Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 13

[PatriciaHolm]

Taking the liberty of starting a new thread as we've just bust the old one, with much thanks to @BigChocfrenzy and I will copy her header..

Welcome to thread 13 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK dashboard sub-national data, local authorities
Beta Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests, partially sub-national
UK stats updated daily by PHE & DHSC
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths, released weekly each Tuesday
PHE surveillance report infections & deaths released every Thursday with sep. infographic
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
FT Daily updates
HSJ Healthcare updates
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases / million pop. / log / linear
Covidly.com filter graphs compare countries
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈📶👍

@Piggywaspushed I agree, highly likely if numbers continue to rise there.

I can’t zoom in on the US excess deaths figure without blurring it...what is it please BigChoc?

Despite the mortality rate looking low so far, US death figures are now starting to look more alarming, Eg Florida yesterday was 140 and reporting 173 today. Other states also startling showing jumps up .

There's 2 things that stump me about the Luton restrictions

1. Luton isn't far from me. I have seen no guidance as to who the new restrictions are for (I'm assuming it's those covered by Luton council? But there's been no local clarification. I'm not in that council so maybe why but it would be good for those outside it to be told)

1. The numbers were peaking 2 weeks ago and have since come back down. Last 2 days there have been 0 new cases (obv that can change). But still looks like the numbers were coming down to pre peak levels anyway

UK seem to be spiking

Perhaps we will do in a few weeks, but I don’t see anything resembling a “spike”.

sorry if this has been posted before - another graphy page with excess deaths euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

praying, I think it's LU4 .

@Piggywaspushed LU4 8 have been offered testing

There has been no official guidance on the restrictions

I have friends in LU4 9.... and LU3 they have no idea if it includes them or not 🤷‍♀️ the council fb has people asking... no response

I'm so far away it won't include me but it would still be good to know!

Sorry to butt in. I've been half following these threads for a while now, but just wanted to add about Sunderland. Just watching the local BBC news (NE and Cumbria) and they mentioned Sunderland. I found it interesting that they mentioned that they had more than double the case (which 7 to 15 is factually more than doubling), however no figures were mentioned.

@RunningNinja79

Sorry to butt in. I've been half following these threads for a while now, but just wanted to add about Sunderland. Just watching the local BBC news (NE and Cumbria) and they mentioned Sunderland. I found it interesting that they mentioned that they had more than double the case (which 7 to 15 is factually more than doubling), however no figures were mentioned.

So irresponsible isnt it? There are hundreds of panicked people commenting on the sunderland echo post

Sounds a shambles praying!

All I can see is they are not opening gyms and are doing mass testing. Not sure many in LU4 8 are big gym goers.

Reuters reports the USA is recording an average of 2,600 cases per hour, the highest rate globally,

Put the UK's few hundred daily cases in perspective

Have Germany got an air bridge with Spain? At what point will travel be suspended, to me we need set rates of growth and case numbers for when borders are shut.

Since 21 June, people from all other EU countries, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland & UK have been able to visit Germany without quarantine (not Sweden yet afaik)

Also allowed from Australia, Canada, NZ and some other countries with low infection rates

tbh, I'm concerned about this wrt some countries
even though fewer Germans than usual are taking a foreign holiday.

However, it's probably politically v difficult for most countries to stop peoples' foreign holiday,
so we'll have to see if any countries suffer local outbreaks from what is brought in by tourists, or from what their own citizens bring back from holiday.

Oops:
If "not Sweden" - then travel from nearly all EU countries allowed

The coronavirus surveillance report for each of the last 3 weeks has commented that case detections are highest in adults age 85+. Still. Seems that protective ring around care homes is still not functioning as it should.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

@Piggywaspushed

It's more than gyms...

•	further increasing testing capacity across the town (details will be available shortly)
•	Keeping play areas closed
•	increased enforcement against businesses that are not compliant with guidelines or that fail to show they are Covid-19 safe
•	new guidance from the council’s Director of Public Health that people should not make social visits to other people’s homes

•	stay at home as much as possible
•	if meeting up with others, do so outside
•	don’t meet in large groups – people should not gather outside in groups greater than six individuals (unless they are from the same household)
•	keep a 2 metre distance from people outside of your household at all times
•	wash your hands regularly
•	wear a face covering in all enclosed public spaces where it is difficult to keep 2 metres apart
•	book at test at <a class="break-all" href="https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">nhs.uk/coronavirus</a>s_ and self-isolate if you have any symptoms, however mild

So people really need to know if it applies to them or not

Missed the play areas because that was also true of Bedford until yesterday! Everyone ignored it....

