As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

I guess the thing we need to think about with this virus is that it hit us in Feb, march, when we were coming out of winter.

Basically the virus gave us a glancing blow.

We are seeing now with Brazil and India what the virus can do when it hits us with full force.

This winter, it has all winter to hit us. Without a vaccine or a treatment, the second wave could be much much worse than the first.

I think I'll be prepping for it.

Because we had a light lockdown by comparison to other countries and we are already fucking up our attempt to unlock it. Otherwise, it's all fiiiiiiine.

Without a vaccine or a treatment, the second wave could be much much worse than the first

Even with social distancing in place?

How can it be worse than the first when we weren't social distancing, schools were open as normal, everyone was getting on the train to work to packed offices?

I don't buy it.

Like I said it's fiiiiiiiiiiiiiine [increasingly fixed smile]

How much actual social distancing is going on near you? If it's anything like here, I suspect not much.

Realistically you have no fucking idea whether it's fine or not because nobody does do they? That's the thing with novel viruses.

It's a bit sick that people are eagerly waiting for it all to go tits up and people to die so they can say "I told you so".

@bellinisurge everywhere I have been has been fine!

We aren't coastal. We're rural ish and there's plenty of open space...

I suspect there is more social distancing going on than you realise.

The government have even admitted that they didn't expect as much compliance as they have got.

How much actual social distancing is going on near you? If it's anything like here, I suspect not much

Same as there has been throughout near us. Parks are busy but all household groups maintaining social distancing. People still being respectful in supermarkets etc. People meeting family outdoors with social distancing as per the guidance.
I must live an a more sensible area.

They talked about small range local lockdowns to deal with spikes of infection.

1. They tried that in Italy to start with and it failed miserably?
2. How are they going to inform everyone in the area concerned?
3. Barnard Fucking Castle - " oh, I've personally concluded it's ok to do such and such a mad thing because it doesn't apply to us"

@bellinisurge

They talked about small range local lockdowns to deal with spikes of infection.

1. They tried that in Italy to start with and it failed miserably?
2. How are they going to inform everyone in the area concerned?
3. Barnard Fucking Castle - " oh, I've personally concluded it's ok to do such and such a mad thing because it doesn't apply to us"

That was very different considering it was at the very start when we didn't know much about this.

1. The same way they've been informing the whole country about things perhaps? .

1. People are capable of making their own risk assessments.

I think we are forgetting that the vast majority of people survive this.

I have sensible neighbours on one side who had a garden full yesterday. We only have little gardens. I have dick stupid neighbours on the other who had even more people.

"People are capable of making their own risk assessments. "
Yes, that's worked out brilliantly.

Ok and what point does that prove?

Yes, that's worked out brilliantly

Has it? I don't think we can ascertain there has been more deaths due to people's choices right now.

Despite all the hand wringing and wailing on FB on the whole it seems that people round me are following guidance, pockets maybe not, but generally people are.

Lovely. As long as you wash your hands and keep social distancing, that's what we need. Not being sarcastic.
Perhaps I've seen too many stupid knobs in our area to have faith in most people being sensible.

We always notice the bad though don't we?

You don't register people who are just doing the right thing...

Like all the threads on MN about rule breakers... There will be hundreds more people not breaking the rules but nobodies gonna write a thread about that because it's entirely unremarkable isn't it?

bellinisurge I must have more sensible neighbours! Once side haven’t had anyone round, the other side had grandparents round for 20 mins yesterday, who sat the other side of the garden.

Despite all the hand wringing and wailing on FB on the whole it seems that people round me are following guidance, pockets maybe not, but generally people are

You don't need too many people to be breaking the guidance for it to become a huge problem for us all.

Anyone here on either side of the argument a virologist? No?

You're all very confidently arguing your sides, despite the fact you've no expertise. You're all as bad as each other.

One side of this will be correct, but then... a stopped clock and all that.

You don't need too many people to be breaking the guidance for it to become a huge problem for us all

That's not what the government seem to think?

I dont think you need to be a virologist to understand that coronavirus hasn't magically disappeared just because people are bored of lockdown. We know quote a bit about it and how it spreads now. We disrupted its spread by locking and social distancing and now we're stopping doing that off it goes again.

"We always notice the bad though don't we?"
Thanks for patronising.

Yes, I do see good stuff. But I see enough stupidity and carelessness for it to be worth remarking upon.
This isn't nursery where all the little children are mainly good with a bit of naughty behaviour that's rare.

I wasn't patronising! And I said we like everyone not a personal insult to you!

Ok then. You just carry on judging based on your neighbours and nowt else. I mean, it's only you you're hurting by convincing yourself you're doomed. You carry on.

So its possible then that areas like yours bellinisurge where the majority aren’t social distancing will need locking down again, whereas areas like mine where the vast majority are being cautious and sensible won’t.