Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Total cases for Stockport, where I am, is about the same. And Stockport def smaller than Leicester. I think very much decreasing though. I am guessing there isn’t so much of a surge of cases in Leicester, more that they haven’t really retreated?

Comparison with the US is interesting... One thing of note is NY, which has been touted as the example of how to respond effectively to Covid.... Their 7 day average is 797. The UK’s is 1,020 (will be below 1,000 once today’s are factored in), and the U.K.’s population is 3.4 times the size. Perhaps we’re not doing so badly.

And Scotland... 8 cases today with a population of 5.4m. That is very good news.

Derby We cannot compare a densely packed "world city" like NY to an entire country with towns, cities and rural countryside

We shouldn't compare either their # cases, or their IFR

We should compare to similar countries like e.g. France (not Denmark, not S Korea)

In contrast, Arizona... population 7.3m and 3,857 cases . Scaled up, that would be the equivalent of the U.K. having 35,000 daily cases.

@BigChocFrenzy

I was comparing the state not the city... Obviously the match isn’t exact, but not too dissimilar.

imo, US states are too dissimilar to the Uk,
in culture, population distribution, health services etc

Comparing to similar European countries like France is reasonable, but not to some other ones

In fact NY state is less densely populated than the NY at 163 people per sq. compared to 430 for the U.K. NYC is obviously very densely populated, but then the U.K. has London... not quite as densely populated perhaps but probably one of closest matches to NYC in many ways.

imo, US states are too dissimilar to the Uk,
in culture, population distribution, health services etc

There are differences certainly... my point was only that the U.K. perhaps isn’t doing too badly compared to others.

NY state AIR is much more concentrated on NYC than the UK's stats are on London. Albany has fewer deaths per capita than say Salford.

Erie has considerably fewer deaths per capita than Greater Glasgow & Clyde

We don't get daily updates (or any, really) on a localised basis for ALL testing. Localised data is just for Pillar 1, which is 25/30% of positives right now - today it was just 169/901. The other positives are all from Pillar 2, and we don't know where they are. So local data is at present basically useless.

The weekly PHE Surveillance report has some more detail about Pillar 2 locations, but doesn't seem to let you at the actual data so I've had to cut the graphs; one is Pillar 2 positives by 100,000 population over time, showing most area going down but steady in Yorkshire/Humber and what I think is East Mids; the other is weekly rates by upper tier local authority, with clear "red" around, I think, Leicester/Northampton/Manchester areas. This is for week 26, 15-21 June.

Interesting that London has the lowest rate per 100k people despite having by far the highest cases.

@Patricia - could you post the link to where you got that data from?

So from what you're saying, the LA level data is just pillar 1 (people in hospitals and NHS staff) and the pillar 2 (general testing for everyone else) is only available at regional level?

Do you think the government itself is operating in the dark about where these 2/3 of cases are? Or they just decide not to tell us? I don't know which is worse!

The Leicester spike looks to be almost entirely Pillar 2 cases - for which of course local numbers are not (yet?) published anywhere.

The Leicester Mercury published a graph from PHE which is quite stark - especially as cases pre June for Leicester were not that high, relatively.

It is also worth bearing in mind that there is the City of Leicester unitary council, but some suburbs fall into for into the local district councils.

I can't help but think as already suggested that the P1 numbers, although at least provided at lower tier council level now increasingly fail to show the true picture in any local area.

I see that the new dashboard in beta states that sub-national data will be added soon - hopefully sub-national will be down to the same local council level as that for P1 cases, and soon will be days rather than weeks.

oh and just to add what a great and really informative set of threads,. Have only read the current one in full so far, but fantastic links and insights.

@Firefliess

Here you go...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895356/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_w26.pdf

Interesting the extent to which Covid has focussed in clusters, with the worst areas being 10+ times worse than swathes of the country, and London being very much as the lower end of infections.

Pillar 2 cases - for which of course local numbers are not (yet?) published anywhere

a few minutes on this thread this evening and I'm already better informed - admittedly not difficult given my low starting point. @PatriciaHolm thanks for highlighting the PHE weekly surveillance report. I think the lower large red blob on the map within that is the Bedford area. Interesting that the East Mids is the only region where the P2 confirmed cases outstrip P1 cases (table 1 in their pdf)

The upper red bits are a little further North and East than central Manchester I think. It looks like it includes oldham/rochdale which falls under greater Manchester and the far north west blob is potentially Blackburn (Lancashire) but then extends east into huddersfield, Bradford, Barnsley and Rotherham which fall under Yorkshire. All quite densely populated areas.

Probably Tameside under Oldham I think

@boys3 Oh I like that graph! (as a graph, not what it shows, iyswim). We need those for more local areas.

@Firefliess Unfortunately on a day to day basis, I think the Govt is suffering from a lack of granular data as they need to pull together results from multiple local providers. Leicester have waited 2 weeks for localised data, which is appalling.

Thanks, everyone; I knew I'd get sensible answers here

The Guardian link was especially interesting, with PHE giving 37 cases this week and 38 the one before (and 10 / 15 deaths respectively) for Leicester itself ... only one set of imperfect figures I know, but surely not cause for mass panic

Interesting, too, that infection rates for London are said to have stayed low, given the armageddon we were assured would happen following the protests

A few minutes on this thread this evening and I'm already better informed - admittedly not difficult given my low starting point

I feel the same every time I come on it

I think it's pillar 2. From some bloke on news earlier he said how hard it had been to get data - but they have it now and they will analyse this weekend.

Fits in with what we know about regional data.

A few minutes on this thread this evening and I'm already better informed

Agree.

And what's lovely is you can ask a question with a hypothesis and someone will either say your are probably right or "probably wrong because ....."

No one accuses you of having an agenda.

I think the lower large red blob on the map within that is the Bedford area.

It is... I identified earlier in the week that Pillar 1 cases were very high in Bedfordshire over the past fortnight... that report confirms Pillar 2 cases were high too (as i would expect).