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The Government were telling the truth. They followed scientific advice all along.

235 replies

NotEverythingIsBlackandWhite · 01/06/2020 20:14

www.thesun.co.uk/news/11757540/boris-advice-mistakes/

According to official papers released on Friday, Boris Johnson has been following the scientific advice all along. (Forgive me if I'm late to the party but I haven't seen anything about this until today).

It was SAGE who said we shouldn't lock down earlier.
It was SAGE who says Cheltenham and Stereophonics gigs should go ahead as they were low risk.
It was SAGE who said a travel ban would just postpone the epidemic by one month.
It was SAGE who, on February 18, wrongly advised "When there is sustained transmission in the UK, contact tracing will no longer be useful.”

Well done to Boris Johnson and the Govt for trusting in and following scientific advice (even though that advice turned out to be wrong).

Boris Johnson wasn't blindly taking own action after all. Even though SAGE got things wrong, it was right to follow their advice. It was and is a difficult situation but we need to give credit to BJ and co, where it is due.

OP posts:
Namenic · 02/06/2020 11:10

IF we do not know about the virus, then isn’t it better to be cautious? I think we were a lot more cautious about Ebola.

We had a chance to be cautious - I believe there were a couple of known infected people early on who were taken somewhere to be quarantined, but that did not carry on. We still have not learnt to be cautious because look how lockdown is being lifted with inadequate track and trace, only just requiring quarantining of inbound travellers

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 11:15

It's easy for all the armchair experts to criticise, but that's with the benefit of hindsight - any fool can do that

Test, test, test.

That was being said at the time.

It's taken a long time for the track and trace system to be set up - and we abandoned the initial tracing system at the start.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/19/failure-to-explain-uks-halt-to-mass-covid-19-testing-in-march-unacceptable

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 11:21

The CFR was thought to be about 1% - that's from the NERVAG minutes on the 21st February

app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/640968322003

SAGE minutes discuss the lockdown - but it seems that behavioural scientists thought the timing had to be right - because it might not last. How little did they know about how we have reacted.

I wonder what the behavioural scientists think now

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 11:22

Nervtag minutes

app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/folder/103551854721

Pepperwort · 02/06/2020 12:12

Some NHS managers were incompetent in normal times and the Covid crisis has really highlighted how unsuited to their jobs they really are.

I have been impressed with the way the NHS as a whole saw the issues, communicated the issues, communicated medical advice up and disseminated it through, and got moving. They reacted like the professionals they are to the crisis it was, despite it being a new virus and despite being underfunded for years. It has problems now and again, yes, as any large organisation does, and I have met individual staff who could be better. As a whole it has done its job.

On the government failures - I agree with chomalungma. Not all the medical advice was followed: our top politicians chose other priorities. This is supposed to be a democracy, as Johnson himself emphasised. That means we have the right and the duty to question those other priorities, especially in a medical crisis. Also, the science and the politics are now moving further apart, not closer.

ITonyah · 02/06/2020 12:18

In the interest of balance! I think the decision to hold Cheltenham and the other sporting events was idiotic.

Astabarista · 02/06/2020 12:22

To be fair it’s not hindsight. I’m saying the same things now as I did pre lockdown when I saw what was happening in Italy.

Mumratheevergiving · 02/06/2020 12:34

They weren't telling the truth over Dominic Cummings. The scientific advice has always been clear that moving the disease around the country (as had happened in Italy where exponential spread occurred as people travelled to second homes in other regions) should be avoided by instructing people to stay at home.

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 14:04

11th Feb view on public gatherings

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873748/12-spi-m-o-consensus-view-on-public-gatherings.pdf

The direct impact of stopping large public gatherings on the population-level spread of the epidemicis low, because they make up only a small proportion of an attendee’s contacts with other people.

However, stopping them would have effects on their other behaviours, which could have a larger impact on the epidemic spread.

On one hand, stopping some public gatherings could mean people replace this with other activities (i.e. playing football behind closed doors could mean fans watch the match in the pub), potentially slightly accelerating epidemic spread.

On the other hand, the message sent by stopping them would be expected to change people’s behaviour in other ways, potentially slowingepidemic spread. It is not possible to quantify either of these effect

I wonder if they debated shutting down pubs and restaurants in February as well as banning mass gatherings?

Yes - they did

The impact of stopping all leisure activities, including public gatherings such as at bars and restaurant, would be expected to have a much larger effect on the population-level spread of the epidemic. Smaller gatherings happen more frequently than larger ones so the cumulative effect is larger

The SAGE minutes a few days later

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888775/S0375_Seventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19_.pdf

"SAGE discussed a range of potential measures to delay spread, based on a paper by SPI-M."
Said mass gatherings would have little effect - but no discussion on bars and restaurants - I wonder why not?

RainMustFall · 02/06/2020 15:30

You are absolutely right OP but wasting your time on here which is an echo chamber for the predominantly left wingers who would rather cut off their own foot with a blunt knife than admit that the government did something right. Pretty much the equivalent of banging your head against a brick wall.

