Do you think there will be a second wave?

[Bluemooninmyeyes1]

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

life I just said it may not happen due to the same amount of restrictions just before lockdown.

But if we had zero measures then yes I’d expect exponential growth to create a second peak unless the number of people who have had it is high enough to slow it down.

It’s not that controversial a point is it? Not sure what you are saying exactly

We haven't really got much more knowledge when it comes to treatment though do we? In fact, hardly any really.

And we don't exactly have loads of preventative measures either.

Schools back as normal? a few wiped door handles and banisters are a token really.

I think it will spread.

But it might not.

I'd rather wait and see before I put myself at risk.

Yes kids want to go back to school, but 4-6 weeks in the grand scheme to keep an eye on numbers? Better than becoming seriously ill or dying.

@user8558

And we don't exactly have loads of preventative measures either.

Schools back as normal? a few wiped door handles and banisters are a token really.

I think it will spread.

But it might not.

I'd rather wait and see before I put myself at risk.

Yes kids want to go back to school, but 4-6 weeks in the grand scheme to keep an eye on numbers? Better than becoming seriously ill or dying.

Maybe it depends where you live but you can't move for hand sanitiser, wipes, face masks, people avoiding each other etc in my local area. There is absolutely no comparison to pre March behaviour for the majority of people out and about.

I haven't heard anyone say that schools will be back as normal, if your local school is only wiping the door handles that sounds like they either don't understand or are ignoring the guidance, might be worth looking at a change of school.

I go to work, go shopping, I've been out to eat all of those with the proper precautions and nowhere has felt unsafe, I guess it's a shame that your area has ignored all the guidance - do you live in Leicester or one of the other high case areas?

@user8558

We haven't really got much more knowledge when it comes to treatment though do we? In fact, hardly any really.

I'm not a doctor but based what I see in the news of course treatments have improved, I can't remember the names of the drugs but there's the really cheap one that improves outcomes, doctors know better how to ventilate the most severe cases better. Scientists all over the world have dedicated millions of person hours to this, do you really think they haven't been learning about the virus?

Hopefully a doctor will come on and confirm one oway or the other

Re the short lived levels of immunity. It's a bit more complicated than that from what I gather, as the immunity levels looked at were for antibodies but not including T cells, which have virus memory, and offer protection. Also, the immunity drop off study hasn't yet been peer reviewed; and relatively small numbers.

Re the Oxford Vaccine, the idea that it might only prevent disease severity and people might pass it on even if vaccinated has been disputed. I believe they were given huge doses of the virus in most orifices and the virus detected post mortem was likely to be residual from the that. Also, well over a hundred other vaccines are being developed, many also in third stage testing and using various ways of creating them.

Wish there was a reliable, easy to use Covid test and we could all trust the government to deploy properly and not fudge numbers.

I think come October with wet weather, everyone staying indoors and schools back and immune systems low due to colds and things then yes cases will rise again.

I'm not a doctor but based what I see in the news of course treatments have improved, I can't remember the names of the drugs but there's the really cheap one that improves outcomes, doctors know better how to ventilate the most severe cases better. Scientists all over the world have dedicated millions of person hours to this, do you really think they haven't been learning about the virus?

I've heard doctor after doctor saying they haven't made the progress they would hoped to and are still at the stage where they know more about what doesn't work than what does. It isn't very encouraging. If there was significant news on this in the way you're suggesting, it would be a game changer. As yet there isn't a game changer that alters the mortality rate in a really significant way.

@Derbygerbil

This is what I am wondering. We had the first wave on the back of no measures except washing hands. Surely with SD, masks, isolation etc it wouldn’t be able to get as bad?

That assumes people are socially distancing, wearing masks and isolating. There are a significant number now who are acting as if it were all over.... The US are a month or so ahead of us in this regard, and they are seeing a surge. We will here too I think - my bet is September.

I am immune deficiant, and I take precautions to avoid any infection. But I become complacent. I forget to gel or wash hands etc, and I end up catching something.

People will take precautions, but they will become complacent. This will happen about when winter starts. Hopefully enough will take precautions and with people WFH it will be enough to slow it. But I think people are fooling themselves if they aren't expecting some sort of rise in winter.

The modelling is now showing 120,000 additional deaths this winter based on an r value of 1.7, 75,000 based on an r value of 1.5 or 1,300 with a r value of 1.1.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

Who knows if there will, certainly nobody on here, regardless of what they think.

I don't know if there will be and to be honest, not really that bothered if there is.

The 120k is a projected worst case scenario based on not taking any action. It is not what is expected to happen.
Just wanted to make that absolutely clear in case anyone reads that post and panics.

We can only hope not.
Certainly we did not get one after VE, BLM, the beaches.
And despite what anyone says, we have not and are not planning to return to normal as a country - many people still working from home, public transport at a tiny capacity, some mask wearing, some social distancing, no mass gatherings, part time schooling.

Nice to see some properly psychopathic views philcornwall, it was starting to feel almost humane there for a while.

[quote weepingwillow22]The modelling is now showing 120,000 additional deaths this winter based on an r value of 1.7, 75,000 based on an r value of 1.5 or 1,300 with a r value of 1.1.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail[/quote]

It's really important to bear in my mind this is worst case scenario. The media loves to headline the terrible stuff.

Remember the Imperial prediction for the first wave of 500,000? That was based on no mitigation. And was also seen as flawed. It's modelling. It's not Mystic Meg!

@tobee To be fair the Guardian did present the three scenarios and showed that if we are able to keep the r value at 1.1 additional deaths will be very low.

The r value prior to lockdown however was 3 so keeping it as low as 1.1 will be very hard in winter when everyone is indoors and we are not locking dowb. The zoe app is already showing an r value of 1.3 in London.

There's no chance basically.

True @weepingwillow22. But the headline speak the loudest.