Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

NY Times: How the Virus Won

History and excellent animation of how the virus spread across the USA

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html

Invisible outbreaks sprang up everywhere.
The United States ignored the warning signs.

We analyzed travel patterns, hidden infections and genetic data to show how the epidemic spun out of control.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

A few minutes on this thread this evening and I'm already better informed - admittedly not difficult given my low starting point

I feel the same every time I come on it

Me too, so many knowledgeable people on here. It's much appreciated!

Interesting how different places have different thresholds over what’s concerning. The psychology of it is interesting....

Take Australia... In Victoria (6.4m population for context), there’s been panic buying of toilet rolls after new daily infections rose to the dizzy heights of 33 on Thursday.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-australian-supermarkets-cap-toilet-roll-purchases-for-second-time-after-virus-spike-12015626

Thanks for the link @Derby.

Yes it's shocking really that they're proclaiming there to be an outbreak in Leicester on the basis of rates in the first half of June. It's the 28 June today! They need to get the stats together much faster than that if they're going to be able to tackle local outbreaks. The minister (Priti Patel I think) was saying something today though about having been asking for these local data for ages and now starting to get it (belatedly) - it did sounds like they were aware of the need and just struggling to get the data. I don't understand how it can be that hard though - don't you just get all the test providers to send you a big list of the postcodes of all the positive tests every day? Clearly I must be missing something, though fear the government has probably tried to overcomplicate things by asking for 1000 other bits of information on people testing positive which take longer to assemble, have to be data protected, etc.

@itsgettingweird

I think it's pillar 2. From some bloke on news earlier he said how hard it had been to get data - but they have it now and they will analyse this weekend.

Fits in with what we know about regional data.

Do you mean just for Leicester, or generally for all regions? Thanks derby and boys for drawing my attention to table 1 of the surveillance report (I've stuck a screenshot here). Helps put p1 numbers in a bit of context. Really interesting to see how much variation there is in p1 vs p2 proportions of total cases - p1 as low as under 50% of total cases in East Mids, to 82% in London. Generally around 2/3rds though.

The strategy of localised lockdowns depends on knowing promptly when a locality has reached a chosen threshhold.

Otherwise, exponential growth means that the area that needs to be locked down will be much larger than it should have been

Do we even have any mechanism for locking down local areas?

btw, has the govt or PHE published the UK threshhold for local lockdowns

• do we know if they have decided on a definite figure ?

This should be a key plank of the strategy and it is useful to publicise it as a fixed threshhold;
otherwise there is too much debate - and delay - before lockdown

e.g. In Germany, Merkel & the leaders of the 16 states agreed on 50 cases / 100,000 population within 7 days
and this was given in a statement on 6 May after their video conf

Of course, the other part of the strategy is planning implementation
Has this been done ?

afaik, it requires literally closing all road, rail (& air links, if any) to the locked down area,
letting only emergency services in / out and supplies in.

Yes it's shocking really that they're proclaiming there to be an outbreak in Leicester on the basis of rates in the first half of June. It's the 28 June today!

I imagine they knew earlier than today, but probably much earlier. It’s almost as important to have speedy testing turn arounds as it is to have lots of testing. It would be interesting to know the biochemical period for the test, as opposed to the shipping, sorting, preparing, analysing, communicating.... What’s the betting that the Government has done a piss poor procurement and has selected third parties to deliver the testing with even more piss poor logistics.... it would be typical.

Sorry I meant “probably not much earlier.”

Derby In contrast to Australia, I can understand people in current USA epicentres being frightened
Especially African Americans in many of those states - vulnerable because of poverty, lack of healthcare insurance, type of jobs

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/28/trump-retweet-supporter-shouting-white-power-coronavirus-cases-rise-29-us-states-live-latest-news-updates?page=with:block-5ef8ef148f08116127119208#block-5ef8ef148f08116127119208

A disaster is unfolding in Montgomery, Alabama,
where Martin Luther King preached and where Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat on the bus.

