Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

815 cases and 25 deaths today. Cases last Mon were 958 (if I remember rightly) and deaths 15.

So lower cases which is good (and below 1000 again). Deaths slightly more but it's always difficult with deaths because of the way they are reported. Still a low figure though which is good news.

Apparently whole year group bubbles in secondary from September and teachers allowed to move between classes. However, bubbles should be kept separate at break/lunch which may be a logistical headache! I'm glad we will have normal lessons at least but it won't be entirely normal

Yes, it's looking like a number of subjects may need to be shelved for a year.

Year groups ? So 175 for DS and 300 for Dd ? What kind of a bubble is that ?

I don't like the idea of some subjects not being taught. I teach Science so it's pretty much a certainty that my subject would be taught along with English and Maths. However, I worry about things like drama, technology, RE, music, art etc. Pupils often only have one lesson per week of these in KS3 and it I don't like the idea that they won't get any time for that.

In KS4, pupils often choose subjects such as art because they have a talent for it and want to continue with it post 16. It would feel like depriving them if they didn't get that chance.

Obviously, core subjects are important but I always feel that students should have a broad curriculum.

Luckily, our head is very sensible so hopefully she will have a plan which means pupils' don't miss out.

I don't like it one bit either. I think it's going to be hard for pupils as it is, without missing out the more engaging subjects. Ironically there may be less progress as a result. We do need to back in school though.

@NeurotrashWarrior definitely agree about being back in school.

Someone on another thread has just said it may be a case of waiting until 5th August and then if cases haven't increased due to things reopening etc. They may just say 'back as normal'.

Nothing would surprise me at present!

Who knows!

The thing that not many people recognise is that lots of the other subjects taught well actually do raise attainment in the core subjects. One study I found fascinating was how drama lessons can raise attainment in maths.

Also the Huff Post article says compulsory testing - I wonder if that means all parents would have to commit to getting their child tested if symptomatic, as a condition of returning to school. Well, not a condition exactly, because attendance seems set to be compulsory again anyway!

Just in case this hadn’t already been posted - the new covid platform ... much easier to find the basic UK data now

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

[quote torydeathdrug]Just in case this hadn’t already been posted - the new covid platform ... much easier to find the basic UK data now

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
Apart from the hospital stats, which for some reason are still 2 weeks out of date!! Other than that much better I agree.

@StrawberryJam200

Also the Huff Post article says compulsory testing - I wonder if that means all parents would have to commit to getting their child tested if symptomatic, as a condition of returning to school. Well, not a condition exactly, because attendance seems set to be compulsory again anyway!

That was part of the new home school agreement we signed before our yr1 DS and SEN yr4 DS went back. That we would get them tested if symptomatic.

There’s quite a lot on there if you explore the menu options on the top right - 7 day rolling average cases in below 900 now & it’s also interesting to see the lag in admission numbers!

@PatriciaHolm Ha! We cross posted! Weird isn’t it? Surely they have those numbers

@Firef1y72 you signed a Home School agreement?? I haven't come across that anywhere else!

I need to go and look at our school's risk assessment again, but I don't think it currently says anything about requiring students to get tested.

[quote torydeathdrug]@PatriciaHolm Ha! We cross posted! Weird isn’t it? Surely they have those numbers [/quote]
They do - they quote them everyday in the data behind the slides, which is still being produced (or was last week..) makes no sense!

Can anyone point me in the direction of where I can find the European average no of cases? I believe it's being used as a benchmark for deciding if Greece will allow flights from the uk over the summer.

The Beta is good, but it doesn't have any of the local authority stats on it, unless I am missing it?

Sorry - here's where I read it

on their admissions graph the daily admitted number is from June 16th (478 - number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 on Tuesday, 16 June 2020). Have there been more recent numbers published on with their slides? I haven't checked that closely tbh!

@torydeathdrug

on their admissions graph the daily admitted number is from June 16th (478 - number of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 on Tuesday, 16 June 2020). Have there been more recent numbers published on with their slides? I haven't checked that closely tbh!

Yes -we have them up to 23 June on the datasets that have been going with the slides - latest for UK then was 391. Nothing today yet though. I thought admissions were actually one of the most interest points as they are a real feel for what is actually happening...

@PatriciaHolm

I’m feeling rather disconcerted that there were 391 hospital admissions and 921 reported cases on 23 June... implying 42% of those who tested positive are hospitalised... I realise some of those who are hospitalised would potentially have tested positive before, but nonetheless, this is a very high figure, and doesn’t seem right... especially as I thought the estimated new infections per day was around the 3-4,000 mark. Am I missing something?

[quote StrawberryJam200]@Firef1y72 you signed a Home School agreement?? I haven't come across that anywhere else!

I need to go and look at our school's risk assessment again, but I don't think it currently says anything about requiring students to get tested.[/quote]
It was updated and signed yes. Have always had a home school agreement, school is very clear on what is expected on either side.

@Derbygerbil I was wondering that too. Are the hospital admissions actually admissions, or does that figure include people already in hospital who catch it in hospital?

If you look at the age profile of deaths in recent weeks it's overwhelmingly the over 75s (more so than during the peak) - so that sounds like it's still raging round care homes - which could explain the high rate of hospitalisation.

@Derbygerbil I have wondered that too. I think they said around 1 in 5 of over 80s are hospitalised so if they are primarily older it would make sense?

*Is there an agreed mechanism in the U.K.
*
Unlikely!

Makes sense though the way Germany is doing it - cases per 100k