Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

982 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 16:05

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

OP posts:
Thread gallery
90
Littlebelina · 24/06/2020 19:30

Super, thank you both. Did google earlier but think I was too early

itsgettingweird · 24/06/2020 19:43

They have sent out loads more tests the past few days. 100k more than previous.

I hope this isn't because of suspected cases being higher and is maybe periodic serveillance.

I don't always understand why the number of tests fluctuates so much?

Thanks for posting the app stats above. That's actually quite interesting.

One thing I've noticed throughout this is the focus on one thing and the seeking for finding failure.

I just wish we would get told stats from other countries etc and be given the truth. It would also stop slot of the speculation we get in MSM media and having to seek harder to find real stats.

Humphriescushion · 24/06/2020 20:10

Am in France, we have the app. It is a believe a centralised one ( which i think the uk was trying for). Not widely used i believe at the moment but it has not been pushed much as far as i can see either. I presume it will get promoted more if cases rise especially in cities. I am ruralish so dont cross many people.
Finding clusters appears to be the main aim. We effectively came out of lockdown before we had an app - may 11 and no app till june 2.

One of the main differences I have noticed between France and the Uk was the no.s in hospital. France seemed to have many more in hospital throughout.

larrygrylls · 24/06/2020 20:13

The below is another very good data source for U.K.

covid19.joinzoe.com/data

alreadytaken · 24/06/2020 20:32

data doesnt lie, shoots, but people do. Some even go as far to quote data that they make up. 3891 deaths in hospital in week 24 so not exactly "empty of deaths" was it. Yes down on the 5 year average but not the 500 down you were quoting.

Bit like saying no-one in America is being asked to pay for coronavirus care when they some are being asked for co-payments. Severe cases also need considerable amounts of rehabilitation, not clear how long their government will be paying for the ongoing care needs.

This study is about why the virus is so widespread in the uk - essentially they think it was imported many times and more often from Spain and France than Italy. If you have 1400+ (they think the number they identified is an underestimate) separate sources of infection then you have a widespread problem.

virological.org/t/preliminary-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-importation-establishment-of-uk-transmission-lineages/507

I've found references to other outbreaks from gyms now - and would probably find more if I looked hard, rather than a quick google - but not all that many. Perhaps the infections from gyms include more asymptomatic people or, probably more likely, at the peak of an epidemic it's hard to tell where the infections are coming from.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 21:16

"Or is it the case that successful countries like Germany are relying more on shoe leather and pen and paper to track and he was being clever with his description?"

From the start, Germany had mass track & trace via the old shoe leather method, because there were thousands of local public health officers available and already trained for this kind of work and many more were recruited

Currently well over 20,000 people here specifically allocated to COVID track & trace

The App looks a useful additional tool, but I'd expect shoe leather to remain the main method

  • less likely to lie f2f, body language helps guide questions etc

People can avoid the App, but not those persistent German local health teams who can if all else fails call on legal powers to deal with someone being awkward about cooperation.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 21:23

I think most European countries started to come out of lockdown well before their App was fully available

  • Germany certainly did, on 4 May and App has not been available long here

The App code was made public several weeks beforehand, to try to reassure people

Of course, there are some older people like me who don't own a Smart phone, just an old brick for phone and SMS
(in my case, I've a visual disability, so I use a 12.9" iPad Pro for online, but don't carry it around)

OP posts:
ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 24/06/2020 21:36

data doesnt lie, shoots, but people do. Some even go as far to quote data that they make up. 3891 deaths in hospital in week 24 so not exactly "empty of deaths" was it. Yes down on the 5 year average but not the 500 down you were quoting.

I'm sorry if you don't understand the data, but that doesn't mean I made them up. The average number of deaths occurring in week 24 in hospitals is 4251. So far (to end of week 24 + 8 days) 3508 deaths have been registered, which occurred in week 24. The 3891 you quote is the number of deaths registered in week 24. This is not at all the number of deaths that occurred in week 24.

We don't know how many deaths have occurred, except that it is a number greater than 3508, and that between W23 + 8 days and W24+8 days, the number of weekly deaths fell by 306. So given a real fall of 306 on a like-for-like basis, and a W24 registration figure of 3891 for deaths occurring during some days earlier (i.e. some in W24, more in W23, some in W22, W21, etc., when deaths were higher), a figure of 500 below average, or around 3750 occurrences, seemed reasonable. You can of course produce your own estimate.

Bit like saying no-one in America is being asked to pay for coronavirus care when they some are being asked for co-payments. Severe cases also need considerable amounts of rehabilitation, not clear how long their government will be paying for the ongoing care needs.

Now who's the liar? Please debate in good faith.

