will add some more links as we've a new thread:
www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/ -> daily infections and cumulative infections for England & regions. 4260 daily estimated (as of 19 June), daily infections falling by around 2.5%. updated infrequently I think? These are approximates for actual infections, not the much smaller number of lab tests, which can never be complete.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020 - infection survey pilot, weekly - like the above shows continuous decline in covid-19
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - official lab tests by area
lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker - same data from LGA at local level
www.nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats - weekly deaths in Scotland
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/deathregistrationsandoccurrencesbylocalauthorityandhealthboard - weekly deaths by date of occurrence or registration, by local authority and place of occurrence, in England & Wales. If calculating aggregate data first delete all the 'health board' entries, as they are duplicates for Welsh local authorities. Also note that the data structure is odd, 'covid-19' and 'all', not 'covid-19' and 'other than covid-19'
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/numberofdeathsincarehomesnotifiedtothecarequalitycommissionengland - weekly and daily deaths of care home residents. in table 4 breaks down deaths of care home residents in hospitals and other venues, as opposed to the other report, which only considers place of death, not place of residence.
Note that death statistics are largely now of retrospective interest as the daily infections are too low to cause much excess mortality - with 25,000 weekly infections, we expect around 200 extra deaths which is little more than noise at this point.
A second wave on the scale of the first is impossible insofar as infections have been continuously declining for many weeks and are now down by around 99% (not a typo) from the peak. We expect them to continue to fall, but if they don't that's not a problem in that current levels do not remotely begin to justify extra damage to the economy, but rather imply that we should further open it up (except that we just did that, so it's wait and see for a while).
However, it's to be assumed that if we went back to March madness then things would explode again - something that could happen in about 3 weeks flat with pre-covid behaviour.
So, not many extra covid deaths are likely. No sign of infection levels going up after weeks and weeks of continuous fall, but if they do increase it would be moderately, and we'd have to make adjustments.