Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

[jasjas1973]

Talk about social media mis information!
Bergamo has an average age of 45, compared to 43 for the rest of Italy. just 23k over the age of 70.

Most respiratory illnesses decline in summer, no one can say for sure we won't have further infection until we get through the Autumn/winter.

Community antibody testing shows the vast majority have not had CV, so either thats correct, the tests are inaccurate or immunity is short lived.

A precautionary approach might be wise, especially as the NHS has not coped, we now have 10m on its waiting list, which will go to 11m pus if there is a significant 2nd wave.

[AintNobodyHereButUsKittens]

The OP and people who say “the people in my road have all gone back to normal” need to remember what normal looks like. Normal is 1,500 people sweating over each other at Fabric on a Friday night, 50,000 people shouting in close proximity at Villa Park, the Northern line running at 120% of design capacity for three hours a day, weddings where hundreds of people come together from all over the country to hug and kiss each other and then return home. Those are the circumstances which led to an R number of 3 and explosive growth.

If everyone had stuck to social distancing perfectly then the R number would be zero, we’d have been down to zero cases by the beginning of May, but everyone in care homes would probably have died through lack of care, small children would have not seen their separated parent for months, and our essential services would have collapsed. So we’ve taken a compromise, which has kept the R a bit below 1 and the cases have kept going down. All the dodgy behaviour you’re complaining about is probably what’s kept it at 0.8 rather than 0.5, but we’ll never know for sure.

[covidco]

I'm assuming you aren't in the North West? our R is close to 2 now and hospital admissions have gone up significantly this week. I've had 2 COVID deaths this week so far (none for the last 2 weeks).

[deydododatdodontdeydo]

I, and others, were told we were "fucking idiots" for not believing there would be a huge second wave, bigger that the first, on here and on twitter.
A lot of people have bought into the hysterical doom mongering, and scream at anyone with a more optimistic approach.
Having said that, I'm still surprised there were no ripples caused by the big social gatherings.
I did see someone comment on one of the packed beach photos "these people have signed their own death warrants". A bit ott, isn't it? They have definitely been proved wrong.
Or do we just "wait and see in another 2 weeks"?

[ClashCityRocker]

OYBBK I think we need to know where the new infections are coming from.

I would be interested to see how many are care home or hospital acquired - I should imagine it would be much more challenging to get them down below a certain level; we've never quite managed it with Norovirus or MRSA, with the best will in the world.

The challenge of course would be both reducing it and containing it within those settings.

But I do think we need a way of tracking community spreading, just so we can se what is working and what isn't.

[MarshaBradyo]

Dey we are still SD so that will be reflected in the numbers - not going up.

[TorysSuckRevokeArticle50]

Flabbergasted at some of the comments on this thread really.

'Scam' - and what the whole world is just making up all the deaths and illness?

'80% of us have had it' - says who? How do you know that? Absolutely no one in my family or group of friends has had an antibody test, so how would anyone know if any of them have had COVID for sure?

Clearly the numbers are going down, but it is as clear that a very large number of people have died and an even larger number have been ill and thankfully recovered.

I'm not a fan of this government but they are in a lose-lose situation here.

Do nothing - people die and govt are blamed for not protecting them, outcry from the public insisting that schools and businesses must close immediately.
Do something - people still die, gov blamed for being too slow and also blamed for affecting economy by closing schools and businesses.

Simple fact, there is a new virus which is prevalent and disproportionately affects older people but still transmits and infects everyone else too. We have no solid idea of spread, long term impact or immunity yet because it's still new. So we need to be cautious, every move we make is a best guess.

[AlexisCarringtonColbyDexter]

I, and others, were told we were "fucking idiots" for not believing there would be a huge second wave, bigger that the first, on here and on twitter
A lot of people have bought into the hysterical doom mongering, and scream at anyone with a more optimistic approach

Yep- I think I may have also been told I was an "idiot" for thinking there wouldnt be a huge spike after VE day. Who is the idiot now eh?
Ive noticed though that the people screaming there would be a second wave have become strangely silent....

[feelingverylazytoday]

The numbers are staying low because we're releasing restrictions very slowly and gradually. If we go too quickly now they will start to rise again, as they have in some states in the US. At the same time infection control is being tightened up in hospital and care settings.
This has been explained several times in the press conferences, I'm not sure why people find it so difficult to understand.
Re the possibility of a second wave, no one really knows how likely this is at present, but we're certainly armed with much more knowledge of the virus than we were at the beginning so we should able to protect ourselves much better.

[Bouledeneige]

I find the idea that 'they' wanted to control use of oil as it was running low (as an example of how 'they' wanted to control us) very peculiar. Firstly, oil supplies are not running low in the short term, and secondly a simple understanding of economics would suggest that its in the interests of oil producers for demand to outstrip supply to keep prices up. This is why deBeers rations the supply of diamonds to the market to inflate prices. There are very few suppliers any where in the world who would want to decrease demand for their product for this simple reason! Prices would fall and might make the cost of extraction unprofitable.

In order for anyone to believe that 'they' made it all up and it was a scam you'd have to believe that governments across the world were acting in collusion to promote this myth. I'm not sure if anyone's noticed but even governments that live next to each other find it hard to get along - Iran/Iraq; India/Pakistan; let alone the thought that leaders as diverse as from New Zealand, Russia, Brazil, Japan, UK, South Korea, Germany and the US would all act in unison. Its laughable. The damage the shutdowns have done to the economy, the amount of debt countries like the UK have taken on, the number of jobs lost and businesses closing that will no longer be able to pay tax all combine to have a pretty catastrophic economic cost which very few governments would choose to inflict. And in this country, combining this with the impact of Brexit is going to have a very long term negative impact on the country that could last a generation.

