Do you think there will be a second wave?

[Bluemooninmyeyes1]

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

@Thechineesechicken

This is explanation given on the worldometer site. I suspect seasonality has a lot to do with it given that it is primarily spread indoors

'Increases in human mobility, loosening of social distancing measures, and seasonal disease transmission patterns (COVID-19 transmission appears to be highest during the fall and winter) can drive up infections. However, taking precautions such as maintaining at least six feet between individuals at any gathering, wearing cloth masks or face coverings in public areas, and regular handwashing and sanitation could reduce the risk of disease transmission. Insufficient testing (testing that doesn’t keep pace with infections) as well as insufficient contact tracing capabilities, or lack of isolation for known infections, could also contribute to this rise'

Thanks @weepingwillow22

@FrugiFan yeah fair point. 🤞

There seem to have been so many people with the exact symptoms going back to last autumn when the virus was only just starting to get going. That’s what many believe was the 1st wave.
A 2nd wave was always said to be a lot stronger hence why it seemed to become a lot stronger and infectious by the spring.

The tests don’t seem very reliable, my own relative had the exact symptoms and tested negative but positive for antibodies. Some workers in their office also had symptoms yet tested positive but had no antibodies.

weepingwillow22
Worldometer projections for the UK show a second peak in November bigger than the first
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
What evidence or data/research is that based on? As far as I know worldometer is just a collection of the data on deaths, cases etc. they don't have any special information that everyone else doesn't which makes their prediction more reliable.

This.... also why is China never on these? I think there will be local outbreaks I also think there will be a vaccine the oxford one for the vulnerable

@DebLou47 Here is the methodology

To construct our “Current projection”(the line that shows what we think will most likely happen), we assume that in each location the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory until the daily death rate reaches a threshold of 8 deaths per million. If the daily death rate in a location exceeds that threshold, we are assuming that mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period. The choice of threshold (of a rate of daily deaths of 8 per million) represents the 90thpercentile of the distribution of daily death rate at which locations implemented their mandates during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. In other words, we use the observed experience from the first phase of the pandemic to predict the likely response of governments during the second phase. We selected the 90thpercentile rather than the 50thpercentile to capture the increased reluctance most governments will have to re-impose mandates because of the economic effects of the first set of mandates. In locations that do not exceed the threshold of a daily death rate of 8 per million, the projection is based on our covariates and their forecasts to October 1. In locations were the daily death rate currently exceeds 8 per million, we are assuming that mandates will be introduced in a week’s time.

The first alternative scenario, referred to as “Mandates easing”in ourvisualization tool, shows what would happen in each location if the current pattern of easing social distancing mandates continues and new mandates are not imposed. In other words, this can be thought of as a worst-case scenario, where regardless of how high the daily death rate gets, social mandates will not be re-introduced before October 1. In locations where the number of cases is rising, this leads to very high predictions by October 1.

The second scenario, referred to as “Universal masks”in ourvisualization tool, shows what would happen if 95% of the population in each country always wore a mask when they were in public. This value was chosen to represent the highest observed rate of mask use in the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this scenario, if the daily death rate in a location exceeds 8 deaths per million, we are assuming that social mandates will be reintroduced for a six-week period, just like in our “Current prediction” model.

We have not introduced any major updates to our modeling framework or our covariates since our last release. We anticipate more data will become available on reopening plans, as well as the potential for locations to reinstate prior distancing policies or implement new ones (such as mask mandates) amid shifting COVID-19 trends. We will continue to update model inputs and parameters as new information emerges, and we will communicate these changes accordingly

www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

To avoid a second wave, stringent social distancing through August was necessary, according to the government modelling. That just isn't happening. The government have an impossible situation so they're basically leaving it up to us which disaster we prefer, while carefully saying nothing that will incriminate them either way. The problem is, we do need a grown up in the room or we're going to end up with the worst of both worlds.

I think we're in the start of it now. According to the findings from Kings College the rate is no longer declining and it's on the rise. In the Midlands and Wales it's staying relatively high compared to other areas. People aged 20-69 with Covid are over 1000 c/pm in a band from Anglesey across to Leicester, north to Sheffield and south to Worcester and also Scarborough and Sunderland areas.

