As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

now we're stopping doing that off it goes again

But.... We're not?

Surely it's obvious why people are concerned?

We know that the virus is transmitted very easily and the virus has only been controlled by severely restricting social interaction, so any return to normal social interaction risks a return to exponential infection rates.

That's not what the government seem to think?

And with such a great track record too?

So for many many months its been perfectly fine to fly into the UK and then disappear into the community BUT from the 8th June, they need to be quarantined as they will suddenly pose a huge risk to us all........

Then there is track and trace, the app, PPE, care homes or even Cummings!

@Drivingdownthe101 , perhaps the people in my area would do what they did in Italy and get in their cars and drive out of this "local lockdown ". What with it being a free country. We'd need firm bylaws and the threat of martial law to impose lockdowns. Is that really a road you want to go down? If you pardon the pun.

so any return to normal social interaction risks a return to exponential infection rates

I don't know what your normal is but this is certainly nothing like mine. I mean I've never queued to get into a supermarket before and yet we are still doing it? I still can't see family and friends less than 2m away. My child still can't go to school.

Lockdown hasn't been released to anything like "normal" and I find it incredibly strange that people are suggesting it has.

@iwantmysay ok well you believe we're all doomed to certain death and I don't. No point arguing about it because you're obviously enjoying thinking the worst.

so any return to normal social interaction risks a return to exponential infection rates

Yeah I get that. But we’re not returning to normal social interactions.

The majority of our children still can’t go to school.
They can’t play together out of school unless they can maintain 2m social distancing.
We can’t go to gigs/theatres/cinemas/theme parks/playgrounds/cafes/restaurants/soft play/sporting events.
We can’t play team sports.
Many many people still can’t go to their offices.
We are using far less public transport.
We can’t see friends or family in our homes.
Grandparents can’t care for grandchildren.
We can’t go on holiday.

The only social interactions we can have are in groups of 6 or fewer, outdoors, from 2m away. How on earth is that ‘a return to normal social interaction’?

Is that really a road you want to go down? If you pardon the pun

No, not really. But it sounds like your area is being massively irresponsible while others aren’t, so I also don’t want to see a full lockdown because some idiots in some areas can’t be sensible. I don’t know what the answer is, luckily I’m also not the one having to make those decisions.

Speaks volumes if you think anyone asking questions and doubting our illustrious leaders is "enjoying this". Is that you, Mr Johnson? Ready to wheel out bullshit about "doomsters and gloomsters"?

"I also don’t want to see a full lockdown because some idiots in some areas can’t be sensible"
That is, if you recall, why we went into lockdown in the first place rather than follow the "herd immunity" strategy .

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52867140

This weekend on the South Coast - before restrictions had been lifted.

(And thats before you consider the wisdom of the people using their 'common sense' to decide that yes, it is a good idea to jump off Durdle Door, and yes, one can still go to the beach even when the path is blocked by closed signs )

I do recall that of course, it wasn’t all that long ago.

@bellinisurge you very clearly are enjoying it. You can't accept that it's just your own personal view and not everywhere is full of evil rule breakers. You're absolutely sure a second wave will happen. You don't want to hear the positives.

I don't like Boris. I think many mistakes have been made.

What the actual fuck do you think we can do about that now? We can only move forwards.

Sitting indoors crying about what next door are doing and worrying about your impending death is probably making YOU feel worse. It's not solving anything. Its not making anyone else behave differently.

No, i don't enjoy thinking the worst at all but i just do not understand how anyone can think that as we ease restrictions (whilst still at level 4 of the govt's own targets) is not going to cause a large increase in CV cases.

8000 new daily cases, an R rate close to 1 and no working TnT system in place until the end of june, no app either, despite an on the shelf app ready to use.

The rules are fine.

There are a few idiots who are breaking the rules. That isn't the fault of the government, the rules, or the NHS' limitations, that is the fault of those idiots.

I don't know why there is this massive desire to converge on beaches and then do stupid things. But I suspect that if we banned people going to beaches they'd converge elsewhere (possibly indoors, which is massively more risky) and do stupid things there instead.

I agree with the pps who've said that we are not heading back to anything like normal and I think the risk of a second wave is overstated.

Also, as has been said a million trillion times, covid is not flu. So what happened in 1918/1919 is not relevant.

But we’re not returning to normal social interactions.

The concern is that, compared to other countries, restrictions are being lifted when infection levels are still too high, and monitoring systems aren't properly in place, so there is very little room for error.

iwantmysay scientists are saying that 10% of positive cases are responsible for 80% of new infections. As long as we don’t allow these ‘superspreader’ events (in the main believed to be large indoor gatherings), then we should not see a huge rise in cases. Seeing up to 6 people outside at a 2m distance is not a high risk event.

as we ease restrictions (whilst still at level 4 of the govt's own targets) is not going to cause a large increase in CV cases

Restrictions have been eased. None of them allow people to get close to one another. Except perhaps primary schools.

In primary schools they're in tiny groups and will ALL have to isolate if one tests positive. There's also a million other hygiene regs in place.

A study in Iceland did not find one single case where a child has passed it to a parent. Not one.

I honestly don't see how these very minor easings will cause a huge second spike. A slight rise? Perhaps. But then that's expected isn't it?

If Boris has said right folks all back to normal I'd be concerned too but that's not what's happened.

"@bellinisurge you very clearly are enjoying it. "

Are you fucking kidding?

No I'm really not fucking kidding.

Someone who's genuinely worried, hears a positive point and thinks oh, that's good isn't it?

Someone who's enjoying the negativity takes that positive point and disputes it. Flips it to a negative. Disbelives it. But... But... But....

If I were genuinely worried and someone pointed out that perhaps it wasn't as bad as I thought... I'd be relieved.

I don't know why there is this massive desire to converge on beaches and then do stupid things.

They are going to the beach because they don't have anything else to do, and they are doing stupid things because they lack the experience and knowledge to judge whether they are doing a stupid thing.

They have been told to use their 'common sense', but common sense doesn't get you very far in a completely unfamiliar situation.

That isn't the fault of the government, the rules, or the NHS' limitations, that is the fault of those idiots.

Regardless of who is at fault, we will all have to deal with the consequences if it becomes apparent that social distancing isn't being maintained a level that will control spread of the virus.

May I introduce you to the concept of democratic discussion and the internet .
This isn't something resolved by Pollyanna cheerfulness.

A slight rise puts the R rate above 1, so the infection will spread.

Have a look at how Merkel explained a 0.1 increase in R would overwhelm the germany health service a month earlier.

Many people are not obeying these restrictions, if they have a small garden they will still invite more than 6 around, they'll all use the loo and they not clean after each use, those with bigger gardens will have even more round... who is going to split up a family or not invite certain friends and stick to six? they'll round up.
& pretty soon they'll be all cheering around the TV as Liverpool take on whoever!

However, the NHS has the capacity, at present, to cope, so it will be deemed a success,

If I were genuinely worried and someone pointed out that perhaps it wasn't as bad as I thought... I'd be relieved

Its not backed up by the evidence, its just a wish.

@bellinisurge

May I introduce you to the concept of democratic discussion and the internet . This isn't something resolved by Pollyanna cheerfulness.

Haha is that what you call a discussion? Just ignoring whatever doesn't fit with your POV?

I knew that insult would come out sooner or later.

I am not reliant on cheerfulness but the facts. The new information that's coming out every day about the virus petering out etc is nice to read though.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic.

I wonder how people's mental health will fair? I'd count on those who enjoy the doom and gloom coming out worse than those who take a balanced view.