Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Modelling the health and economic impacts of Population-wide Testing, contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) strategies for COVID-19

Uses mathematical and economic modelling to look at the benefits, costs and impacts of different strategies on testing, tracing and isolation.

31 scenarios are modelled in total, with different approaches to tracing, testing, and any subsequent lockdowns.

Conclusions
Targeted testing of symptomatic people only, with a mandatory face coverings policy
will result in the fewest deaths and the lowest intervention costs.

That fits with targeted testing policy of clusters that some European & Asian countries have already.

Targeted testing strategy will only work with mandatory face-coverings

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vTr4IhVdfr5e-CcDfqgv3zjP-Da1Qh5bas09UHsGODU/edit

Can also see some data for UTLA & LTLA in current (but not yet Beta) UK dashboard:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate

Texas Medical Association:
which activities carry the most risk of transmitting COVID-19 infection

Highest risk:
pubs ,places of worship, music concerts, large sports events

Thanks bigchoc that's very interesting.
NB it's only attending places of worship with 500+ others that's in the highest risk category though.

I have just read that the Oxford vaccine and the Wuhan one have entered stage III - testing the reliability of protection

@Firefliess it's not all true that care home residents average six months. The actual figure is 27 eprints.lse.ac.uk/33895/1/dp2769.pdf or even 30 months www.independentage.org/news-media/press-releases/cost-of-average-length-of-stay-a-residential-care-home-equivalent-to-26

I believe the number of care homes for the over 65 is more like 15,000, not at all 9,000

@BovvyDazz this is very late reporting. There were three studies - ethnicity, religion and disability published on 19 June. I discussed the first two here, the latter didn't seem to be saying anything interesting so i disregarded.

The disability study covered only those people who considered themselves 'limited', as of 2011 (including by old age). I.e. 'limited' in 2011 and still alive in 2020.

So already ill in 2011 and still alive in 2020 were much more likely to die from covid-19 than those fit & well in 2011.

This seems like something we knew already, aka 'most deaths had underlying conditions'.

People who are unhealthy, either through old age or from disease, are far more likely to die when infected. This is extremely obvious.

the study didn't cover anyone who became 'limited' since 2011, which seems like a massive limitation.....

NB it's only attending places of worship with 500+ others that's in the highest risk category though.

So Trump’s rallies are the very highest level of risk!... (Trump being the object of worship).

@BigChocFrenzy

I’m presuming those risk levels are for the activities without the mitigations we routinely have in place now... Even in those places in the U.K. where mask wearing at shops isn’t particularly common, generally people seem to be respectful of social distancing when passing and queueing etc. which presumably reduces the risk level considerably.

[quote Derbygerbil]@BigChocFrenzy

I’m presuming those risk levels are for the activities without the mitigations we routinely have in place now... Even in those places in the U.K. where mask wearing at shops isn’t particularly common, generally people seem to be respectful of social distancing when passing and queueing etc. which presumably reduces the risk level considerably.[/quote]
The TMA website says not - it says

"The levels are based on input from the physician members of the task force and the committee, who worked from the assumption that – no matter the activity – participants were taking as many safety precautions as they can."

Though that doesn't take account of the measures the venue puts into place - I would imagine the risks in a socially distanced cinema are actually very different to a packed bar.

The levels are based on input from the physician members of the task force and the committee, who worked from the assumption that – no matter the activity – participants were taking as many safety precautions as they can.

For most of those, if participants took as many pre-cautions are they could, the risks would become negligible. For instance, if they went to the mall with proper fitted masks, kept 2m+ apart at all times and used hand sanitizer immediately after touching something, they will have virtually eliminated all risk.

I feel obliged to just jump on here and comment on that risk chart as I’ve seen it being shared a lot today. Dh works for a cinema chain here in the UK. We were talking the other day about cinemas and malls in NY being moved out of phase 4 to an unknown date of reopening. He was not particularly surprised on the basis of their air conditioning. The typical systems in the US are much more reliant on recirculating air. Here in the UK, certainly for DH’s chain their air conditioning is roof top units that are continually pulling out air and replacing it with fresh air. (Can’t remember the technical details and he’s not here but suffice to say they are two quite different systems and two different risks) Now I’m by no means saying there no issue with cinemas and obviously they’ll have plenty of social distancing measures in place and I’m sure there will be plenty of people deciding not to go just yet, it’s more just making the point that the level of risk for certain activities in other countries may be partly based on things like the particular kind of air conditioning systems that are being used and therefore the risk levels will not necessarily translate exactly in to other countries.

Thank you derby., Shoots and bigchoc. Sorry if I missed anyone.

Does this count as woo dark matter? I think this is genuine (!):

The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neandertals

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1

Yes i dont think the chart really translates in the uk.
Because we are not as participants taking all measures.
Beaches are surely more safe than uk schools under the new plans.

Swimming chlorine does t kill all viruses. So there could be increases in other viruses when they open.
I think cinema will be trying to save their business so wanting it to be safe.

With so few measures and no masks especially in schools its going to be an issue. And lockdowns will disadvantage certain students
Hoping saliva testing will take off here.

Today

624 cases (pillar 1&2)

67 deaths.

How does that compare to a week ago?

There were 100 deaths a week ago. That will bring the 7 day rolling average under 100 for the first time.

Wow. That's really good news.

Cases have been really low continuously this week too. And considering a local outbreak that shows even lower elsewhere.

Let's hope we continue this way.

New positive cases and new reported deaths

Saturday 4 July - 624 / 67
Saturday 27 June - 804 / 100
Saturday 20 June - 1,170 / 128
Saturday 13 June - 1,287 / 181
Saturday 6 June - 1,406 / 204

Good to see the deaths are on average below 100 this week.

Cases the last few days seem to have been around the 5-600 mark which is also good.

Looking at the same day for the last 4/5 weeks it's good to see the progress. A couple of weeks ago I thought we would never see cases below 1000.

Agree pumpkin I actually thought government was happy to remain stable at 1000 and that's what we'd see daily.

Even though studies show winter may be a time we see a rise due to cold temperatures it would be nice to have a 'new' normal few summer months.

Is the reason the cases have suddenly come down and stayed down related to this double counting that was happening with the pillar 2 cases?
So we were recording 1000+ cases for a while when in fact the numbers were already less and now the problem has been identified the case numbers have fallen accordingly?

@Marceline When they removed the double counting from people who'd tested positive more than once that removed about 10% of the cases. I don't know whether the practice of retesting people has become more common in recent weeks - possibly so as more of the cases are in the community so may be people needing to be sure they are safe to return to work possibly? Does anyone know if they corrected the daily totals, or just the overall total to remove the double counting?

Cases have bounced around a bit generally, but have been consistently lower the last three days.

I am confused cases (and deaths) are consistently down, but scientists are saying they are static- based on the ONS stats ? Clever people please explain.