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 15:46

Meanwhile

The alert level

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52889711

On Wednesday last week, the prime minister told parliament's Liaison Committee that "we're coming down the Covid alert system from level 4 to Level 3 tomorrow, we hope, we're going to be taking a decision tomorrow".

Meanwhile back on May 10th - Boris in his speech

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020

"Over the period of the lockdown we have been in Level Four, and it is thanks to your sacrifice we are now in a position to begin to move in steps to Level Three"

Throughout this period of the next two months we will be driven not by mere hope or economic necessity. We are going to be driven by the science, the data and public health.

And I must stress again that all of this is conditional, it all depends on a series of big Ifs. It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice, to observe social distancing, and to keep that R down

togglethis · 02/06/2020 15:54

Agree with you @RainMustFall

If anyone doesn't subscribe to the government's daily covid email update, here is a link to the chief scientific adviser's article It's well worth reading in full but this para stood out for me in the light of some of the criticisms on here:
"As the Sage papers become available it is possible to track the evolution of thinking. It is possible to see how unknowns became known and where significant gaps in knowledge still exist. The papers also provide a chance to correct some of the misconceptions that have taken hold. Allowing many people to catch Covid to create widespread immunity was never an aim and never could have been with a committee comprised of many doctors who have spent their lives dedicated to improving health. Immunity on the other hand is something that prevents transmission and we all hope that a vaccine to induce immunity will become available."

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 16:02

Allowing many people to catch Covid to create widespread immunity was never an aim and never

TBH - reading the papers doesn't reveal much of an aim in how to stop the spread...except saying that we could shut down bars / restaurants etc and introduce social distancing - which was in early February.

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 16:19

An interesting view

www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-views-of-the-uk-2020-6-what-we-ve-learnt-from-sage-meeting-minutes-so-far/

Sage’s initial discussions appear largely academic, with little sense of urgency over putting in place measures to prepare for a UK outbreak. Throughout the early weeks, Sage talks about delaying rather the stopping a UK epidemic, using ‘worst case scenario’ planning borrowed from flu and seemingly without an urgent ramp of capacities to deal with the coronavirus. Eight meetings in, on 18 February, it still talks about a UK outbreak in hypotheticals: “should there be an outbreak of Covid-19 in the UK,” it says.

It’s not until early-to-mid March that minutes get longer, attendance higher and a keen sense of urgency on multiple fronts is apparent. Attendance goes from as few as eight scientists at a meeting in February to as many as 50 in April and May, and minutes go from as little as a single page to four pages long.

TabbyMumz · 02/06/2020 17:41

"The point of the post is hopefully to put an end to the constant Boris bashing on something we know nothing about, a new virus - we were being told all along that Boris was following the science and not allowing any ego to get in the way, but MN knows different."
A lot of people on MN will never change, they will never stop picking holes in everything the govt do. I think theyve done a great job, what with the millions spent on furlough and all sorts of different schemes to help people. Theyvd updated us regularly, giving lots of info.

togglethis · 02/06/2020 17:57

Yes, @tabbymumz. I don’t think they’ve got everything right but they aren’t the evil murderers or incompetent bunglers alleged so often.

I note that various questions I asked in reference to anti-govt statements upthread have not been answered.

weepingwillow22 · 02/06/2020 17:59

@togglethis So what exactly have they got right?

Here is a timeline of utter failure and criminal negligence by Boris Johnson and his government. It reveals the shambolic way they have handled Covid-19 from the start.

December 31st China alerts WHO to new virus.

January 23rd Study reveals a third of China’s patients require intensive care.

January 24th Boris Johnson misses first Cobra meeting.

January 29th Boris Johnson misses second Cobra meeting.

January 31st The NHS declares first ever ‘Level 4 critical incident’ Meanwhile, the government declines to join European scheme to source PPE.

February 5th Boris Johnson misses third Cobra meeting.

February 12th Boris Johnson misses fourth Cobra meeting. Exeter University published study warning Coronavirus could infect 45 million people in the UK if left unchallenged.

February 13th Boris Johnson misses conference call with European leaders.

February 14th Boris Johnson goes away on holiday. Aides are told keeps Johnson’s briefing notes short or he will not read them.

February 18th Johnson misses fifth cobra meeting.

February 26th Boris Johnson announces ‘Herd Immunity’ strategy, announcing some people will lose loved ones. Government document is leaked, predicting half a million Brits could die in ‘worse case scenario’

February 29th Boris Johnson retreats to his country manor. NHS warns of ‘PPE shortage nightmare’ Stockpiles have dwindled or expired after years of austerity cuts.

March 2nd Boris Johnson attends his first Cobra meeting, declining another opportunity to join European PPE scheme. Government’s own scientists say over half a million Brit’s could die if virus left unrestrained. Johnson tells country “We are very, very well prepared.”

March 3rd Scientists urge Government to advise public not to shake hands. Boris Johnson brags about shaking hands of Coronavirus patients.

March 4th Government stops providing daily updates on virus following a 70% spike in UK cases. They will later U-turn on this amid accusations they are withholding vital information.

March 5th Boris Johnson tells public to ‘wash their hands and business as usual’

March 7th Boris Johnson joins 82,000 people at Six Nations match.

