Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

www.gov.uk/government/publications/dhsc-testing-and-tracing-statistics-information-for-users/dhsc-testing-and-tracing-statistics-information-for-users

Not sure if this has been linked before - the Dept for Health's explanations as to why various figures don't seem to add up, why the number of contacts traced is decreasing, and other "hot" questions. Imho, some of it is helpful explanation, but some of it is gobbledygook, which makes me suspicious. But it could be just me not understanding.

Would be interested in the views of more erudite statisticians on here.

@twolittleboysonetiredmum

Just seen that new cases is 767 today - that’s quite a jump isn’t it? Haven’t seen the full death rate yet

England again accounts for the lion's share - around 650 in England have specimen dates between 20th and 24th July of these:

19 UTLAs (out of 149) account for 50% of the cases added.

40 UTLAs account for 75% of cases added

73 UTLAs (eg still less than half ) account for 90% of cases added

84 UTLAs account for 95% of cases added

leaving 65 UTLAs adding 5% of cases between them.

Top 40 in terms of case number added in today's figure in attachment showing specimen date - final column gives an equivalent weekly cases per 100,000 people

I have a very poor memory for figures so maybe they didn’t jump 😂 thanks for the explanation. Too hard to be on the lookout for our leap in cases with everything in the news about Spain and good to have a rational response here!

Mostly the extra cases are known outbreaks/hot spots where most testing is taking place to try and stamp out the flames. Wrexham has had another small spike, something happening in Wolverhampton (can you tell I'm working backwards), 10 cases in Wigan, small number in West Lancs, Walsall had a mini bump but looks like under control, Wakefield going down, Uttlesford just a handful but had none for weeks before that, Tunbridge Wells probably over their small spike, Trafford looking bad, handful in Tonbridge, Swindon not good, Stockport maybe increasing.

Preprint of study of age specificity against IFR, using meta analysis.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v1

Demonstrates age 50-64 death risk from covid 50 times greater than car crash

64 ?
Some of us happen to be 64 !

@alreadytaken

Mostly the extra cases are known outbreaks/hot spots where most testing is taking place to try and stamp out the flames. Wrexham has had another small spike, something happening in Wolverhampton (can you tell I'm working backwards), 10 cases in Wigan, small number in West Lancs, Walsall had a mini bump but looks like under control, Wakefield going down, Uttlesford just a handful but had none for weeks before that, Tunbridge Wells probably over their small spike, Trafford looking bad, handful in Tonbridge, Swindon not good, Stockport maybe increasing.

My concern if that is the right word is that we seem to be catching the hot-spots once the fire has started but not before they start to smoulder.

So we have significant uplift in testing in the likes of Leicester and its environs, Bradford, Blackburn, Kirklees, Rochdale, Luton etc but is there proactive testing in all those places, like Uttlesford, where cases have been really low and or very infrequent?

It brings the risk for 50+ school staff and parents into perspective, as well as older workers and non-workers alike.
Asking them if they would get into a car is a common riposte to concern

However, they are still at v low risk so long as infection rates remain very low

The concern is whether this remains the case after everyone returns fro holiday and through winter

I am dubious at the level of cases in the UK vs deaths:

Cases are very roughly the same kind of level as Germany has had for several weeks
However, daily deaths in Germany - hospital + institutions - have been continuously < 20 since 17 June
nearly all days in single figures, often < 5 deaths

The UK deaths are much higher - surely not just to PHE over counting
So is the UK finding as many of the existing cases, or missing more than Germany ?
Or is the UK death rate much higher for some reason ?
UK age of infection has also fallen sharply, so doesn't look like age

France and Italy also still have v low deaths - they look mostly single figures

The ONS data means UK official deaths aren't that much out
So it's the # UK cases I'm dubious about

Sorry if someone has already posted this, it’s from the Covid Symptom Study app, they send updates via email. Thought it was quite an interesting update;

covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-23-july

10 areas to watch ...

boys3 I would hope that local authorities and whatever health authorities are called these days would be keeping a very sharp eye on their local area. They are supposed to be getting postcode level data - but I dont know how quickly they get it.

I do know that a number of local authorities have put plans in place in case of a local outbreak.

The local plans, if they have them, dont always seem to be working very well though. I'm getting everything as n/a now so have to clear cookies - but last time I looked Isle of Anglesey had one spike and they were clearly all over it quickly. Wrexham is on a second, lower, spike, Bradford didnt manage to stop a massive funeral.

@BigChocFrenzy

64 ? Some of us happen to be 64 !

Yes I’m in that bracket too, hence it caught my eye....

sorry to harp on this - but I would like to see investigation of whether they have better immune systems because they get more vitamin D. Would need to compare places like Plymouth and Bournemouth (which also gets lots of sun) with similar towns further north.

I thought this had been proven in relation to MS in northern U.K., specifically Scotland? or is there a genetic component?

Answering my own question! Yes and yes.

The thing is I think that COVID is a bit different? It seems to be as much a blood clotting issue as immunity.

www.mstrust.org.uk/life-ms/diet/vitamin-d

@NeurotrashWarrior

sorry to harp on this - but I would like to see investigation of whether they have better immune systems because they get more vitamin D. Would need to compare places like Plymouth and Bournemouth (which also gets lots of sun) with similar towns further north.

I thought this had been proven in relation to MS in northern U.K., specifically Scotland? or is there a genetic component?

I’m not sure if big enough difference. You can compare across USA which is much bigger, Florida for example being hammered, but again age is by far biggest factor, along with socio economic factors like multi generational housing, poor healthcare etc in other places

So far the link with vitamin D is correlation rather than proof of causation. The blood clotting in Covid-19 is a bit odd - but generally there is a correlation between vitamin D and clotting too, although again no proof of causation. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6920963/

Interesting what areas the Zoe ap is picking up - and not picking up. If something is going on in Neath it's not really in government figures yet but they dont include Trafford and there is definitely an issue there.

In USA we can see the effect of the vastly different population densities between and within states
as well as the different decisions of local governors about lockdowns, masks etc

The health service - or lack of it for the precariat - in some Southern and Western states may play a role too
and the large disparity in the % of African Americans vs whites who have adequate health insurance

already taken why are you picking up on Trafford in particular? I only see 12 odd cases? and 7 on the arcid site, in Hale area? Am I missing something significant?

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Trafford

@Valambtine

already taken why are you picking up on Trafford in particular? I only see 12 odd cases? and 7 on the arcid site, in Hale area? Am I missing something significant?

Trafford 57 cases added in last few days

23rd July - 13 new cases
22nd July - 16 new cases
21st July - 15 new cases
20th July - 13 new cases

the previous 57 cases in Trafford took 21 days to reach.

16 cases in a day in Trafford's highest daily figure since 19th May.

Wasnt just Trafford I mentioned - I dont like Swindon either, but at least there the local council are very clearly onto it www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/18604199.swindon-no-danger-local-lockdown-despite-covid-19-cases-four-workplaces/