Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

For your Dd

@NewAccountForCorona for both you and your daughter.

She sounds like a fantastic nurse. Hopefully, a break back home will help her to recover so that she can resume nursing again.

Thanks all for the info about the updated spreadsheet. I'm fine with setting up a pivot table to get it into a useful formal (though agree that this shouldn't be a skill that is required to access basic information about health risks!) When I looked at it yesterday it was only showing 40 new cases in England so I assumed it was still pillar 2. It's not labelled as to what it includes. But I'll have another look today and see if it's been updated or I'd done something wrong. Great to hear it does now include all cases!

"I am incredibly proud of her, as I am of all her friends and colleagues who have kept going throughout"

Your DD and her colleagues have done so brilliantly, but it was a surprising responsibility for such a young nurse
💐 🥇
I hope she has a lovely peaceful holiday with you and recharges her batteries

MORI poll indicates most of the public will be quite sensible and cautious about coming out of lockdown

We saw this in Germany at first, that restaurants etc took several weeks for cutomers to return
and even then numbers are still down, because in particular the elderly - the important Grey Euro - are staying home,
as the lower age distribution of new infections indicates

[[https://mobile.twitter.com/benatipsosmori
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI]]I@benatipsosmori*

NEW - Most people uncomfortable with going out to bars/restaurants in the great unlocking

• and still worried about using public transport .

The uk v the French hospital figures have always bemused me @Choux. I have been following the figures in France and they have always had many more in hosptial ( probably around a 1/3 more each tme i checked. Is this because the downward trend seems to be slower or longer in the uk? So I am a bit surprised that the uk has more in hospital overal.

Total in hosptial 104,000 overal
Current in hospital 8000
Current in intensive care 800
Deaths in hosptial 19,000
Total deaths hosptial and care homes - 29,900
Discharged from hospital 76,000
Admissions to hosptial for one week to 2 june - 666

When France went into lockdown there appeared to be just around 11,000 cases that week and around half that when we came out of lockdown - 11th may ( shops open)
( sorry i have rounded up some figures because if i go and check i lose my post!).
Over 100 clusters and currently around 80.
I have obessively kept records! Sad

@ corona your daughter has been amazing and so young, dont know what to say really but my heart goes out to you and her. Glad she is coming home.
Yes and thank you to all the posters on here in making some sense of the data.

Sorry this link is in french and gives less informatjon now but there are on that site good weekly summaries if anyone interested.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/articles/infection-au-nouveau-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-covid-19-france-et-monde

Sorry 573 in intensive care.

@NewAccountForCorona

You must be so proud of her. I really hope she’s not too traumatised by the past few months.

@NewAccountForCorona you must be incredibly proud of your daughter and I hope that she can enjoy a (very) well earned break.

I recently saw someone (I think on Twitter) highlighting a new campaign for targeted mental health support for medical professionals, and I really hope that's something that is introduced. Otherwise we'll have a whole generation of medical staff who face long lasting consequences of this pandemic, and likely lose many who decide to leave after all the pressure they have been under.

Bigchocfrezy
Thank you for the RKI links.
I've passed them on as they are much more reassuring than the fragments in the USA
He is 60 and fit so needs to be careful but not terrified.

Previously the local authority case numbers excluded pillar 2 cases (community as opposed to hospitals/ care homes)
These are now include, hence the increase.

New account for your DD. People have finally recognised all the NHS provides and what wonderful nurses do. My mum has been in having chemo and then rushed in twice with infections (with quite long stays) since lockdown. The nursing staff have been amazing. Everyone has done their best to keep everything up and running whilst saving the lives of tens of thousands against this cruel virus.

I also highlighted the French figures or hospitalisations and ICU ventilations Vs cases last week. I'm reading everyone's input into reasons why carefully.

I wouldnt assume the incompetence is in PHE England - it may be but it's just as likely, if not more likely, to be in the private contractors supplying them with the data

Catching up, and picked up this comment. So, the reality is that PHE didn't ask for the data at that level. However, you could argue that the consultancy should have been well versed enough to have suggested that it might be required/helpful to have. I don't know the exact detail, but as always with government (and particularly PHE who are completely incompetant btw), contracts, they don't know what they want, and don't know what they should have, and don't pay for what they need. In many cases they are actually told/advised what they should have, and don't listen, as they think they know better.

The testing contract didn't go through the normal purchasing process, due to the emergency and lack of time

So the normal process of checks on deliverables, requirements etc did not happen

Oopsnwrong thread so sorry

@humphriescushion I have looked at hospitalizations as a proportion of all diagnosed cases in both countries taking the diagnosed cases from Worldometers (post the UK 30k drop) yesterday.

