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Original poster

Do you think there will be a second wave?

169 replies

Bluemooninmyeyes1 · 11/07/2020 13:04

There’s so many conflicting forecasts and predictions out there on the whole second wave scenario, I just wondered what people’s own views were and if there is, when do you think it will be? I’ve got a holiday and a wedding booked for spring next year and I just feel so worried about everything.

OP posts:
Derbygerbil · 12/07/2020 18:39

I've read this so many times but haven't yet seen an explanation for how a so-called first wave went unnoticed, didn't cause any excess deaths or put hospitals under strain.

No credible scientific or health body thinks this is the “second wave”... It just bears no scrutiny. Covid may have been here earlier than we thought but that would have been part of the first wave....

This supposed “first wave” passed with barely any notice, with total winter deaths actually being below average yet with no awareness/social distancing/response of any kind... Despite the lack of any action, it must have fizzled out at the start of winter of its own accord. It’s a “tin hat” theory that doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

lifesalongsong · 12/07/2020 18:45

@ClimbDad

Study the transmission pattern of respiratory viruses. The winter spike tends to begin the third week of October in Northern Europe.
Has climate change had any effect on virus calendars? Is this weather related, has the Southern hemisphere had the same experience.

This is the first time I've come across this theory and I have to say it seems odd that ot would be dictated by a date rather then medical factors. As a poster above says our behaviours have changed dramatically in the past 4 months, will that have no effect?

weepingwillow22 · 12/07/2020 18:56

Scientists now seem to be saying the antibodies only last two to three months which will have implications for another wave in the autumn as well as vaccine development. The Oxford vaccine seems to lower the severity of the disease but not stop you from catching it or passing it on.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Gmail

lifesalongsong · 12/07/2020 18:58

@Derbygerbil

I've read this so many times but haven't yet seen an explanation for how a so-called first wave went unnoticed, didn't cause any excess deaths or put hospitals under strain.

No credible scientific or health body thinks this is the “second wave”... It just bears no scrutiny. Covid may have been here earlier than we thought but that would have been part of the first wave....

This supposed “first wave” passed with barely any notice, with total winter deaths actually being below average yet with no awareness/social distancing/response of any kind... Despite the lack of any action, it must have fizzled out at the start of winter of its own accord. It’s a “tin hat” theory that doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

I agree with your logic, I was hoping @Riv12345 could explain the reason for their assertion
MarshaBradyo · 12/07/2020 18:59

Scientists now seem to be saying the antibodies only last two to three months which will have implications for another wave in the autumn as well as vaccine development. The Oxford vaccine seems to lower the severity of the disease but not stop you from catching it or passing it on.

I’ll take lower severity happily but two to three months is concerning

drinkingwineoutofamug · 12/07/2020 19:13

@AnnieCartwright , for some reason I can't quote you .
I am on the waiting list for counselling, we have now got a lot of staff stressed. It's not what the public want to hear, staff shortages. My closest friend is broken. I went back to work last week after a month off recovering from covid myself. I walked the whole way crying, I was scared to go back to work. Never, in 15 years have I felt this way. I have had my fair share of personal problems but nothing could of prepared me for what I saw. It was rare to get 2 deaths a day/week/month. We had days of numerous deaths. I walked home crying. Crying to my mum on the phone that I was broken . Seeing people hugging, sitting in the parks sharing drinks after a 13hr shift wearing full ppe does nothing for the moral of frontline staff. I wanted to shout at them . I'm worried. I hope it doesn't happen.

Riv12345 · 12/07/2020 20:02

The reason I think (or hope) this 'could' be the second wave

A ex colleague of mine work in critical care and what they have seen the last few months back they saw last summer.
A pneumonia type illness, but a bit different from the usual pneumonia.

When x ray was taken it's different from the normal pneumonia.

Like I said 'could' be.

Riv12345 · 12/07/2020 20:05

At the end of the day no one really knows

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 12/07/2020 20:27

I don’t understand why the people who think this is the second wave think the early cases were part of a separate one rather than this taking a long time to build.
It’s not as if there was a gap when nobody was ill. There are people with anecdotes about covid-like symptoms for pretty much every month of the winter.