The reality is that this government is being criticised by scientists for going into lockdown too late (ie being reluctant to control us). And that's because a conservative government, by the very nature of its political ethos - libertarian and pro markets, was reluctant to impose such draconian measures and preferred (at first) a herd immunity approach. So actually, you could accuse the government of doing the reverse of wanting to control us - they were extremely reluctant to do so.

And finally anyone who thinks it was a scam should go and tell all the NHS and care staff, exhausted and with their faces raw from PPE that it was all a pantomime and not real! All the people who have lost family and friends that they didn't really. Ludicrous!

[feelingverylazytoday]

@AlexisCarringtonColbyDexter

I, and others, were told we were "fucking idiots" for not believing there would be a huge second wave, bigger that the first, on here and on twitter
A lot of people have bought into the hysterical doom mongering, and scream at anyone with a more optimistic approach

Yep- I think I may have also been told I was an "idiot" for thinking there wouldnt be a huge spike after VE day. Who is the idiot now eh?
Ive noticed though that the people screaming there would be a second wave have become strangely silent....

Yes, scientists discovered that the rate of transmission outdoors is very low months ago, a fact that has been explained many times on here. Yet people still don't get it.
And then they call other people idiots. How ironic.

[Mascotte]

@jasjas1973 the theory is that not everyone makes antibodies so may have been exposed but not developed them as other systems have been used to fight off the virus OR some people just aren't susceptible, perhaps because of exposure to other coronaviruses: it's not clear why. But then not everyone gets every flu.

[Teateaandmoretea]

This has been explained several times in the press conferences, I'm not sure why people find it so difficult to understand.

I’m not sure why people need to be rude and condescending.

[Mascotte]

@TorysSuckRevokeArticle50 I wasn't saying 80% of the population has had it. I was referring to the study by Professor Karl Friston saying possibly 80% not susceptible.

It was reported in the guardian using a headline about "dark matter" i think if you want to take a look.

[whenwillthemadnessend]

You sound like you want it to go up.
People are starting to get fed up but on the whole I think behaviour is still different overall therefore numbers still decreasing.

Working from home
Some mask use
Ppe in hospital and care homes
No pubs nightclubs etc
Many still being VERY careful.
No where to go indoors.

[IncrediblySadToo]

[quote priya38]@Lynda07

Think about the oil they would be saving on this "lockdown". More people now working from home, not as much traveling around to and from work, traveling dissipated from less children going to school, less people going to work, less planes flying, anything that needs oil there's been less of.

Before all this lockdown there was a shortage of oil.

I could go on but I'll stop there. [/quote]
Please do. Load of absolute tosh.

[Derbygerbil]

@DoingMyOwnThing

That’s a ridiculous and absurd exaggeration... The average age of Bergamo residents is 45 compared to the Italian average of 43.

[feelingverylazytoday]

@Teateaandmoretea

This has been explained several times in the press conferences, I'm not sure why people find it so difficult to understand.

I’m not sure why people need to be rude and condescending.

You think that's rude and condescending?
Just stating a fact really. It's has been explained n a very straightforward and simple manner, several times.

[Teateaandmoretea]

You think that's rude and condescending?

Yep

[Gwenhwyfar]

@Lynda07

If it was a scam I don't know who stood to gain from it.

Yes, it's really silly to say it's a scam. The only people I can think of who've gained financially are supermarkets and I doubt Tesco would make up a pandemic to get some more business!

[cathyandclare]

Cases are rising slowly but because hospitals are better prepared they can treat quicker and people aren't dying as much. I think next week cases will rise

Interestingly the Kings'/Zoe study has shown a significant drop in cases over the last week. They're estimated to be almost half, suggesting the community cases are falling, although problems could remain within hospitals and care homes which are pushing the overall R up.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-uk

[Derbygerbil]

Lockdown was a bit like going on a crash diet.... Beforehand we ate pies and cakes to our heart’s content. Then suddenly in mid-March we went to a couple of Ryvita each day.... In our crash diet mindset, we then start to worry that having a couple of squares of chocolate will lead to piling on the pounds (ie some people not strictly observing social distancing at outdoor VE Day parties)... which of course it doesn’t. We just don’t lose weight quite as fast as we did before. But it would be bonkers to then say, “the couple of bits of chocolate didn’t make me fat, so clearly I can start gorging on cakes and pies again now and I’ll stay thin!”

[Gwenhwyfar]

VE Day gatherings around me were small, outdoor street parties, not massive gatherings. I don't approve, but I also think they were probably not as bad as very large gatherings.

[strugglingwithdeciding]

@larrygryles they've shown people on tv who have a few thousand on mumsnet reading this post won't be able to confirm this for you , they do exist they have been complaining that there are some with nothing to do as not enough people to trace etc ( personally don't ass that as an issue , surely it's a good thing )

[Derbygerbil]

In order for anyone to believe that 'they' made it all up and it was a scam you'd have to believe that governments across the world were acting in collusion to promote this myth. I'm not sure if anyone's noticed but even governments that live next to each other find it hard to get along - Iran/Iraq; India/Pakistan; let alone the thought that leaders as diverse as from New Zealand, Russia, Brazil, Japan, UK, South Korea, Germany and the US would all act in unison. Its laughable.

Indeed, the twin towers inside job, fake lunar landings and even flat earth theories are positively rational!