France hospitalized 63% of its' diagnosed cases.
The UK hospitalized only 45% of its' diagnosed cases.

This is probably explained largely by the anecdotal evidence that blue lips were needed to be taken to a UK hospital. I'm not in France so don't know their protocols for hospitalization - I suspect blue lips were not a prerequisite though!

It's worth noting that France has almost double the number of critical care beds per capita than the UK. They also had coping mechanisms ready such as moving patients around the country or to Germany to accommodate more when capacity was straining locally. The UK has nightingale hospitals with no staff.

It would be interesting to know the number of ventilators per million in each country.

That's interesting @Choux. I think both France and Germany can attribute their lower death rate by much earlier/better health interventions (as well as fewer cases overall of course). The NHS was already on its knees before all this happened.

We have had worse pandemics. The main difference in the past they didn't have none stop rolling news

We didn't have social media either, which was probably just as well if some of the competitive doom-mongering on MN's anything to go by (this series of threads being an honourable exception)

I sometimes wonder if, when the next one comes along, the carry-on over Covid will be remebered as how not to do it ...

*Humphriescushion I’m interested in your link thank you.

Shows our area where we have our holiday home has no current cases. We have booked Eurotunnel for late August for break feel happier now to travel.

*Newaccount
What a caring daughter you have I wish her well and that the family help her to recover.

The nursing staff have been amazing. Everyone has done their best to keep everything up and running whilst saving the lives of tens of thousands against this cruel virus

I totally agree, but then on the whole it's not the nursing staff who've been the problem

I do worry, though, that this will raise the NHS's "sacred cow" status to the point where nothing can be questioned, especially if those who contribute little go on hiding behind the skirts of the hardworking frontline staff

I think i read that France had 8,000 ventilators (similar to uk?), was increased to 12,000 fairly rapidly. And hoped to make more but not sure what happened. Think i read this somewhere but cant remember where and was early on.
They added no sense of smell and taste to the criteria for having a test fairly quickly - it seemed a while before the uk did this. ( we also have a runny nose on this list now)
Was not aware of the critical care capacity so that is interesting @ choux
It may be worth noting that most of the cases were much more concentrated In France to paris and the northeast ( whilst obviously the ventilator no.s are country wide). So hosptials would have been enormously under pressure in some areas and much less so in others.
As you say some patients were moved bytrain and plane to other areas and to other countries - Germany, in particular. However the actual no.s of this was fairly small from memory.
I am in France and have been following closely the data from the uk and here. has kept me busy!

France had higher spare capacity than the UK and decided to treat patients earlier with O2, like Germany
instead of leaving them to struggle too long on their own at home

They had a register of hospitals with spare ICU capacity and specially adapted high-speed trains whizzing patients around the country at 200 kph

The German Air Force had specially adapted planes to fly patients to ICU in Germany, but only about 200 patients from France

However, the most critical factor is that the UK locked down later than both

• comparing the stage of the epidemic for each country at the time of lockdown.

Exponential growth savagely punishes even delay of a week or two:

Our mortality rates do seem much worse than elsewhere, not only when compared to France and Germany, but also to most other developed countries. And this difference persists even now when the NHS is no longer under such a strain. As an example, comparing the UK and US, and assuming around a 3 week lag between new cases and deaths I get the following:

US: 7 day rolling average new cases 3 weeks ago: c20,500
UK: 7 day rolling average new cases 3 weeks ago;
c1,100
So 18.6 times higher case numbers in US
US 7 day average deaths currently: c550
UK 7 day average deaths currently: c110
So about 5 times higher

That is a huge difference in mortality. Possible explanations include:

• higher testing in the US? Possible, but given the positive test rates in each I don’t think this is a primary driver
• underreporting of US deaths vs UK? Latest ONS data does suggest the UK is now fully reporting deaths, whereas I think US still had unexplained excess deaths - but not of an order that explains the difference.
• profile of cases? This must be a big part of it, with the US cases mostly among the young and healthy
• better healthcare? It’s hard not to conclude that this is a contributing factor.

Any other ideas that explain it?

puzzled The NHS has almost no spare capacity, except some in summer
This is the result of many years of cuts, a choice made to enable tax cuts

So unlike countries like Germany who treated as early as possible to the maximum, home visits and hospital admissions,
the NHS had to ration who it treated and when

Also, other countries stopped elective operations, but the NHS had to stop some important treatments too, to a much greater extent than elsewhere

There was no extra staff for Nightingale hospitals, so they were hardly used