As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

Has there been the fabled second spike after VE day?

No, and there never was going to be one, a few outdoor congas and shared beers on driveways wasn't a big risk. I am more concerned about the protests as the conditions were very very different, more numbers, more closeness, shouting, face to face contact for longer periods. This time I very much want to be wrong

@wanderings.. Great post

@TerrapinStation

Has there been the fabled second spike after VE day?

No, and there never was going to be one, a few outdoor congas and shared beers on driveways wasn't a big risk. I am more concerned about the protests as the conditions were very very different, more numbers, more closeness, shouting, face to face contact for longer periods. This time I very much want to be wrong

Anyone who perceives coronavirus as a threat proportional to a lockdown should be extremely worried about the US 'scientific' response to the Black Lives Matter protests.

According to American scientists and doctors, we are meant to believe that coronavirus poses such a grave threat that we cannot go to work, school, places of worship, restaurants, theatres and so forth, but we can and should protest en masse because the threat of racism outstrips the threat of coronavirus.

Which other threats outstrip the risk of coronavirus? I can think of many: the economy, the breakdown of social life (goodbye 'little platoons'), the breakdown of education, growing distrust of scientific 'expertise', supply chain disruptions and mass starvation in LDCs, disruption of basic medical care, etc.

We had no VE day in ireland but Cork university hospital hospital is the busiest it's beed so far.

Maybe because people were staying away for all the reasons they thought were minor but they cannot do that indefinitely.
This is what willcause problems. People going nack to work, there will ne accidents. People cant put off minor procedures indefinitely.
Not trying to be a prophet of gloom but as soon as we start mixing the virus will spread. Personally predicting Oct and nov to be bad.

Terrapin station - although there are risks associated with the recent mass gatherings, those risks will be dwarfed by any lockdown relaxation. Mass gatherings are concentrated and don’t number in the millions.

According to American scientists and doctors, we are meant to believe that coronavirus poses such a grave threat that we cannot go to work, school, places of worship, restaurants, theatres and so forth, but we can and should protest en masse because the threat of racism outstrips the threat of coronavirus.

Not just that but they also specifically state that protesting against lockdown is still dangerous and shouldn't be done. Thinking back to those protests it was dozens of people at most. More dangerous than thousands crammed together shouting though apparently.

@FromEden

According to American scientists and doctors, we are meant to believe that coronavirus poses such a grave threat that we cannot go to work, school, places of worship, restaurants, theatres and so forth, but we can and should protest en masse because the threat of racism outstrips the threat of coronavirus.

Not just that but they also specifically state that protesting against lockdown is still dangerous and shouldn't be done. Thinking back to those protests it was dozens of people at most. More dangerous than thousands crammed together shouting though apparently.

The hypocrisy should worry everyone, although it won't.

I agree that mass public gatherings at the moment are are Covid concern. It would be political suicide to try and prevent them though.

It's an interesting bit of insight into the hypocrisy and dishonestly of the left.

If they really believe their own drivel, that covid19 has has 3% mortality rate, and that the only way to save the vulnerable is by staying home, then surely the BLM marches can wait until this existential threat passes? I thought that just a few more weeks of lockdown would save so many lives, many of them BAME?

Its thought 1 in a 1000 have CV, marches are outside, transmission rate is tiny.
If its ok to go on a busy tube and to work, then its an acceptable risk to march.

This pandemic has been handled by a UK right wing administration, we have the worst (or one of) deaths per million of any country in the world, so having a go at so called lefties is a bit of a distraction isn't it lol.

Would you not agree that BLM is a left movement?

The point is precisely that the left does not think that going to work is an acceptable risk, or that children returning to schools is an acceptable risk, or the re-opening of pubs, and so on.

The Johnson administration cannot by any yardstick be considered to be a right-wing government. He has nationalised the economy. He has yielded to the unions. He has made it an offence to go to work. Specifically how is this a right-wing administration?

Do you know any of the BLM organisers? so how do you know if they are right or left wing? and how is their political beliefs relevant?

Many people right and left agree with the aims of the BLM movement, just as they also think we entered lockdown too late and are coming out too quickly.
There isn't the school space/teachers or PPE to open schools, they realised this and then did a u turn, blaming the unions for their own incompetence, many so called left wing govt's have reopened schools, johnson hasn't done so because he doesn't care, he does about Zoos and pubs so they will reopen.

I think if you look at the specific individuals in Govt then yes right wing, their manifesto on immigration, privatisation and brexit it's right wing.
He has not made it an offence to go to work, thats rubbish, he closed down some sectors of the economy to the public but home working still allowed but anyone working in these could get another job in another sector.

Just because Sunak introduced furlough (correctly imho) doesn't make the tory party a moderate centralist party.

Nationalised the econmy lol!

Are you joking? One of their principle remits is the 'redistribution of wealth'.

In case you missed it, here's an excerpt from the letter of American scientists regarding the march.