Is there any more localised data on hospital admissions? I can only see overall figures for the Midlands, and some vague news reports. It would be interesting to see what correlation there has been between the spike in cases and admissions.

Preprint showing ~60% children and teenagers had cross immunity from other coronavirus

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.095414v2

Interesting paper, thanks for sharing it Whats

@alreadytaken

This is the graph for Sunderland coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Sunderland

Unless something has happened in the last day or two that isnt reflected yet in those figures it's not different to most of the country. Cant see why anyone would think that justified local lockdown.

absolutely this.

The story is more about just how bad seemingly quite a lot of journalism be that local or national has become.

Looking at Sunderland over the last six weeks ending each Sunday

w/e 14/6 9 cases; 3.2 per 1000,000 population; in the same week the North East overall was around 8.9 cases per 100,000 and England overall 11.5 cases per 100,000; then

w/e 21/6 5 cases; 1.8 per 1000,000 vs region 4.8 and England 10.1

w/e 28/6 5 cases

w/e 5/7 2 cases; 0.7 per 100,000 vs region 2.2 and England 6.8

w/e 12/7 7 cases 2.5 per 100,000 vs region 2.7 and England 6.6

w/e 19/7 8 cases 2.9 per 100,000 vs region 2.6 and England 6.9

So mathematically yes the number of cases in the last two weeks at 15 is double that of the two weeks prior to that; but the overall case ratio per 100,000 people in still low.

Looking at LAs with a similar population to Sunderland (c277,000 people) for the same last six weeks and in terms of absolute case
numbers

Waltham Forest (London Borough pop 276,000) 11 / 15 / 13 / 12 / 9 / 16

Stoke (pop 256,000) 57 / 46 / 37 / 32 / 27 / 9

Sefton (pop 276,000) 32 / 23 / 15 / 14 / 19 / 20

Rotherham (pop 265,000) 76 / 91 / 74 / 60 / 44 / 62

Medway (pop 278,000) 17 / 29 / 14 / 16 / 14 / 11

Bolton (pop 287,000) 45 / 46 / 68 / 57 / 45 / 45

ONS published this morning their latest update of age standardised deaths from C19 and overall. Section 4 of the update includes an interactive map at LA level which shows the ASR of C19 deaths for each month Mar to Jun (as recorded up to 11th July). You can zoom in to your local area or zoom out for the colour coded bigger England picture

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand30june2020

just looking at yesterday's numbers (again England focus, sorry devolved nation MNers)

702 additional cases added; although as yet only 45 relate to 22nd July.

Thereafter

• 343 added to 21stJuly
• 137 to 20th July
• 43 to 19th July
• 51 to 18th July
• 39 to 17th July
• 19 to 16th July
• 21 to 1st to 15th July

and a net 4 to Mar-Jun

looking at where cases were added, and stripping out County Council areas:

32 Birmingham; equiv weekly rate per 100,000 19.62
30 Bradford ; 38.91
26 Leicester ; 51.38
22 Oldham ; 64.95
20 Blackburn : 93.52
16 Wolverhampton ; 42.53
14 Sandwell ; 29.84
14 Sheffield 16.76
14 Trafford 41.29

25 UTLAs excl counties added 0 cases; and 19 just 1 each

In terms of County Council areas

30 Lancashire 17.22
20 Kent 8.85
19 Northants 17.66
17 Hampshire 8.61
16 Essex 7.52
15 Leicestershire 14.87
12 Oxfordshire 12.14

Given their population sizes no County added 0 cases but 8 added between 1 and 4 cases with an equivalent weekly rate per 100,000 people of less than 4.00

and of constituent districts within the County numbers

Pendle 10; 75.99
Northampton 9; 24.93
Oxford 7; 32.14
Hyndburn 6; 51.82

79 district council areas added 0 cases and 59 just one each