Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Yes, it seems the virus itself has gone from these unfortunate 1 in 20,

but in some cases it has left behind problems to lungs, heart, kidneys which will take a long time to return to previous levels of health, if ever

These seem separate to the issues related to the immune system ?

I've read reports of asymptomatic people not realising they have lung damage

Is this actually true and if so, what kind of % ?
Presumably only a v small number, but still worrying because hidden damage might not be treated before visible effects maybe years on

Studies are urgently needed to quantify longterm damage to COVID survivors,
because the NHS may need to plan extra resources to treat these people for several months
(a small % of a large number may not be a small number in total )

Sorry to be pedantic, but it is in the spirit of the thread , at the moment we are looking at short and intermediate term outcomes. Even three months isn't long term.

However, of course they need to be investigated and they will be, but by definition results can't be achieved as a matter of urgency. It will take lengthy follow up and assessment.

New article published today on the data from the Zoe app, suggesting fall in new cases has levelled off:
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-stable

I saw that but I'm a bit confused. Wasn't it 3612 daily cases last week and 2,341 now. That's a 35% decrease isn't it?

Yes, I checked the thread from last week. The app estimated that we were running at 3,612 new cases a day. The week before the number was around 4,900.

Hmm.... the latest estimate from Zoe was 3,612 new cases a day. The number is now 2,341. It is quite a significant drop.

It is incredible that London numbers per million of people are as low as those for South West.

bigchocfrenzy

I hope that the future enquiry would consider recommending devolution of such responsibilities - and resources - to local health authorities

It's already in the NHS 5 year plan that all health care be devolved to local care providers. Also that digital services become more prevalent. It was already under way, and interesting, of course, that this has been forced already by Covid, so ahead of the curve on that one. Locally our council has been very proactive in getting all services linked up, and this is definitely the way forward. So it is happening, and maybe Covid has even given the changes a boost.

Good explainer here:
www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-long-term-plan-explained

@BigChocFrenzy

"long-term problems" are those still experiencing significant health problems 3 months on

Wow, I had no idea the long term was so short, although I accept that where certain irreversible damage has been done, we know that it will be permanent.

So are we allowed to refer to the longterm lockdown that lasted 3 months and has done lasting damage, or is 3 months still a piffling length of time in that context?

Less grumpily, are there generally agreed definitions of long term in different contexts?

I saw that but I'm a bit confused. Wasn't it 3612 daily cases last week and 2,341 now. That's a 35% decrease isn't it?

The article suggests that they are no longer counting positive antibody tests (which I didn't realise they were including) so maybe that's why?

[quote fadingfast]New article published today on the data from the Zoe app, suggesting fall in new cases has levelled off:
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-incidence-stable[/quote]
Am I being dumb, there’s a clear drop from last weeks number which, from memory was about 3500. What am I missing?

@BigChocFrenzy

Studies are urgently needed to quantify longterm damage to COVID survivors, because the NHS may need to plan extra resources to treat these people for several months (a small % of a large number may not be a small number in total )

How can we know that lung damage found after a positive Covid test in an asymptomatic person was caused by Covid?

As anyone who has been through a lot of medical testing knows, sometimes the testing turns up things you would never have known about (and might never have harmed you) if you hadn't tested.

Counting antibody tests as active cases makes no sense at all. The article doesn't go into the detail at all, they reports are usually much clearer.

their reports

The thing about that app is could more people be using it? Or have they accounted for that?

I know I read somewhere on MN that a HCP who'd had lung scarring from Covid at the time she tested positive, but 6(?) weeks later was X rayed again and it had gone! She was so relieved. Let's hope she's representative.

3612 on the app just now.

3612 is last week.

This is the updated figure:

They say:

Daily new cases
For the past month the number of daily new cases has been falling week on week making this the first time the data has stopped falling. The data shows that the Midlands is now the region of England with the largest number with 716 daily new cases. This week's figures also point to the return of a slight North / South divide as the Midlands, North West and North East all now have higher numbers of daily new cases compared to the southern regions like the South West and London which have very low numbers.

A full regional breakdown of new daily cases can be found on our data page.

An important update on our figures
The COVID Symptom Study app team took the decision this week to update its approach to calculating daily new cases. The number of people gaining access to antibody tests has increased in the past weeks particularly in the London area, which meant that the number of people reporting positive COVID cases as a result of these tests increased. Results from these antibody tests provide information about past infections, so removing reported antibody tests from the analysis gives a more accurate reflection of the number of new cases in the population.

Ah didn't see that. This is their graph thing.

Neuro, I don't think they've updated the home page on the app- or maybe the lower figure on the website is wrong and the figures haven't gone down!

@NeurotrashWarrior they'll have accounted for that, it's in conjunction with King's College and is definitely 'proper science', the government uses their data etc.

The only thing I can't get my head around is that it's inevitably skewed towards "app users", so, eg, very few care home occupants. They acknowledge this though, and presumably must seek to compensate for that in their extrapolations (not correct term but you know what I mean!)

Sorry I have a child excitedly about Ninjago to my left and one pulling out a cupboard to my right; am of no use in this discussion!

I think what Zoe folks are, perhaps, trying to say is that they revised their methodology based on results from antibody testing and removed potential false positives. In other words, their prior week estimate of 3,612 might have been too high.

Still... their explanation sounds a bit confusing.

This week's figures also point to the return of a slight North / South divide as the Midlands, North West and North East all now have higher numbers of daily new cases compared to the southern regions like the South West and London which have very low numbers.

Watching the animation shows darker pink areas popping up in those areas in the latest results and a slight uptick on the graph.