Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@hopefulhalf

I am confused cases (and deaths) are consistently down, but scientists are saying they are static- based on the ONS stats ? Clever people please explain.

Well, the ONS Infection pilot is based on such tiny positive samples - 12 people tested positive from 23,203 people this last week, it was 14/24,256; 10/24,413 the previous week - that realistically they can 't say anything definitive as the margins of error are so great.

All the other indicators show declines -

-COVID-Zoe app showing 1,445 infections a day for the UK down from 2,341 last week (39% decline)
-Cambridge Uni NowCasting study says England at 2,950 infections a day, down from 3,700 a week ago (20% decline)

• PHE incidence report England shows 6.7 confirmed by testing infections per 100,000 population a week (so 600/day) down from 10.7 (840/day) (29% decline)

• NHS monitoring, hospital admissions continue down.

- England hospital admissions 7 rolling average down 27% in a week (now fewer than 200 a day from a peak of 3000)

Does anyone know if they corrected the daily totals, or just the overall total to remove the double counting?

Looking at the dashboard, just the overall total, they haven't gone back retrospectively and adjusted the individual days I don't think.

Given we lost 30k of duplicated tests from about a 12 week period (as it's only relevant since Pillar 2 began), that's about a third of Pillar 2 tests that would appear to be double counted. That would account for quite some daily drop on its own, if reporting is now good enough to make sure that doesn't happen, though I would imagine double counting is become much less of an issue now especially as P1 tests are dropping quickly.

A third of positives, I mean, not just tests!

I was quite surprised how little my LA’s numbers increased when they added in the pillar 2 - from 600 to just over 700. The proportion of pillar 2 positives must have been quite low at the beginning, we’ve had very few cases recently but I imagine more of them will be pillar 2 now.

So rates are going down ?
Despite the chap on the news just now and also SAGE scientist on pm on thursday saying it has stabilised ?

ICNARC report on COVID-19 in critical care 03 July 2020

Useful outcomes chart - Figure 12 - of admissions to date:

• 47% have been discharged from hospital
• 41% died (in ICU or elsewhere in hospital)
• 5% are still in ICU
• 7% are still elsewhere in hospital.

Demographics of ICU patients - Figure 9:

• ⅔ are men aged 40-80.
• % Asians, black and other ethnicities significantly higher than in local pop.

Map showing locations of the last 2 weeks admissions:

• N. England and Midlands are current highest

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/da626009-65bd-ea11-9127-00505601089b

@hopefulhalf

So rates are going down ? Despite the chap on the news just now and also SAGE scientist on pm on thursday saying it has stabilised ?

Well, from what I can see from various sources, yes.

The drop in mortality for Remdesivir in the initial clinical trials didnt reach statistical significance, perhaps that has changed.

We dont have a vaccine yet, wont for some time yet, therefore getting treatment right is currently more important. Even when vaccines are available they may not work well in the groups most at risk. Plasma from survivors is currently being investigated and may be useful if vaccines are at best partially effective.

A lot of data to take in from the recent studies - however survival in critical care is a bit better. I'd expect a smaller proportion to be going into critical care but that doesnt fall out of the data easily.

I missed the suggestion earlier that admin costs were too high. Running a hospital is a complex business. It needs good management and you dont get that for peanuts. Too much emphasis on the NHS having to do everything in the cheapest way possible, rather than the best value.

Thank you Patricia that was my impression, but I wondered if I was missing something.

That's a really useful summary of the data from all the different sources thanks @patricia.

So our current rate of cases and deaths is very approximately 600 cases per day and 100 deaths per day.

Does anyone know how this compares to other European countries at the time they opened bars, restaurants, schools etc? Are we st about the same level they were or still higher?

Just worked this out quickly based on the date Italy, France and Spain opened their bars.

Italy May 18th cases 675 deaths 99.
France: 11th June cases 425 deaths 27
Spain: June 8th cases 167 deaths 12.

So on a parr with Italy but quite a bit higher than the other two.

Did they open them with comparable regulations?

They look quite similar from what I can find.
Italy's figures are most similar to ours on opening and they seem ok so far. Not sure if you can draw any conclusions from that though.

Looks a reasonable time to reopen the UK

Excess deaths have been normal for the time of year for at least the last 2-3 weeks;
no serious problems on the continent after reopening;

hence difficult to justify not reopening the UK hospitality & entertainment sectors, except for large events.

Thanks for that SummerBreeze and BigChoc

It makes little difference but France opened bars and restaurants in most of France on the 2nd of june ( think some areas had some restrictions to be outside). Those figures given above though are accurate in general. In theory one meter rule and masks for servers. In practice in my area anyway little social distancing but masks worn by waiters. Non esstential shops, hairdressers opened on the 11th of May ( gym also in my area but not sure if this was everywhere.)

French daily numbers (e.g. 27 on June 11) no longer include deaths in care homes. Italy was generally hospitals only and Spain reporting is a bit of a mess.

If you compare hospital deaths only, we are much closer to France, Spain and Italy and arguably opening parts of hospitality sector (e.g. outdoor restaurants or hairdressers) is overdue.

Agree wintertravel, especially when you also factor in the continued impact of late reporting of deaths. Looking at numbers of hospital deaths by date of death suggests England is currently at around 35 a day, and whole of UK perhaps a little over 40. Taking into account ONS data that around 64% of COVID deaths occur in hospital, that would suggest our current rate is under 65 deaths a day, rather than the average of 98 reported over the last week:

@wintertravel1980 that's quite reassuring, thanks.

I find Italy interesting, they opened earlier and with slightly higher figures, plus gyms and swimming pools opened a week later I think but the numbers have carried on falling.

Their schools are still shut though, is that the only difference?

Can I just say thank you to all you clever people who explain the situation much better than many so- called experts !

I’m finding the chat of reopening comparisons to other countries really reassuring, thank you. Does anyone know of other countries that have got all school children back in a way similar to the U.K. and how that’s gone? Or are other countries doing more mitigations?

As in the plan for September

I am confused by the US. I keep reading about record high cases in various states but deaths don’t seem to be rising.

I know deaths are a lagging indicator but the increase in cases seem to have been going on for some time.

@Inniu I was just looking at that as I read that 10 of the 12 hospital in the Rio Grande valley in Texas now have full ICUs.

I think there is a lag but deaths are starting to increase in states like Texas, Arizona and Florida. This could be offset by falls in other states eg NY, NJ so at a US level deaths look flat.

With Texas cities starting to report full ICUs I imagine the death rate will be higher there in a week or so.