Do you think there will be a second wave?

[Bluemooninmyeyes1]

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

@donquixotedelamancha

Well, going to be a lot of disappointed people if there isn't

Are you on glue?

Being aware of risk and discussing scenarios is hardly the same thing as wanting it to happen.

People are feasting on this. They want it to happen

@tobee there were 3 waves with Spanish flu, second wave was the worst.

Yes as I wrote that I was trying to remember if there was a 3rd wave.

Anyway, people are still desperate for it to be past the worse. Whether that's folly or not...

@EnlightenedOwl

Well, going to be a lot of disappointed people if there isn't

Yes that’s right, because fears, wishes and facts are all the same thing

I want this to be over so very much. However, it’s most likely not over. That can’t be changed by wishful thinking. I’ll be very delighted if we come back to this thread in a year’s time and you can say “I told you so”.

Yes and winter time.

Schools back.
People indoors mixing, less ventilation as doors and windows closed.
People are becoming complacent....social distancing less effectively.
Resistance to mask wearing to reduce spread
I read somewhere virus prefers lower temps.

Winter in the NHS is going to be hell

I agree the NHS is going to have a terrible winter - it only just hangs on with its fingertips in 'normal' winters.

I can't work for home, currently where I work we have the windows open all day & as the building is quite exposed there is always a good breeze and air flow through the building.

I'm not look forward to winter, we can't keep the windows open, we will all die of frost-bite!

Well if the very large shopping centre I popped into today to collect a next order from is what's going on then yes there will be a second wave. I agree I also went there on a Sunday so could be partly to blame and shouldn't judge, I went to collect trousers I'd ordered for work and that's all I did, and I actually felt very vulnerable. No distancing, groups of young teenagers everywhere. I learnt my lesson to go mid week after work if I'm desperate because it was like nothings happening and can fully see how a second wave would occur

I don’t think it’s an inevitability and not all scientists are convinced there will be one. Apparently that’s based on Spanish flu and doesn’t mean Covid will follow the same pattern.

However what I find frustrating is if the government are just assuming there will be one without doing anything to actually try and mitigate it.

Remember the worst of the first wave was infections before any mitigation measures were in place. Hopefully with things like SD, masks, quarantine etc it can be kept to manageable levels. But it’s going to take everyone to do their bit and a decent government strategy. Likes of the masks, I fucking hate them, I really don’t want to wear one, but i suck it up because it looks like that’s what it’s going to take to keep numbers low.

Cases will climb throughout summer. Winter will be explosive. Third week of October will be when it really starts. Reasonably straightforward to forecast. Look at the transmission patterns of other respiratory viruses.

@donquixotedelamancha

Well, going to be a lot of disappointed people if there isn't

Are you on glue?

Being aware of risk and discussing scenarios is hardly the same thing as wanting it to happen.

Maybe you don't want it to happen but if you keep up with the corona topic there are quite a core of doom laden posters who are going ti be very disappointed if it doesn't.

@EnlightenedOwl

The only person seeming to want a second wave is you, as you’ve consistently advocated acting in exactly the ways that would bring about a second wave!

Not all scientists think it will follow that pattern @ClimbDad. Hugh Pennington is sceptical of a second wave for one.

@ClimbDad

Cases will climb throughout summer. Winter will be explosive. Third week of October will be when it really starts. Reasonably straightforward to forecast. Look at the transmission patterns of other respiratory viruses.

When does the summer start? We aren't seeing an increase at the moment. If it's so straight forward why isn't their a scientific consensus on what will happen in the next few months?

[quote Derbygerbil]@EnlightenedOwl

The only person seeming to want a second wave is you, as you’ve consistently advocated acting in exactly the ways that would bring about a second wave![/quote]
Well can't see wearing a bit of cloth sodden with your snot will help...

Yes there will probably be a second (or third) wave.

BUT assuming having had it previously provides immunity for a year or so:

Lots of frontline staff will have had it, so hopefully that slows spread through hospitals etc.

There is a treatment (steroids) which are cheap, generic and widely available which prevents approx 1/3 of deaths.

Lots of suggestion that the virus is mutating and is less deadly than it was (fingers crossed)

And... sadly, a lot of those vulnerable to the virus have already died. Hopefully meaning care homes won't get hit so hard. As they have already been hit hard and it ran rampant through the care homes.

Schools returning will cause blips but as long as we can access testing then local lockdowns should help stem the flow.

I suspect masks will become compulsory when in shops. Which will help a little

But the virus apparently thrives at approx 4 degrees C. So if we have a cold winter that will make it worse.,

I wonder if they'll reintroduce the BCG vaccination alongside the flu vaccine this year for the vulnerable. I think I read an article that said that it helps with covid.

@lifesalongsong I though deaths had doubled literally yesterday, 3 weeks after lockdown eased? I hope I'm wrong

[quote cosycatsocks]@lifesalongsong I though deaths had doubled literally yesterday, 3 weeks after lockdown eased? I hope I'm wrong [/quote]
The deaths reported on any day aren't the deaths that occur on that day, unfortunately it's not that simple. If you read the statistics threads there is loads really useful information about what the daily reported figures mean.

@ClimbDad

Cases will climb throughout summer. Winter will be explosive. Third week of October will be when it really starts. Reasonably straightforward to forecast. Look at the transmission patterns of other respiratory viruses.

Could you give me an exact date in october so I can prepare? Seriously how can you know this?

Yes, apparently Covid loves temps between 4 and 10 degrees Celsius. Winter temps. That is why Australia who had very little originally are now having second wave. We were going to go to France on holiday but yesterday read over 600 new cases in one day so it has put us off now. I think we will do work on house this summer instead. We have both wfh do not been on furlough to do DIY.

I am expecting a Xmas lockdown and and I m now prepping. Bought 3 lots of antibacterial hand gel this morning. I am not planning on being caught out again.

Like I said before this could be the second wave!!

This was definitely in our country before we knew about it

@Riv12345

Like I said before this could be the second wave!!

This was definitely in our country before we knew about it

I've read this so many times but haven't yet seen an explanation for how a so-called first wave went unnoticed, didn't cause any excess deaths or put hospitals under strain.

If you can have waves like that what's to say that any future waves won't be relatively harmless?

@drinkingwineoutofamug

Yes , with a sprinkling of seasonal flu , topped of with a splattering of d&v Can't wait 😬 The amount of us NHS front line staff have been broken by the '1st' wave . Not sure mentally how some will/would cope with a 2nd. Never known death like it.

Yes, there have already been a couple of attempted suicides in my Trust. Not counting those who have had to call in sick over the state of their mental health.

I don't know many who were on the frontline who have the mental and physical strength to go through it all again. Let alone subsequent waves of it.

I think the bigger question is - what would happen if there were a second wave? For what it’s worth, I don’t believe there will be one - I think there may well be smaller-scale localised outbreaks that will be contained, but I don’t think we’ll see a large-scale national outbreak again. Mainly due to the fact that people’s behaviour has changed - increased hand hygiene, social distancing, more WFH, etc.

However even if there was a national outbreak, I don’t think we would go into the sort of lockdown we have just been through. The economy couldn’t take it, and also it has much wider-reaching and more severe implications than Covid - just look at the data on cancer diagnoses, it’s frightening. I think we will continue to see and hear about huge repercussions from this lockdown for a long time.

Study the transmission pattern of respiratory viruses. The winter spike tends to begin the third week of October in Northern Europe.