Do you think there will be a second wave?

[Bluemooninmyeyes1]

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

Well my childs bubble has just closed because a staff member has it so it's not looking great tbh.

I guess even the ardent anti-maskers can agree that there will be rises in infections possibly leading to localised lockdown. I think that's what most people are referring to when they talk about waves.

Yes there will be a second wave but they'll call it local outbreaks to make it sound less bad and to make it sound like it's controlled.

@Ohfrigginghellers

Well my childs bubble has just closed because a staff member has it so it's not looking great tbh.

Surely the fact it has closed is a good sign. It means that they're on top of test and trace. All the people in that bubble will self isolate until the risk has passed and then the viral transmission from that teacher has been stopped in its tracks.

Annoying for you and maybe worrying for a few weeks while you wait to make sure your child hasnt been exposed, but not an indication of a second wave at all.

No, a few localised peaks, but not a full blown wave.

I think there will be.
To many things are opening up all at the same time.
I think this is what the gov want tho, another wave while schools are closed over the summer.

Yes , with a sprinkling of seasonal flu , topped of with a splattering of d&v
Can't wait 😬
The amount of us NHS front line staff have been broken by the '1st' wave . Not sure mentally how some will/would cope with a 2nd.
Never known death like it.

Yes I think there will be and the productions at the moment are looking at October/November after the school's have been back a couple of months. Espicaly if people keep refusing to wear masks.

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Not sure a school bubble closing is evidence that we have effective test and trace. It would be the chain of contacts of colleagues of the teacher and children in the bubble who also test positive that would show us we actually have T&T in place. Children are sent home with a request to get a test, but if parents choose not to, we are none the wiser about the child’s Covid status and local R is pretty meaningless.

I think it’s quite possible that there will be a further wave during the cool and damp months of autumn and winter

@Ohfrigginghellers

Well my childs bubble has just closed because a staff member has it so it's not looking great tbh.

Why do you think that one person testing positive indicates a second wave? The virus is still around so we would expect people to catch it. The objective is to contain outbreaks, hence closing bubbles

It’s bit of a “watched pot never boils paradox”....the less we believe (collectively) a second wave could happen, the more likely a second wave will happen.

No I dont, there may be a few ripples here and there but even if there is, for the vast majority of people it would mean a couple of weeks off work and then back to it.

We may find the flu season isnt as bad this year which will continue to help the NHS.

No I don't think there will

Worldometer projections for the UK show a second peak in November bigger than the first
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

[quote weepingwillow22]Worldometer projections for the UK show a second peak in November bigger than the first
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom[/quote]
Genuine question - how would the second peak be bigger than the first given that now people are working at home, use of public transport is much reduced, there are no large gatherings, no theatres or gigs, we have track and trace (albeit not perfect), there is ample testing capacity and we are practising social distancing? I just don’t see how it could get more out of control than last time?

Oh and some people have already had it, which will go some small way to impeding spread

I suspect the Worldometer projection for ‘mandates easing’ means ‘everything going completely back to normal’.

And that’s just not going to happen before November. No way. Even if things reopened to pretty much normal levels (which they won’t) we still have knowledge and facilities in place we didn’t have before

For those who think there will be a significant second wave, what makes you think that?

[quote weepingwillow22]Worldometer projections for the UK show a second peak in November bigger than the first
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom[/quote]
What evidence or data/research is that based on? As far as I know worldometer is just a collection of the data on deaths, cases etc. they don't have any special information that everyone else doesn't which makes their prediction more reliable.

I'm so confused about why people think the recent events were a '2nd wave'? The average death figure comparisons nationally and broken down by area certainly don't support that theory?

I'm an NHS nurse and I thought I'd maybe had covid early April... No antibodies though so I guess I was wrong

I think there will be further spikes as people relax and think 'it's gone away' but hopefully nothing like the wave we've already endured!

The worldometer assumptions for the 3 lines on the chart are here
www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#Scenarios

I think things are going to be confused over winter especially if we have a severe flu outbreak -my county is already warning that it wont have anywhere near enough flu vaccine. Part of this will be due to greater uptake (they believe - they say usually 70/80% ? of people have it that need it they expect over 90%) part of the problem maybe they wont get enough (again).
medical researchers suggest less than 10% (? not sure of exact figure but its very low) have had the virus to have herd immunity it would have to be something like 70%. (stats are aprox & from memory but the point is the spread between each grouping flu jabs available & uptake & herd immunity & people who MAY have had virus & MAY be immune are far apart & that's always supposing that if you have had it you will remain immune. Which they aren't sure of & hopefully it doesn't mutate much)

I think this was the 2nd wave

If this is/was the 2nd wave, the 1st wave was the tiniest ripple as there was no increase in deaths despite no social distancing at all, and zero awareness!