I was reading this earlier which is about how the decrease in daily rates is no longer reducing.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-uk

I was reading this earlier which is about how the decrease in daily rates is no longer reducing.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-uk

By this I mean what Betts was talking about

[quote Pieceofpurplesky]I was reading this earlier which is about how the decrease in daily rates is no longer reducing.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-uk[/quote]
We don't want the decrease to be reducing though, don't we want it to be increasing?

Either way that link seems to say the rate of infection has stayed the same for a week, that isn't a very long period to draw any meaningful conclusions is it?

There is an interesting webinar on the zoe app website about the likelihood of a second wave
covid.joinzoe.com/post/second-wave-covid
I think their verdict was that cases will remain broadly flat until the autumn but then more indoor activity will cause them to rapidly rise again.

I think there will be some kind of second wave / spike in the Autumn / Winter as schools go back and people return to socialising indoors rather than meeting in parks / gardens .

I'm not going to over worry about this at the moment though, if it happens,'it happens . I am still social distancing, working from home and wearing a mask when it seems sensible but I'm not going to completely stop living my life so shall be going on holiday and eating out in beer gardens when the weather allows.

@weepingwillow22

There is an interesting webinar on the zoe app website about the likelihood of a second wave covid.joinzoe.com/post/second-wave-covid I think their verdict was that cases will remain broadly flat until the autumn but then more indoor activity will cause them to rapidly rise again.

There is always a September increase in colds and coughs and it's the worst month for asthma admissions as people go back to work and the summer holidays end and schools go back. I think it's going to be even worse this year.

I think that it's going to be very difficult for schools and workplaces to function if people have to isolate for a week every time they get a cough or fever. So I think there will be pressure to work anyway, which will potentially lead to a second peak.

Yes, in September. I want to be wrong.

Yes I think there will be a rise come autumn/winter. Whether this is the second or third wave is unclear because of the uncertainty around origin/early circulation perhaps last winter. But coronaviruses in general spread more in winter and people will be indoors more, conditions for the virus itself more favourable and I don’t think the population will adhere to a lockdown like the previous a second time round. Add that to usual winter pressures, backlog of operations etc and I’m not sure the NHS will cope.

Just heard that 2/3 of all cases this week in West Sussex were from my town, which is quite a concern, but im still hoping that we wont have a second wave as bad as the first one

I think cases will build again over the Autumn/ winter and unless we get on top of it the second wave will be higher than the first. I hope I am wrong though!

Given that there have already been 55 outbreaks in schools, despite bubbles of 15 in primary and only a quarter of year groups in at any one time in secondary with social distancing which will be largely scrapped in sept it is not a good sign going into autumn when schools will not be covid secure.

Going by the BLM protests beach gatherings etc it seems that the virus is unlikely to be caught outdoors.

When schools go back fully more outbreaks may well occur. I guess we will know by mid October. Meantime I guess we have to hope that people going back to work,;offices pubs and eateries does not lead to an uptick in community cases over the next 6 weeks.

Agree with Rubyviolet. When the schools go back. Absolutely dreading it.

Dh has a hobby friend who works for a local council and he said that they are preparing for a second wave / lockdown in October or November.
I don't know this person myself.
I was gutted: the country cannot afford to lock down again ! We didn't exactly do it properly in England first time around.
I really hope it's all just precautionary or just rumors , but I have heard other people mention it could happen.
It would be awful especially for children and working parents. It's bad enough already.

Dh has a hobby friend who works for a local council and he said that they are preparing for a second wave / lockdown in October or November.

Well of course they are, it would be completely irresponsible not to. They provide public services, they need to plan ahead to be able to deal with potentially difficult circumstances should they arise. It doesn't meant it will actually happen though, it's called contingency planning.

What evidence or data/research is that based on? As far as I know worldometer is just a collection of the data on deaths, cases etc. they don't have any special information that everyone else doesn't which makes their prediction more reliable.

I had a look at the IHME model whch produced those predictions. It's interesting becasuse it's a different methodology to the atomised SIR models which have been used a lot. Those produce similar predictions but are less reliable when a lot of public health interventions are being used (because it's hard to model exactly how effective each intervention is).

This IHME model uses prior data on mask use and social distancing (from mobile phone tracking) to make a prediction. If they've done it right it should be pretty accurate.