Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

It’s a seasonal thing; it’s on the way out for us. But we may see more as the weather gets colder again. Just in time for Brexit. Now that combination is something we need Our government to plan for!!

based on 1,200 new infections with 10 contacts each

Who are these people with 10 contacts? I'd have 2.

It is definitely in danger also as well as having possible seasonality of turning into another hospital-acquired infection.

This sounds very reasonable
"Mascotte Fri 12-Jun-20 00:22:33
There's also a theory that around 80% of the population are simply not susceptible to the virus. Professor Karl Friston."

With any disease bacterium or virus there are always people that are not susceptible and never get it. Imagine if it is around 80% - wow -

I think the question Id like to ask is why the rate of decrease in cases has slowed. Which bits can we still do better in to encourage a more rapid decline in cases while opening things like education up as much as possible.

On the 80% theory Derby raises a good point

That may be true for some of us, or where people have contracted low doses, but take Bergamo, the heart of the epicentre in Italy that seeded Europe’s outbreak.... 57% have tested positive for antibodies there

There is some evidence to suggest that infections peaked either just before or around the time of lockdown.

A significant proportion of people and businesses changed their behaviour in the weeks before lockdown and it may be that this was sufficient to cause infection rates to drop.

I'm not saying lockdown shouldn't have happened - at the time we simply didn't have enough information to do anything different.

But it does make me hopeful that provided we continue with social distancing measures, good hygiene etc a second peak can be avoided.

@OhYouBadBadKitten what are you basing this on?

Clash me too

It shouldn't be possible to have 10 contacts in most workplaces such as factories with social distancing in place. The big 'spreaders' will be within hospitals, care homes and potentially schools.

why do some people think its a scam?
Arranged by who?
And half the economies in the world are going to be tanked...who's making anything? (except maybe JRM et al....and I don't think he would have orchestrated a worldwide pandemic...)

@cyclingmad Will you decline the vaccine and are they going to make the vaccine mandatory?

Is this to do with the NWO?

That may be true for some of us, or where people have contracted low doses, but take Bergamo, the heart of the epicentre in Italy that seeded Europe’s outbreak.... 57% have tested positive for antibodies there

It is possible though that areas have different susceptibility. Maybe the particular combo of colds needed is rarer in people there than say Middlesbrough. It might also be that some asymptomatic/ non-susceptible people do get these antibodies.

We just don’t know and to say 57% having antibodies in one town = a maximum of 40% everywhere not being susceptible is adding 2+2 and getting 5.

It appears to be the case that some people don't get it but don't make antibodies. The body uses other defences against infection, such as T cells. This might explain things like the cruise ships and aircraft carrier where a large percentage did not succumb despite close quarters. Also the children thing. It's really interesting. I'm not a scientist but it's fascinating to read about.

To be honest I firmly believe the people who say it's been here since Oct/Nov... We thought we were going to lose my Mum early November, diagnosed with an 'infection they couldn't shift' had three lots of anti biotic, the third being the strength they would give in hospital, paramedics came out twice as she couldn't breathe, scans shown damage to both lungs and liver. Symptoms cough that lasted weeks, temperature that wouldn't come down, chills, aching, sore throat... Dad had a less severe version few weeks later.... Aunt same right over New Year and Christmas - all diagnosed with an infection they struggled to shift but no confirmed exact diagnosis as GP and Hospital staff wernt sure

If it has then the second wave has been

That is spreaders at the moment. If other industries reopen then obviously there will more potential for contacts.

Well yes, which is when T&T will be useful.

MarshaBradyo
On the 80% theory Derby raises a good pointThat may be true for some of us, or where people have contracted low doses, but take Bergamo, the heart of the epicentre in Italy that seeded Europe’s outbreak.... 57% have tested positive for antibodies there

Bergamo is like one big care home - population much older than elsewhere, all living close together in groups, houses close together, very sociable hugging, kissing culture.... a big care home

From the Zoe study Tea

I think the numbers are low because of testing protocols. They haven’t really extended who they test en masse. So many are probably getting it and just having mild symptoms but all under the radar because they didn’t get tested.

While I don't think the disease is a "total" scam, it's definitely been exaggerated, by the government and the media. Look at previous times they've cried wolf: the millennium bug, your mobile phone is killing you, terrorists/immigrants/paedophiles round every corner. I'm sure the government sees this as a very important test case of how easily they can control the public. They said compliance was higher than expected, and I think we should (especially now the risk is lower) be rebelling and demanding our rights back more, especially about children's education, to show we're not as docile as they think.

And I'm not joking about that; aspiring future leaders are watching with interest. The government have consistently told us as little as they can get away with about easing lockdown, while throwing endless scary figures at us, and doing a lot to appear to be reasonable, while keeping the real power by forcibly keeping businesses closed. Keeping the toilets closed is a subtle but effective way to stop us moving as much as we would like: notice how many threads there are about it here.

Doing it’s less that people had it, more that that level of population can get it which is in contrast to 80% not susceptible.

Unless older people are more susceptible of course and younger are not.

We are seeing a sustained drop in fatalities though, which suggests that overall numbers are lower.

Also as Mascotte says the T cell issue. Older people have been said to make antibodies over young. Which would mean young still susceptible but no antibodies.

Most Covid cases are caught either in a hospital or a care home so I’m not surprised the numbers are falling.

Just stay alert and we’ll all be fine :)