Peterbishopssarcasticsmile · 12/07/2020 20:32

@riv12345 but surely there would be reports of this? Wouldn't the death rate generally be much higher if it was Covid?
I see so many anecdotal 'facts' on here about doctors and nurses saying its been around for ages etc and I'm not disputing it, but there doesn't seem to be any actual evidence for this

MashedPotatoBrainz · 12/07/2020 20:40

I'm hoping this will be a one wave then fade away virus. But I fear that we haven't seen anything yet. It didn't arrive this time until winter was nearly over. I'm terrified of what will happen if it gets a full winter to run free.

lifesalongsong · 12/07/2020 20:42

@Riv12345

The reason I think (or hope) this 'could' be the second wave

A ex colleague of mine work in critical care and what they have seen the last few months back they saw last summer.
A pneumonia type illness, but a bit different from the usual pneumonia.

When x ray was taken it's different from the normal pneumonia.

Like I said 'could' be.

So based on what one individual says? Did you ask them why there were no excess deaths? Why did 50000 plus people not start to die prematurely until March? Why did no one else in the world report this?

I'm prepared to be swayed by an argument that can be backed uo by facts and measurable statistics but I haven't read one yet.

Riv12345 · 12/07/2020 21:29

Look I'm not on here for an argument

Maybe it is wishful thinking

lifesalongsong · 12/07/2020 21:42

@Riv12345

Look I'm not on here for an argument

Maybe it is wishful thinking

I wasn't trying to argue with you, I'm trying to find any kind of provable facts from the posters who say they think this is a second wave.

Yours happened to be the post I read on this thread, maybe there are others, and it seems like you wouldnt think it without a good reason, I'm trying to find out what that good reason might be. Nearly 4 months since the start of lockdown and I haven't found one.

confusedandtired99 · 12/07/2020 22:31

I’m going to plan for the worse case scenario and hope for the best case scenario.

SengaStrawberry · 12/07/2020 22:39

As a poster above says our behaviours have changed dramatically in the past 4 months, will that have no effect?

This is what I am wondering. We had the first wave on the back of no measures except washing hands. Surely with SD, masks, isolation etc it wouldn’t be able to get as bad? If so and people think it’s an inevitability anyway that we’ll get a second wave why are we still taking suppression measures?

Forgone90 · 12/07/2020 22:50

It will never be as bad as this wave even if we have one... Befor we were on at least 10-15k cases a day befor we decided to do anything about it.... Now carlisle has 8 more cases than the week befor and there is talk of a local lockdown. People are much more aware now and our general hygiene has improved. We now have the foundations to deal with a big outbreak. (awareness, SD, new hospitals, PPE supplies and new drugs and treatments) its no surprise the government think we are better prepared now. Whereas befor we were totally unprepared and not many people took notice.

Derbygerbil · 12/07/2020 23:16

This is what I am wondering. We had the first wave on the back of no measures except washing hands. Surely with SD, masks, isolation etc it wouldn’t be able to get as bad?

That assumes people are socially distancing, wearing masks and isolating. There are a significant number now who are acting as if it were all over.... The US are a month or so ahead of us in this regard, and they are seeing a surge. We will here too I think - my bet is September.

Derbygerbil · 12/07/2020 23:18

... But I don’t think it will be as bad due to the reasons given by Forgone90.

SengaStrawberry · 12/07/2020 23:52

That assumes people are socially distancing, wearing masks and isolating. There are a significant number now who are acting as if it were all over

But society fundamentally isn’t how it was before. Lots of places where the virus spread are still closed or open with restrictions. Many people are still wfh. Masks are compulsory in shops and on public transport. Many people are still following all the rules. In short even if some things are open and a lot of people seem not to be arsed things are very different to how they were in March.

947EliseChalotte · 13/07/2020 00:32

Yes in the autumn or winter as covid19 thrives in cold temperatures. I hope this is wrong tho.

Oblomov20 · 13/07/2020 06:52

No. I think it's scaremongering. I think it's rubbish. Earlier threats of second wave haven't materialised.

Peterbishopssarcasticsmile · 13/07/2020 09:31

But @oblomov20 how could it? We were still in the first wave

MarshaBradyo · 13/07/2020 09:37

Earlier threats of second wave haven't materialised.

It will only happen when restrictions lift enough and not enough SD measures. It’s not definite, we peaked before lockdown and what we are doing now might be enough.

lifesalongsong · 13/07/2020 12:14

@MarshaBradyo

Earlier threats of second wave haven't materialised.

It will only happen when restrictions lift enough and not enough SD measures. It’s not definite, we peaked before lockdown and what we are doing now might be enough.

If we didn't "peak" when we had no measures at all why would we have a greater number of cases when we have loads of measures and knowledge of both prevention and treatment has vastly improved in the past 6 months?

Can you explain how that might happen?