....as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators’ ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders. Those actions not only oppose public health interventions, but are also rooted in white nationalism and run contrary to respect for Black lives.

I guess I've been scientifically proven to be a white nationalist as one who protests stay at home orders.

One of their principle remits is the 'redistribution of wealth'

I thought it was levelling up? whatever, proof is in the pudding, lets see what they actually do.

No party is going to stand up and say "we believe in keeping the poor poorer and making the rich richer"' but that's what we have isn't it.
Around 50% of those in work, too badly paid to pay any tax!!!

The poorest in society have been disproportionately hit by CV and the BAME community hit even harder, likely to do with their occupations and housing but they won't publish their own report into why, so we don't know for sure........

Read Britannia Unchained to see what leading members of this govt think and if you believe they are right or left wing?

The Johnson administration cannot by any yardstick be considered to be a right-wing government. He has nationalised the economy. He has yielded to the unions. He has made it an offence to go to work. Specifically how is this a right-wing administration?

You can be right wing socially - both in terms of nationalism and conservative social values, but adopt more socialist economic policy.

Previous tory governments in recent history have been socially more liberal but economically more conservative.

Both are still right wing.

If you want the argument about how you can't be right wing and economically socialist (whilst giving particular privilege to a chosen elite), I suggest you grab a history book before I have to invoke Godwin.

As it goes there was an up tick in the R in many places just after VE day, but not enough to produce a noticeable spike in cases, because the number of cases were fairly low. Which on the whole is good news, but also highlights that there is still a risk there. Which is part of the reason the government is appearing to be so twitchy about reopening school and allowing beer gardens to open earlier on the 22nd rather than the planned 4th July.

There is also now some concern in the US this week in certain parts of the country. A few states which had a limited shut down but have now reopened have had an uptick in cases and several are now nearly back to their highest point. Florida, Arizona and Texas are the ones I believe there is most concern about. The percentage of full ICU beds is higher than you'd think. The surge in cases in Florida has been put down to reopening coincidencing with Spring break.

However it's not just these states. 14 states in total just hit their highest 7-day average of #COVID19 cases this week: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Caroline, Mississippi, Oregon, South Caroline, Tennessee, Texas, Utah. Also non state Puerto Rico. Not all of these had a lock down nor initial first peak nor locked down though, so it's a very mixed picture there.

This seems to be going largely unreported due to the BLM events dominating the news, but does seem credible. It's worth keeping eyes on in coming weeks as a problem could well develop.

The US certainly does not look like it has things under control and it looks as if lockdown measures taken there may well have been lifted too early.

Time will tell.

All you people who are so certain that there will definitely be or definitely won't be a second wave have no clue what you're talking about.

Science talks about this in terms of risk, not absolutes.

You should all be talking about how we can lower the risk of it happening. Not whether it definitely will or definitely won't happen.

But you prefer to pick a side, wave banners at each other, and make the other side a sworn enemy.

Frankly its pathetic behaviour

You can be right wing socially - both in terms of nationalism and conservative social values, but adopt more socialist economic policy.

Please go on and tell me about all the socially conservative policies that hallmark Johnson's administration (better yet, his lockdown policy since that's what we're talking about). Releasing prisoners early to spare them from coronavirus? Cancelling the NHS migrant charge? Yielding to unions? Maintaining open borders as others close them?

I presume you rest this entirely on Brexit?

Oh. Having the first baby out of wedlock, ever, in 10 Downing St?

The spike from Feb through to April was not the second wave. If that were the case, we simply would have seen deaths from it just as everywhere else. To suggest that the first wave only infected people who were asymptomatic or showed mild symptoms is really ignorant of the virus, dismissive of expertise within the NHS for a start, and ignorant of the work that is going into understanding coronavirus all over the world.

I really despair of some of the ignorance on here. The government don't help you, their strategy is to muddy the waters constantly in the hope that they can't be held to account or be shown up as fucking idiots. Don't back them up with your own stupid conspiracy theories, for goodness sake.

The spike from Feb through to April was not the second wave. If that were the case, we simply would have seen deaths from it just as everywhere else. To suggest that the first wave only infected people who were asymptomatic or showed mild symptoms is really ignorant of the virus, dismissive of expertise within the NHS for a start, and ignorant of the work that is going into understanding coronavirus all over the world.

I don't understand why you're so invested in believing that it's implausible that there have been two waves. France had a confirmed case on Dec 27. The WHO has told states to examine earlier deaths to investigate this possibility.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUKKBN21D2IT

I'm not invested in anything. There will have been some isolated cases. That is not a wave. It's just insulting to everyone involved in trying to build up a picture of coronavirus to suggest that they've missed a massive number of cases.

(It's also symptomatic of a lack of real understanding coupled with the sheer arrogance that someone who is not an expert can contribute anything to the body of knowledge just because it seems to make some sort of sense in their minds.)

Insulting to miss a new virus before it's sequenced or even known? How?

Are you certain that you're not invested?