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The Government were telling the truth. They followed scientific advice all along.

235 replies

NotEverythingIsBlackandWhite · 01/06/2020 20:14

www.thesun.co.uk/news/11757540/boris-advice-mistakes/

According to official papers released on Friday, Boris Johnson has been following the scientific advice all along. (Forgive me if I'm late to the party but I haven't seen anything about this until today).

It was SAGE who said we shouldn't lock down earlier.
It was SAGE who says Cheltenham and Stereophonics gigs should go ahead as they were low risk.
It was SAGE who said a travel ban would just postpone the epidemic by one month.
It was SAGE who, on February 18, wrongly advised "When there is sustained transmission in the UK, contact tracing will no longer be useful.”

Well done to Boris Johnson and the Govt for trusting in and following scientific advice (even though that advice turned out to be wrong).

Boris Johnson wasn't blindly taking own action after all. Even though SAGE got things wrong, it was right to follow their advice. It was and is a difficult situation but we need to give credit to BJ and co, where it is due.

OP posts:
Clavinova · 04/06/2020 17:23

Johnson went ahead with the 14 day travel quarantine, despite the scientists saying it's a waste of time now and that incoming travellers have more to fear from UK border force officials.

The Times today;

"Scientists hit out at plans for quarantine"
Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh...
Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia...

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-scientists-hit-out-at-plans-for-quarantine-02x9s2vhh

It's a story because the government delayed lockdown so they could have a party.

Previously from Mark Woolhouse and Paul Hunter -

March 10 Would a lockdown work for the UK?

Professor Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, said a lockdown probably would not be appropriate here but that measures in this country are likely to be stepped up as the disease progresses.

He said: "We are currently seeing a much more gradual increase in numbers and these are already distributed throughout the UK, unlike the situation in Italy where cases were concentrated in a single region.

"More rigorous social distancing measures are likely to be implemented in the UK over coming days or weeks as case numbers increase.But the timing of their introduction will be chosen to hopefully maximise the benefit whilst minimising the harm to British society."

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/reason-coronavirus-spread-rapidly-italy-17898170

March 12 Expert reaction to Trump suspending travel to US from 26 countries in the Schengen border-free travel area of Europe.

Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, UEA, said: “It is uncertain what the US intends to achieve with the recently announced travel ban to the Schengen area of Europe. Many of us have been pointing out since the COVID-19 epidemic began that travel bans have a poor record on preventing the spread of epidemic diseases. At best travel bans only delay the spread of an epidemic by a short while.

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-trump-suspending-travel-to-us-from-26-countries-in-the-schengen-border-free-travel-area-of-europe/

Why is the UK approach to coronavirus so different to other countries?

This stance appears at odds with the World Health Organization (WHO), which has called on countries to “take urgent and aggressive action”.

“That to me translates into hit hard, early,” says Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK.

But Woolhouse is broadly supportive of the UK government’s approach.That is partly because he believes it is more sustainable over time than that of the WHO, which he says appears to want to eradicate the virus entirely, like with SARS, rather than learning to live with a virus that may be here to stay.

“At some point, I suspect the WHO is going to have to change its position to something like the UK government’s, and not the other way around,” he says.

www.newscientist.com/article/2237385-why-is-the-uk-approach-to-coronavirus-so-different-to-other-countries/#ixzz6OPdcJMTt

Based on their previous expert opinion should we introduce the quarantine or not?

Clavinova · 04/06/2020 17:31

Why is the UK approach to coronavirus so different to other countries?

This article was published March 13.

SmileEachDay · 04/06/2020 17:43

There are 55 members of SAGE. Only 24 of them are actual independent scientists. The rest have various government briefs.

🤷🏻‍♀️

iwantmysay · 04/06/2020 17:47

Having read that NS article, i don't think it has made the Governments decisions & handling of CV look any better at all.

Devi Sridhar at the University of Edinburgh thinks the UK government’s approach is wrong. “Other countries have shown speed is crucial. There is a middle path between complete shutdown and carrying on as normal,” she tweeted, citing examples of stopping large public gatherings, stopping non-essential travel and urging employers to allow home working

A great pity she wasn't listened too and she still isn't.

Clavinova · 04/06/2020 17:57

Having read that NS article, i don't think it has made the Governments decisions & handling of CV look any better at all.

Should we follow the advice of Mark Woolhouse and Paul Hunter now regarding the quarantine?

Clavinova · 04/06/2020 18:23

Devi Sridhar at the University of Edinburgh thinks the UK government’s approach is wrong.

Although I think Devi Sridhar ought to read through some of her old tweets and quotes -

Devi Sridhar May 30 2020 -

"For me, the pivotal moment was reading Jan 24th Lancet paper on clinical profile of patients infected with #SARSCoV2 (this was not just the flu). By Jan 16th, clear it would become a global problem. All pointed to need to treat COVID-19 like SARS or MERS event."
8:37 AM · May 30, 2020

Devi Sridhar - 3:45 PM · Feb 17, 2020

WHO clearly saying it is NOT calling #COVID19 a pandemic b/c majority of cases are in China & majority of cases outside of China have direct link to China. @ DrMikeRyan #factsnotfear

Quoted late Jan/early Feb -

“Right now, you’re probably more likely to be catching flu than you are to be getting coronavirus,” said Devi Sridhar, chair in global public health at the University of Edinburgh.

chomalungma · 04/06/2020 18:33

WHO clearly saying it is NOT calling #COVID19 a pandemic b/c majority of cases are in China & majority of cases outside of China have direct link to China. @ DrMikeRyan #factsnotfear

Quoted late Jan/early Feb -

“Right now, you’re probably more likely to be catching flu than you are to be getting coronavirus,” said Devi Sridhar, chair in global public health at the University of Edinburgh.

Those things could have been true AT THAT TIME
So at that time, it technically wasn't a pandemic - but it was going to become one.

And in late Jan / Early Feb - you would no doubt have been more likely to catch flu than to catch Covid-10

scaevola · 04/06/2020 19:14

WHO declared a PHEIC on 30 January and a pandemic on 11 March

(PHEIC = Public Health Emergency of International Concern)

These definitions require escalations of actions by member states, and also are relevant to the release of funds

Clavinova · 04/06/2020 19:15

Except that she tweeted -

"By Jan 16th, clear it would become a global problem." on May 30

  • not dissimilar to the Dominic Cummings' edit.
chomalungma · 04/06/2020 21:38

not dissimilar to the Dominic Cummings' edit

Not really.

Because he did edit his blog.

She may have thought it would become a pandemic in January but it is also true that WHO hadn't declared a pandemic when she tweeted that.

Cummings did edit his blog - a bit like editing a post on here from January so you could predict what was coming - but editing it in June.

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