Why aren’t the numbers going back up?

[Mohiqo]

I went into lockdown a week before we were told to. We are the only household on our street who has rigorously stuck to all the lockdown rules. I say this to explain that I’ve been taking lockdown seriously!

But recently I’m starting to think that perhaps we can just start to live our lives normally again, like lots of other people are doing. Reason being that I don’t understand why the numbers aren’t going back up again. First it was VE Day, then the impact of Domgate, then more people slowly going back to work and the roads getting busier.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

The nature of exponential growth is that it is very slow at the start (when doubling means just ones and tens of people getting it) then seems to shoot up out on nowhere when doubling means hundreds or thousands getting it. And if R is just above one that will take a while. I'm not saying that we'll definitely go back there but if we do by the time we're seeing high numbers of cases it will be too late. We obviously can't stay in lockdown indefinitely but cases are still higher than when most countries have lifted lockdown and the tracking system doesn't seem fit for purpose. It feels to me like we've taken a course of horrible medicine (lockdown) and are now stopping before taking the last few doses needed to get the full benefit. I hope that I'm wrong about this.

Scary degrees of ignorance and hysteria being shown here. First there was the hysteria about locking down and now opening up.

The virus is still here but the current rate in the community is very low. Sadly, it is a statistical game so, if most follow guidelines, even roughly, a minority can behave like absolute morons and cases still won’t go up (a bit like a minority of moronic anti vaxers don’t precipitate a measles epidemic).

The r number if no measures taken was 2.5-3. It looks like it is around 1 now. If we went back to full normality, it is an open question as to where it would be, but certainly well above 1, and we will be back on the exponential curve again, with a slightly lower r, but it does not matter, as cases will still keep growing until we reach genuine herd immunity.

In some states in the U.S cases are already growing again. Viruses do what they do, you cannot wish them away.

Has anyone on MN been contacted due to test and track? I think that, currently, it is a fiction...

Because most of the lockdown easing has only included opening up outdoor spaces, where transmissions is low.
Cinemas, restaurants, pubs and going in other people’s houses are the activities that cause greatest transmission.

@larrygrylls

Has anyone on MN been contacted due to test and track? I think that, currently, it is a fiction...

Really? I can assure you that people are being phoned up. It’s my job, after all. I honestly can’t believe there are people out there who believe stuff like this

cyclingmad if you're going to make these claims, you need to provide evidence/sources to back them up.

Because community transmission is low.

It's low because of SD and because households aren't all mixing as usual and because there's no mass indoor gatherings.

The r number if no measures taken was 2.5-3. It looks like it is around 1 now. If we went back to full normality, it is an open question as to where it would be, but certainly well above 1, and we will be back on the exponential curve again, with a slightly lower r, but it does not matter, as cases will still keep growing until we reach genuine herd immunity.

I agree with Larry on this post.

I'm interested in those who think the virus is a scam explain the excess deaths worldwide etc.

What exactly do you think has happened?

Do you think Spanish flu was a scam too?

When you mention people breaking lockdown, much of these activities were outside so even if people were together the chances of infection were very low.

Despite half of Mumsnet thinking you only have to breathe within a metre of someone to be sure to catch it this has never been the case.

MN is hilarious at times. We have the doom mongers on one side, who despite having any qualifications or scientific background are out here predicting second waves and then we have the conspiracy theorists who think it is all made up.

Thankfully we have some sensible people as well.

It is incredibly insensitive to the families and friends of those that have died and those with life changing outcomes to continue pushing conspiracy theories.

I can't believe that people still believe such bollocks.

So why aren’t the diagnosed cases climbing back up again?

Because we are not living our normal lives. Many people are working from home, no one going to bars, restaurants, concerts, parties, theatres, hairdressers or cafes in the way we normally would.

@cyclingmad Can you please tell us exactly who is trying to control us and to what ends?

You think how could a government allownthidn, well they are all controlled or bought into line

By whom? every government? North Korea? Russia? There is 'a group of powerful people' in control of all these very different governments? I cannot get straight answers from anyone who believes these conspiracies.

Has anyone on MN been contacted due to test and track? I think that, currently, it is a fiction...

I disagree with everything in your first post but I am totally convinced that at this time and in the medium term, test and trace is just a placebo, a It is not even properly finished, and it will be months before it operates efficiently, it is just a marketing exercise of the government to Give us a false sense of security to convince us, the measures they are currently taking are “safe”.

The 'scam' hypothesis falls apart if you believe any other credible thing is true. Can't explain why numbers are exploding in South America & rising in North America. Can't explain why the excess deaths (in every country) didn't get noticed until February. Relies on surveillance for emerging diseases to be extremely poor (in every single country). Says that all the scientific understanding about SARS-2 being a stable genome must be wrong. Likes conspiracy theories about Bill Gates or 5G or covid 'dark matter' to distract from the irrationality of the preceding.

BG is already filthy rich, what does he care about conquering the world -- or why would he try to do that now?

If covid is a scam then New Zealand, Australia, Germany... aren't countries that responded well to covid. It's just coincidence they have low numbers. They didn't manage any better than UK or Yemen for that matter.

@Oblomov20. I was one of the people who thought we would see a new peak after the VE Day celebrations. I am very happy to be wrong.

TheMother,

What in particular do you disagree with in my first post and why?

On the VE Day spike it’s a slower ship to turn than that I reckon. It would take longer, more sustained normal activity for R to go up rather than mostly SD outside activity for one day.

I think the issue with track and trace at the moment is that, if you are following the rules (and the majority still are pretty well) you won’t have any/many contacts outside of your own home. In order to be a “contact” you need to be closer than 2m for 15 minutes or more. If you are keeping 2m away from everyone then realistically your only contacts are likely to be members of your own household.

I am back in the office now and there is tape on the floor showing where we can stand etc. Despite being there all week I don’t think anyone there would be a “contact” of mine for contact tracing purposes.

There will be some instances where people have more contacts, schools, childcare, care homes etc. So contact tracing will be needed in those instances. In addition as things continue to open up the number of contacts people have is likely to increase.

As number of contacts increase, test and trace will have more of an impact. I suspect that once the app is in place they will consider reducing the 2m rule. I think realistically they did need to get the system up and running whilst case numbers and number of contacts was low. It might not have huge numbers of contacts to deal with now but that may well change as things relax further.

Tracing is there but it is very labour intensive.

How do they get first contact? You give your number and they get notified if your test us positive? How do they get following numbers if you don’t have the people you were with (I guess they don’t?)

Most of the things you mentioned don't involve people being closer than 2m for 15 mins so cases will reduce.

Some of the US states that opened up quickly are seeing rises in hospital admissions though.

@MarshaBradyo

You tell them who you have been in contact with at the moment. Realistically under the current circumstances I don’t think many people are closer than 2m for more than 15 minutes with many/any people that they don’t know. There would be very limited numbers of “stranger” contacts for most people at the moment. That will change as things relax.

In Germany, you are required to fill out a form if you eat in a restaurant etc. If, going forward, we have a similar system here I would assume that you could say to the contact tracer “I had dinner in pizza express on Wednesday” and the contact tracer will get in touch with the restaurant and get the information on those who sat near you and contact them. The app might also help in those circumstances.

Track and trace is working well in the UAE.
It does work when it’s well managed and well resourced. Ours has been implemented since the start of lockdown.