I said nothing of the kind, I was only clarifying that multi-hundred-thousand-dollar covid-19 bills have been purely notional, and don't represent any real debt owed by anyone.

I try to correct things which aren't true. It's fine to say 'people might be put off seeking treatment by their large co-pays', or whatever, but if you post something false I will correct it.

This study is about why the virus is so widespread in the uk - essentially they think it was imported many times and more often from Spain and France than Italy. If you have 1400+ (they think the number they identified is an underestimate) separate sources of infection then you have a widespread problem.

Eh, the sources of infection in February/March are no longer relevant.

It's true that if you have many sources importing the virus then that will spread it, but that isn't necessary at all. The virus originated in China and spread there - there was no importer.

If you had one importer you could spread it round the country in time. The imported cases might help in that they might spread it further faster, but that's not obvious - if you have one imported case spreading the virus round London, for example, then people visiting and leaving London can spread it to all parts of the country. Planes just spread it faster....

The failure in February/March was to think we could track the virus - that strategy failed. What worked was blunt force rules that made it more difficult to spread. Sure, if people are known to be infectious then that's good and keep them away from others. But there are many cases of now of healthy athletes etc. being positive without feeling a thing.

We still have a problem that is widespread, hence the blanket rules across the country (ahem, England), but the scale is vastly reduced. Stopping very high risk activities, drastically reducing the scale of infection, alone have cut the infection rate such that we are not likely to suffer many more deaths (i.e. a thousand or so from new infections, which is insignificant).

Stopping the spread in terms of geography seems a little futile in that we are intending people to go back to normal life, and nowhere in the country is now 'plague-ridden' as it was previously, so measures calculated to stop people moving round defeat the point of 'getting back to living'. Rather we assume that there is a risk everywhere, and we scale up 'contact tracing' so that we can further reduce the spread.

But of course, even with contact tracing, we must assume that many people don't give a shit, and will spread the virus, even if they know, or should suspect, that they are infected.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 21:57

The UK probably needs to continue testing more than some other European countries,
in order to compensate for track & trace not yet looking adequate.

Other countries like Germany have the shoe leather method established,
with the App as a helpful additional tool,
but the UK doesn't - I gather UK call centres have started up, but these lack the knowledge & training of public health teams which know their local area

The UK's centralisation of - and massive cuts to - public health services and testing, manufacturing kit etc has seriously hampered their effectiveness and hence the country's response to COVID.

I hope that the future enquiry would consider recommending devolution of such responsibilities - and resources - to local health authorities.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:11

German virologists think we may avoid a 2nd wave
So do experts in several other European countries

The UK should also now be in a position where it can relax lockdown while also avoiding this

  • lockdown has massively reduced infections and also enabled the govt to build up systems to cope with a "new normal"

However, it has hammered the economy and presumably won't be reimposed in any country, barring absolute emergency,
especially now we know which type of measures are most effective.
Lockdown was a shotgun blast of all possible restrictions when we knew too little.

As posted, until a vaccine, rather than a 2nd wave, I expect multiple small "ripples" or clusters:
local outbreaks which can be handled by rapid testing, track & trace and where an infection threshold has been reached - very localised lockdowns

So governments across Europe will be tracking clusters and trying to squash them asap before they spread.
With any delay, the wider the spread, then the wider the locked down area will have to be.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:25

On the last thread, I reported the RKI finding that age of people in new cases was falling in Germany
and we discussed this could happen / be happening in the UK too

This is an analysis of why this can happen in an epidemic, by Natalie E. Dean (Ass Prof Biostatistics, Uni Florida)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1275431821422006274

THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST:

What does it mean that the median age of new cases is dropping in some areas?

I see three possible explanations, not all good.
A thread on how to distinguish between them. 1/10
......
Explanation 1: More testing.

As we do more testing in the community, we are able to capture more mild or even asymptomatic infections.
This is especially true for routine workplace testing.

As younger people have milder disease, this shifts the age distribution lower. 2/10

If median age drops because of more testing only, we expect:

  • Increase in number of cases detected across all age groups
  • Test positivity to drop in all age groups (size of drop depends on which groups are targeted for testing)
  • No change in hospitalizations
3/10

Explanation 2: Elderly people are more cautious.

Median age could also drop if the elderly were protecting themselves better, even with no change in testing.

For example, we are preventing more nursing home outbreaks. 4/10

If median age drops only because the elderly are more cautious, we expect:

  • Drop in number of new cases in the elderly
  • Drop in test positivity among the elderly (fever/illness is more likely due to other non-COVID causes)
  • Drop in hospitalizations (after a lag)
5/10

Explanation 3 (the not good one): Young people are less cautious.