Hospitals are running short of drugs to treat Covid-19,
intensive care units are close to capacity,
and ventilators are running short.

Between 85% and 90% of the very sick and dying are African American.

BBC article on how local lockdowns might work.... big emphasis on the "might":
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52934822

So no, it looks like there's no agreed mechanism and no thresholds )published, anyway).

I wonder if the reason for announcing today about a possible local lockdown in Leicester is because they still need to figure out what that actually entails. Is there anything in the legislation that allows for local lockdowns? Are they allowed to close schools, non essential shops etc on a local basis?

But if they had data was more up to date than the first half of June, I would have thought they would have mentioned it.

John Hopkins University states that global COVID deaths now exceed 500,000

Confirmed cases exceed 10 million

I imagine they knew earlier than today, but probably much earlier. It’s almost as important to have speedy testing turn arounds as it is to have lots of testing. It would be interesting to know the biochemical period for the test, as opposed to the shipping, sorting, preparing, analysing, communicating...

Chemical test takes 33 minutes in our trust (thanks to lady who works in the lab who was behind me in Sainsbury's in May). They turn them around in an hoir.

They said a while ago there may need to be localised lockdowns; it would be silly not to do that. It's just where, how, who and how you coordinate it as so many of us work across boundaries now.

I was reading this just now and found it fascinating: (nerd that I am.)

www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-evidence-to-support-the-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission/

Big, that is utterly shocking. a certain section of America will delight in those statistics sadly. I do wish Obama had been in office 8 years later than he was.

This whole thing really will be an enormous turning point in history. My 7yr old chirpily announced it was the Third World War early on; in terms of the impact of it as a significant event, he's not wrong. My only hope is that good things do come from it eventually.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895356/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_w26.pdf

Page 7 of the link Derby posted looks at ethnicity in positive tests. There is an increase in raw numbers and percentage of total positive tests for black people if I am reading it right - up to almost 25 percent of positive tests and up from 700+ a few weeks ago to 900+ this last week, whereas white people positive testing has decreased considerably (5000 plus to 2000 plus iirc - don't have tables open as I write) and Asian positive testing is on a slow downwards trajectory. Why isn't that being reported more widely? Could it be partly to do with BLM after all (obviously not everyone protesting was black - I am trying to understand the data and what has happened specifically in the black community to increase positive tests disproportionately within this community) can it be explained by jobs exposure?

I noticed that in the report too @valambtine. It looks as if black people were more likely to be tested but less likely to test positive, with the reverse true of Asians. I'm unsure why that would be though. An outbreak of ordinary flu in a city with a high black population? Asians not getting tested unless they're really sick? (I can't see why that one would change week to week though)

Leicester to be told it must stay in current lockdown for extra two weeks after spike in COVID-19 cases

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-leicester-to-be-told-it-must-stay-in-current-lockdown-for-extra-two-weeks-after-spike-in-covid-19cases-12017156

Pubs, restaurants and hairdressers in Leicester may be forced to stay shut for two more weeks
after a rise in coronavirus cases.

Parents could be fined if they don't send their children back to school in September, education secretary warns

Interesting; the govt has decided risk will be so low to students - and staff - that they will use legal sanctions to enforce student return

Question now is whether there will be sanctions for staff previously deemed vulnerable, or even shielded
or whether schools will be required to make some accommodations for them - and which ones

https://news.sky.com/story/parents-could-be-fined-if-they-dont-send-their-children-back-to-school-in-september-education-secretary-warns-12017324

The education secretary said a detailed plan on how the government will bring all children back to the classroom for the autumn term will be set out by the end of this week.

My LEA and school made the decisions for us through oc health risk assessments, following government rules, depending on which category you were in. So it's down to those rules which I imagine will change over the summer.

@Firefliess

Not to worry I was misreading the data - I was reading the number of tests and thinking those were the number of positive tests : it is ambiguous with the pie chart above.

Baring in mind that last week I spoke to a secondary teacher who hadn't taught any children that week as they'd all gone to the beach instead because it was hot.

So that's the main reason for the fines.