Some countries are doing a very bad job of handling covid-19.
For example in Indonesia the prices for testing are set on a local level.
So-called rapid tests test for antibodies and will not show up at all for recent infections
theconversation.com/why-cant-we-use-antibody-tests-for-diagnosing-covid-19-yet-138519
However in Indonesia they are a cornerstone.
To get on a plane must have either a (shit) rapid test or (good) real-time PCR test newsroom.airasia.com/news/2020/5/26/indonesia-domestic-and-international-travel-requirements and for arrival real-time PCR only.
The cost of such tests are set locally, for example in one city
www.mistar.id/siantar/warga-siantar-keluhkan-harga-rapid-tes-covid-19/
the official prices are 335,000 IDR (about £20, or 3 day's wages) for a rapid test and 1,940,000 IDR for a RT-PCR test (£110, or 3 week's wages for low-paid people)
Meanwhile there is a nice little trick with the rapid tests (useless) vs. the RT-PCR
If we look at the data for Jakarta
corona.jakarta.go.id/id/data-pemantauan
we see
248,724 rapid tests for Jakarta, of which 8598 'reaktif'
meanwhile
338,306 pcr tests on 166,993 distinct people, of which 12,313 people positive.
If we look at the test results, 3.5% of the rapid tests were reactive, 7.4% of the PCR patients positive, and 7.7% of the PCR tests.
That's in Jakarta, where the lab facilities are obviously the best in the country.
Meanwhile if we look at somewhere slightly more remote, we can see a news report of 38 out of 345 market traders tested with rapid test in Palangkaraya Central Kalimantan were reactive. This is 11%
If we look on the government website rapid tests aren't even mentioned
corona.kalteng.go.id/
Instead if we look carefully we can spot a few numbers:
+13 cases (this refers to RT-PCR positive), to 1029 total, and +1000 RT-PCR tests to 4647.
So the positive rate is 21.5%, but only 4647 tests out of 2.2 million people (1 per 500 people).
Compared with Jakarta, where there has been 1 test per 30 people.
The rapid tests appear to be 20-40% false negative www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200610094112.htm
So in summary:
- if you take a (much cheaper) rapid test, then you will often falsely found negative
- if you are found reactive, then you should be further tested by RT-PCR, but until that happens you won't be counted as positive at all in the Indonesian statistics.
- as in the example above, the cost of testing is a deterrent, and this is likely political, as for example I know an old woman who works in the market who has possible symptoms, but when she visited the doctor no test was offered, and even if she had taken a rapid test then this might falsely find her negative for covid-19, and if reactive she would not be counted positive till if/when tested properly.
- the testing outcomes determine whether an area is allowed to open up for business, but if people aren't being tested or not counted then this might give false results [note that there are two alternative statuses, 'ODP' and 'PDP' which refer to 'person under monitoring' and 'patient in treatment' respectively, which are tracked locally, but won't make it into international numbers until if/when they are found RT-PCR positive]
- It follows that the CFR and total fatalities are total bollocks compared to, say, the UK. For example in the UK we know how many people die each week, and recently doctors have simply said 'dead from corona' when old people have died with relevant symptoms. This is not going to happen Indonesia. So for example, the '3171' dead will be totally bollocks and the true figure will be many times higher. How much higher? No idea whatsoever. Maybe excess deaths can be calculated somehow at some point? And then the IFR should be a small fraction of 1%, due to a young population, so the total infections should be well into the millions, not the ridiculous 63,749 claimed (and no figure for those nationally rapid-test-reactive).