue to show a meaningful decline.

Healthcare figures also continue to show improvements - admissions in England have been below 100 for a number of days in succession, and total number is hospital in England is below 1000 for the first time since stats were reported, with less than 100 people on ventilators.

From what we can glean from the weekly test and trace reports, I do think at least part of the uptick in confirmed cases is due to increased testing rather than higher levels of infection. But probably fair to conclude that the easing of lockdown and local outbreaks mean we are no longer on a downward trend.

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v2

This is just a pre print so I apologise but thought it was too interesting not to share. Upto 60% of children and teenagers were found to have neutralising antibodies (not T cells as found in studies on adults) from exposure to other coronaviruses. They were found in 6% of adults. Obviously this needs verifying, but could potentially explain the low % of childrens cases. (It is quite a heavy read, sorry!)

if you look at the local authority figures and also at the outbreak figures you'll see that in fairly large parts of the country levels are now quite low. However there are a number of places where infection is still far too high. There are also still significant numbers of outbreaks in care homes - I mentioned one local authority recently, forget which now, so those positive tests for care home residents may not have been back in April or May.

The risk of infection now depends where you live.

@Jumpingjackfrost

Cases: 768. Deaths : 123

Last week's figures for 17th July are

Cases: 687 Deaths: 114

Week before 10th July are

Cases: 513. Deaths: 48

Which makes slightly depressing reading even though a rise was expected after opening up.

I think the picture is a bit more complex.

Taking specimen date (rather than date cases get added to the cumulative total figures) and where English LA location confirmed for each of the past 6 weeks

w/e 21 June - 5687 cases
w/e 28 June - 4406 cases
w/e 05 July - 3800 cases
w/e 12 July - 3742 cases
w/e 19 July - 3943 cases

Cases for w/e 19th July pretty much all in now, perhaps a few dozen still to appear over the next couple of daily releases

So Yes seeing a slight upsurge, but in the context as others have said of increased testing, particularly in hot spot areas.

Plus the slight uptick is not evenly applied as per the graph showing w/e 19th vs w/e 12th case increase / decrease (the big decrease at the start is Leicester, so lets hope that continues and is mirrored over the next few weeks in the other hotspot areas)

I'd forecast that case numbers in England by specimen date for w/e 26th July will probably just tip the 4,000 mark. On a like for like bases in terms of specimen date 1607 cases as of today's data release as opposed to 1422 for w/e 19th in the data release last Friday

a bit of a x-post with @alreadytaken I think :)

@Jrobhatch29

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v2

This is just a pre print so I apologise but thought it was too interesting not to share. Upto 60% of children and teenagers were found to have neutralising antibodies (not T cells as found in studies on adults) from exposure to other coronaviruses. They were found in 6% of adults. Obviously this needs verifying, but could potentially explain the low % of childrens cases. (It is quite a heavy read, sorry!)

Pipped you to it at lunchtime @Jrobhatch29!

Could partly explain sex difference as women more likely to be exposed to the snotty kids.

@whatsnext2

Interesting, but then you’d expect very young children and babies, who hadn’t had a chance to be exposed to coronaviruses to be more susceptible.

Could partly explain sex difference as women more likely to be exposed to the snotty kids

If that's true it would be great news for school staff 😆

Thanks for the explanation @boys3, that's an interesting take on things. I'm quite wedded to the Worldometer figures I think!

[quote Derbygerbil]@whatsnext2

Interesting, but then you’d expect very young children and babies, who hadn’t had a chance to be exposed to coronaviruses to be more susceptible.[/quote]
Maternal antibodies?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4707740/

Is there anyone here based in Italy? I'm really interested in what they are getting so right. Other European countries who lifted lockdown around the same time seem to be seeing increases in cases, with varying levels of success in containing and controlling outbreaks. However, Italy just don't seem to be getting them?

Are they just not finding them due to less testing? Differences in lockdown easing? Increased immunity (seems unlikely, as while there are reports of some very high antibody levels in the north, I don't think the is the same across the country)? People more cautious and careful?