Do you think there will be a second wave?

[Bluemooninmyeyes1]

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

Dh has a hobby friend who works for a local council and he said that they are preparing for a second wave / lockdown in October or November.

Well of course they are, it would be completely irresponsible not to.

Yeah, you'd have to be a fecking idiot to run big establishments like (picking an example from the top of my head) schools without making damn sure you have a clear plan to stop the spread.

@donquixotedelamancha. It is very worrying. I hope the British public starts wearing masks pretty soon as it seems to be the only way to significantly mitigate against this without another lockdown.

Imo the wirst aspect is the lack of immunity from infection so really any infection is just a pointless risk and chance of lifelong effects.
I hope gov will go for masks inside including schools.
Especially in light of the (shock horror) possible airborne nature.
But they probably wont as it would put people off pubs.
If immunity is transient then london might seem ok then start increasing after the rest of the country.

Yes I think there will be. The Saturday deaths are double what they were last week. I think we will see more of the effect of lockdown easing very soon.

Those graphs make for sobering reading.

@Bluemooninmyeyes1

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

honestly? I don't think anyone really knows. we can make predictions, but there is always a plethora of views and opinions on this on mums net, and it seems to be pretty polarised.

My own guess, well, I'm going to plump for optimism, and the damn thing grows weaker or mutates itself out of our sight. I have no scientific grounds for that concept but I would prefer to anticipate it.

otherwise, I worry, and remain anxious about trains, moving house, going shopping, etc.

I can only decide what I want to think.
its all we have really.

I do believe though, that in a few more months we will know a lot more about the virus. possibly even have a vaccine.
think about how little we knew in march, and how treatment has improved since.

by winter I hope we can mitigate its effects more easily, even if we don't have a vaccine.

I doubt anyone knows at this point if we shall have a 'second wave'.

it's become a bit of a trend word, and we need to think about why?

I also think it is the first time many of us have had our future plans completely annihilated.
it is unprecedented stuff, and we want answers.
we want a timeframe and an idea of what to expect.
and sadly that isn't yet possible.

Crit care at ours are planning for the mother of all winter surges
All the post lockdown data from overseas plus the woeful immunity levels on the repeatedly exposed can mean little else unfortunately

@Helspopje

Crit care at ours are planning for the mother of all winter surges All the post lockdown data from overseas plus the woeful immunity levels on the repeatedly exposed can mean little else unfortunately

If they have been repeatedly exposed and still didnt catch it, what makes you think they will in the winter?

Yes.

Probably. I’ve noticed today’s figures have gone up a lot, 820 today. I was feeling optimistic before these figures. Let’s hope it doesn’t grow and grow

My tutor at uni (pharmacy) said one is expected Oct/November

Yes. It's frightening since most of us will not see how it affects the sick, so we rely on the news which is moreoftenthanot filled with spin and lies.

My bloke has COPD so we have to be careful.

I highly doubt they'll lock down everyone again. Money seems to matter more than our health right now.
Probably a lot of local lock downs to look forward to and strict measures put in place (compulsory masks in shops and on public transport.)
I'll just continue to do what I'm doing. I never go to the shop without a mask and I'm not doing any unnecessary shopping/pub visits/restaurants etc. It's just not worth the stress and worry imo.

Yes in November, unless the Oxford vaccine makes it through trials. Even then the logistics of getting it out yo everyone will mean a second wave is likely to happen but at least healthcare workers would be protected.

Second wave? Yes
When? October.
As to lockdowns etc, no idea. Those are political decisions & they parted ways with the science a while ago...returns to browsing rightmove for remote small holding in scotland

Yes, but I don't think government will lock down
They only want to present themselves as doing the best for the public and also want to look out for the economy

I gathered as this is a UK mums forum the original poster is referring to the UK. So yes I would not be surprised if there was a second wave of Covid throughout many parts of the UK.

There has been already localised lockdown spikes with R statistics off the scale such as the illegal BAME on BAME labour camp sweatshops making textiles and garments in Leicester with apparently known human trafficking and modern slavery issues etc plus outbreaks at various English and Welsh food factories with Covid safety working guidelines ignored.

The recent riots and mass protests because of overseas Police negligence issues does not help either. Plus the general British anti PPE face masks culture and anti social distancing does not add much confidence in preventing a second wave and keeping that R figure low.

Not sure of guesstimates of final UK Covid fatalities count but it will hopefully be less than USA, Brazil and India. We have "free" health insurance aka NHS so perhaps Brits don't need to worry about big medical bills for treatment and hence possibly a little over confident and blasé if things did prove medically challenging?

Brits also tend to just not follow and accept new rules and guidelines (even if mostly science based for their own good) as possibly not used to taking instructions or being possibly less community spirited and more me me me selfish types.

With a lack of social distancing and thinking against other risk mitigation measures along the lines of does masks help nonsense, the UK will do well not to bring on the second wave. This short term selfish behaviour will mean longer term pain and further frustrate the wish to get rid of Covid and back to new post Covid normal.

I don't understand why people think we've had the second wave
Yes lots of people were sick with coughs and fevers over Christmas and last autumn but that's pretty common every year - there wasn't a sudden spike in deaths for the time of year or a rise in pneumonia cases so I really can't see how we have already had two waves?
I also don't understand why people are so fixated by the second wave, as though if we've already had it, we are now safe. We could easily have third, fourth and fifth waves...

@Peterbishopssarcasticsmile

I don't understand why people think we've had the second wave Yes lots of people were sick with coughs and fevers over Christmas and last autumn but that's pretty common every year - there wasn't a sudden spike in deaths for the time of year or a rise in pneumonia cases so I really can't see how we have already had two waves? I also don't understand why people are so fixated by the second wave, as though if we've already had it, we are now safe. We could easily have third, fourth and fifth waves...

Because people are desperate for some chink of good news. Not surprising really is it?

They have heard that, for eg, the 1918 Spanish Flu, that there were 2 waves and the second was worse. So, naturally, people are hoping that this will work for Covid and we've had the second wave already.

@tobee no when you put it like that it's not surprising, but logically there's absolutely no evidence that this is the second wave
I really really hope I'm wrong and it is or that the blasted virus burns itself out as quickly as it arrived but I think unfortunately we are in for more rough times ahead :(
And I have absolutely no faith in the government after their shitshow of 'handling' it. Throw in Brexit and well....yes I can see why people are desperate for a bit of good news

When people compare corona death rate to 1918 pandemic what is forgotten is that medical care has advanced dramatically. We have respirators & oxygen support - medical trials & antibiotics for co morbid bacterial infections.
Many of the deaths were related to war casualties & extreme poverty caused by ww1. It should be noted that mortality is higher in the first people in both USA & S America

Well, going to be a lot of disappointed people if there isn't

Well, going to be a lot of disappointed people if there isn't

Are you on glue?

Being aware of risk and discussing scenarios is hardly the same thing as wanting it to happen.