March 9th After Ireland cancels St Patrick’s day parades, the government says there’s “No Rationale” for cancelling sporting events.

March 10th - 13th Cheltenham takes place, more than a quarter of a million people attend.

March 11th 3,000 Atletico Madrid fans fly to Liverpool.

March 12th Boris Johnson states banning events such as Cheltenham will have little effect. The Imperial College study finds the government’s plan is projected to kill half a million people.

March 13th The FA suspends the Premier League, citing an absence of Government guidance. Britain is invited to join European scheme for joint purchase of ventilators, and refuses. Boris Johnson lifts restrictions of those arriving from Coronavirus hot spots.

March 14th Government is still allowing mass gatherings, as Stereophonics play to 5,000 people in Cardiff.

March 16th Boris Johnson asks Britons not to go to pubs, but allows them to stay open. During a conference call, Johnson jokes that push to build new ventilators should be called ‘Operation Last Gasp’

March 19th Hospital patients with Coronavirus are returned to care homes in a bid to free up hospital space. What follows is a boom of virus cases in care homes.

March 20th The Government states that PPE shortage crisis is “Completely resolved” Less than two weeks later, the British Medical Association reports an acute shortage in PPE.

March 23rd UK goes into lockdown.

March 26th Boris Johnson is accused of putting ‘Brexit over Breathing’ by not joining EU ventilator scheme. The government then state they had not joined the scheme because they had ‘missed the email’

April 1st The Evening Standard publishes that just 0.17% of NHS staff have been tested for the virus.

April 3rd The UK death toll overtakes China.

April 5th 17.5 million Antibody tests, ordered by the government and described by Boris Johnson as a ‘game changer’ are found to be a failure.

April 7th Boris Johnson is moved to intensive care with Coronavirus.

April 16th Flights bring 15,000 people a day into the UK - without virus testing.

April 17th Health Secretary Matt Hancock says “I would love to be able to wave a magic wand and have PPE fall from the sky.” The UK has now missed four opportunities to join the EU’s PPE scheme.

April 21st The Government fails to reach its target of face masks for the NHS, as it is revealed manufactures offers of help were met with silence. Instead millions of pieces of PPE are being shipped from the UK to Europe.

April 23rd - 24th Government announces testing kits for 10 million key workers. Orders run out within minutes as only 5,000 are made available.

April 25th UK death toll from Coronavirus overtakes that of The Blitz.

April 30th Boris Johnson announces the UK has succeeded in avoiding a tragedy that had engulfed other parts of the world - At this point, The UK has the 3rd highest death toll in the world.

May 1st The Government announces it has reached its target of 100,000 tests - They haven’t conducted the tests, but posted the testing kits.

May 5th The UK death toll becomes the highest in Europe.

May 6th Boris Johnson announces the UK could start to lift lockdown restrictions by next week.

Babdoc · 02/06/2020 18:18

I find it interesting that everyone seems keen to bash Boris, while lauding Sturgeon, for their relative handling of the pandemic.
Boris missed 5 COBRA meetings- Sturgeon missed 6.
Boris gets castigated for not sacking Cummings - who has not demonstrably infected anyone.
Sturgeon covered up the Covid outbreak at the Edinburgh Nike conference, failed to inform close contacts at the hotel and allowed one of them to travel to England, infecting the whole North East via a kids party, resulting in thousands of deaths.
It seems people value spin and presentation over facts and outcomes.

weepingwillow22 · 02/06/2020 18:43

Sturgeon has been chairing the Scottish Government’s resilience committee (for which she is directly responsible) since the end of January.

Since health is fully devolved under the Scotland Act, this is the body that holds more relevance to Scotland, than Cobra, which is not responsible for health in Scotland.

chomalungma · 02/06/2020 18:44

I wonder if we'll ever get to see the Cobra minutes?

It does seem from the Sage ones that there didn't seem to be a sense of urgency till Mid March.

I wonder what Cobra was thinking?

iwantmysay · 02/06/2020 22:15

failed to inform close contacts at the hotel and allowed one of them to travel to England, infecting the whole North East via a kids party, resulting in thousands of deaths

Any proof of this?

You bemoan the lack of evidence and facts! lol!

TwigTheWonderKid · 02/06/2020 23:16

@LastTrainEast

I don't know where people are getting this "other countries did better" thing. Relative to population we're still not the worst off.
That's just plain wrong. From where do you get the eveidence t back that assertion? Currently the UK has 580 deaths per million of the population, this is higher than any other country in Europe apart from Belgium, and higher than the USA or even Brazil.
Humphriescushion · 03/06/2020 07:28

Yes and remember Belguim has a very wide count of covid deaths and is probably very accurate.

strugglingwithdeciding · 04/06/2020 00:56

@TwigTheWonderKid but not all are reporting all deaths we include all some don't include in the community etc so hard to make direct comparison

strugglingwithdeciding · 04/06/2020 01:01

@weepingwillow what the Eu ppe scheme which never delivered in time ?
And how about the WHO who advises not to shut borders ?
Lots of Mia information about at first
Yes There has been mistakes but hindsight is great , but nightingale hospitals being built and funded and other things being done are good , you can't knock every single thing without at least acknowledging something that was done right

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