This is distinct from the previous scenario.
It means that young people are being infected even more than before.
This could occur if there are many bar/nightclub or workplace outbreaks. 6/10

If median age drops only because young people are being infected more, we expect:

  • Numbers of new cases to rise in young people
  • Test positivity to increase in young people
  • More young people being hospitalized (after a lag)
7/10

Besides the fact that young people can face unknown long-term outcomes of infection, they can also inadvertently spread the virus to their communities.

So the median age could start to creep back up if it moves from bars out to coworkers, family members, etc. 8/10

The reality is almost certainly some mixture of all three explanations

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/06/2020 22:28

For Germany at least, since testing has dropped slightly after the peak crisis,
the explanation looks like a mix of 2) and 3)

In the UK, if we see age dropping, a mix of all 3 is likely

OP posts:
whenwillthemadnessend · 24/06/2020 23:00

Thank you

Firefliess · 24/06/2020 23:22

Thanks @bigchoc That sets it all out very clearly. I think in the uk the three things all happened at different times. When lockdown happened 2) happened among older people not in care homes, as pensioners were more able to stay home than working age people. Then during the course of lockdown 1) and 3) have both happened - testing has increased and young people have been going back to work more as well as socializing more.

B1rdbra1n · 24/06/2020 23:53

Thanks for all the brilliant info Bigchoc
And everyone else on the thread too!
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

cathyandclare · 25/06/2020 08:32

BMJ article on problems with antibody testing.

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2469

PuzzledObserver · 25/06/2020 08:48

Now that dethamexasone is (presumably) being rolled as standard treatment for the more severe cases, we should see a cliff-edge effect on deaths pretty soon, shouldn’t we?

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 25/06/2020 09:10

Now that dethamexasone is (presumably) being rolled as standard treatment for the more severe cases, we should see a cliff-edge effect on deaths pretty soon, shouldn’t we?

deaths have already dropped precipitously, and dethamexasone only helps 1/3 of ventilated patients. It won't stop the patients too old to ventilate, or those never ventilated.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/06/2020 09:15

The doctors who developed this treatment said it would have reduced deaths so far by about 5,000

So it is a very positive step, but not a "cliff edge" effect

What we really need is a treatment that stops nearly all mild cases becoming serious,
especially since the 1 in 20 confirmed cases developing longterm problems is imo at least as concerning as deaths

However, COVID cases are are massively down and deaths too from the 1,445 daily peak,
now sufficiently low to restart the economy and schools

OP posts:
BoakBackMountain · 25/06/2020 09:27

Placemarking!

Nihiloxica · 25/06/2020 09:48

1 in 20 confirmed cases developing longterm problems is imo at least as concerning as deaths

How can we know about long-term problems arising from a virus that has only existed in the short to medium term?

TheMShip · 25/06/2020 10:00

1 in 20 confirmed cases developing longterm problems

Evidence that I've seen so far indicates that some of this is a post-viral syndrome rather than continuing low grade infection. That means the immune system is involved, and steroids could be helpful.

However I would caution that dexamethasone was actually not helpful and potentially harmful to the hospitalized patients who were not on oxygen or a ventilator in the RECOVERY trial. Many of the people who are suffering from long term viral syndrome ME/CFS type effects were not ill enough with COVID19 to even require hospital, and it's completely unknown at this point as to who would benefit from steroids and who would not.

This is purely speculation, but I'd be interested in seeing a trial of steroids on non-hospitalized COVID19 patients with symptoms extending past 10 days, i.e. into the second phase of the disease which appears to be driven by immune dysregulation.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/06/2020 10:04

"long-term problems" are those still experiencing significant health problems 3 months on

OP posts:
TheMShip · 25/06/2020 10:05

How can we know about long-term problems arising from a virus that has only existed in the short to medium term?

Some are obvious, such as lung or other organ damage, which can be seen on scans. The body won't necessarily recover from scarring of this sort. Destruction of beta cells (pancreatic cells that process insulin) has been shown in pancreatic organoids, and there have been a concerning (though small) number of cases of people spontaneously developing type 1 diabetes post-COVID19 infection. We also know that diabetes is a risk factor for severe cases/death. Heart failure has been the ultimate cause of death for a large proportion of patients, and it's suspected that people recovering from severe cases can have heart tissue damage that stores up problems for the future.

But perhaps the best publicized group have been people who have ongoing and debilitating ME/CFS type symptoms many weeks after the infection has passed. The article by Ed Yong in the Atlantic www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/ on these people is excellent.

TheMShip · 25/06/2020 10:06

Or as BCF says, 3 months plus. Peak of infection in the UK was late March, which is 3 months ago now.

Swipe left for the next trending thread