As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

"Seeing up to 6 people outside at a 2m distance is not a high risk event."

Obviously the people in the picture are standing together because of the rescue helicopter, but they travelled to Durdle Door from all over the South East.

Again, when this happened we were still at 'meet 1 person from another household' stage.

We don't know how easy it will be for people to keep to the 2m rule or what the effect will be on R. We do know that, compared to other countries, we don't have much leeway, and we don't yet have an effective tracking system. We know this because this is what we have been told by the government's advisors.

@iwantmysay

If I were genuinely worried and someone pointed out that perhaps it wasn't as bad as I thought... I'd be relieved

Its not backed up by the evidence, its just a wish.

What's just a wish??

@bellinisurge

I'm not ignoring your infantile cheeriness. I entirely understand that confidence plays an important part of getting the country back economically. I'm drawing your attention to the fact that this isn't CBeebiesland and grown ups do have the right to ask questions. If you think that constitutes crying in my house, you need to think a little harder.

Why is it infantile to look at the facts and make a reasonable assumption that we are not all going to die in 2 weeks time?

Of course you have the right to ask questions. So do I.

Somehow though it's ok to call me names for having an opinion and yet I am "infantile".

You are determined that I think we're all going to die in two weeks. Doesn't sound very factual to me. Perhaps you need to double check what factual means as well.

I very clearly meant I base my own view on the actual facts.

You obviously think (fear?) The worst.

Do you feel the same about everyone who's unknowingly passed it on?!

It's possible to have sympathy for someone and also think they exercised poor judgement (performatively shaking hands after being warned of the risks), and are not doing a good job as PM.

I find his insistence on 'common sense' particularly concerning.

I hope for the best and consider the likelihood of that not happening. Have a lovely jolly time ignoring reality.

Why is it infantile to look at the facts and make a reasonable assumption that we are not all going to die in 2 weeks time?

No one thinks Cv will kill us all in 2 weeks.

Buts its fanciful(or wishful) to think that on the balance of what we know about CV and respiratory illnesses in general, that easing restrictions too quickly, without the means to stamp down on local infection hotspots is a great idea.

So what is vital is to try and get the NHS back treating and testing all those conditions it hasn't been recently but if it does spend time treating even a minor increase in CV, then it won't be and many more will suffer.

Where I am they aren't even considering opening up till September.

The outbreak in Korea though was linked to poor practices in a manufacturing/distribution centre.

Not sure why that then resulted in closing the schools.

Once you know where an outbreak has occurred, you really want to stop the people impacted mixing with others. Because people can have the virus with no symptoms, it's not just those suffering from the virus that need to be isolated.

Children who have been exposed to the virus at home would, at school, mix with and potentially infect others, who then take it back to their own families.

as deadly as a bee sting

Goodness, just remind me how many doctors, nurses and health care worked have died of CV contacted during the course of their work.

IMO, any such death is a matter of shame on the whole country.

I noted that the inquests into these deaths were directed to not investigate the impact of lacking PPE

That for me goes beyond shame into criminality.

@bellinisurge

I hope for the best and consider the likelihood of that not happening. Have a lovely jolly time ignoring reality.

Ignoring reality how exactly?

that easing restrictions too quickly

But I don't believe we are easing restrictions too quickly.

8000 new daily cases, an R rate close to 1

I think if you’re really worried it would be prudent to take some time to delve into the facts, educate yourself and keep abreast of developments.

Hospital admissions are dropping like a stone. Even with the new cases. What does this tell you? We now don’t only test hospital admissions, we do community testing, coupled with the drop in hospital admissions and icu beds being taken, what does this tell you?

The r rate is close to one across the board, but it’s split into three categories, community, care homes and hospitals

If you look at community alone, it’s likely about 0.5 or below. The other two categories are where it is spreading. What does this tell you?

We have been loosening restrictions for a couple of weeks now. We have had bank holiday weekends In the mix, there has been no peak following these, hospital admissions continue to drop, as does the amount of people in icu. What does this tell you?

Looking at the headline numbers and then running round your living room with your pants on your head screaming in panic only hurts you. Although when you start to post it on line, others may be influenced. It’s one thing to be deeply concerned, terrified even, but take responsibility and read up on the facts to try to help yourself out of it.

I've been to my local park today. Everyone I've come across looks to be still keeping distancing.
It's the quietest I've seen it and I assume that's because with more places open, there's space to spread out.
Also everyone I've needed to pass has kindly stood aside so that we could keep some distance.

I still think that it's only a minority that make it into various forms of media that are not.

"running round your living room with your pants on your head screaming in panic only hurts you."

Wow, you can tell it's Monday - patronising getting an extra boost this morning.

Someone should tell the scientists that wrote a letter to the government about this that they are all curtains twitching depressives with their pants on their head. It's the only explanation for disagreeing with Johnson.

There's is far too much 'one size fits all' in the decision making and rules by the Government. I'd like to see more stats published for individual areas rather than just Local Authority areas or hospital figures that we are seeing now and then no go zones enforced if there is a hotspot. At the moment I get figures for a huge geographical area and a County hospital which bear no relation to what's going on in the area I live in or the area in which I shop. We are lucky to have vast swathes of open countryside into which we can walk/ride/drive and not see anyone else. My SIL lives in a similar area although a different county. She is on the vulnerable list and quite frankly her mental health has not been helped by the stay at home 'order'. She could easily have ventured out into the countryside as she would in normal times and walked the dog whilst meeting no one.

The R rate according to Whitty is between 0.7 and 0.9 no mention of 0.5 or below.

The 8000 daily infection figure is not coming down and that number does not include hospitals or care homes, so why isn't it falling like a stone?

Daily deaths are plateauing, Harries says this needs to be monitored for a few more days to get the real picture.

It would be particularly tragic if after 10 weeks hospital admissions etc were not falling fast?

But good luck with your head in the sand/condescending attitude.

Although when you start to post it on line, others may be influenced. It’s one thing to be deeply concerned, terrified even, but take responsibility and read up on the facts to try to help yourself out of it.

Government advisors are expressing concern about 8000 cases a day and R being close to 1, not randoms on the internet.

As far as I know they aren't running around their living room.

Science community starting to release data and opinion based on that data that the virus seems to running out of steam and could in theory burn itself out.

Life is never risk free and any death is sad but only 3 deaths of under 16s and around 450 deaths in total in the 18-50 group. The risk of most people getting it is very very low and even then you are unlikely to get very ill.

How many will die in the next few years due to suicide/mental health, cancer, heart disease as screening programmes have been paused.

Things need to be put into perspective. I don't think any country, even the USA, has seen a second wave. This seems to be how the virus operates.

The R rate according to Whitty is between 0.7 and 0.9 no mention of 0.5 or below

Yes and like the pp said that covers all settings. Transmission is much higher in care homes and hospitals, and much lower in the community. The former two drag the rate up.

Perhaps read before having a go!

Merrymouse the 8,000 is potential due to asymptomatic spreaders. Not actuals. Other countries have asymptomatic spreaders which are also not reported. Those countries will have those people too.

I don't think that's fair to say anyone has their head in the sand .
Just because you want to remain positive and that we are over the worst .
For 10 weeks no work , no school only going to supermarket social distancing and daily exercise.
I saw my mum for the first time yesterday and my in-laws , it did the world of good .
My dc is struggling mentally and has stopped her uni work .
To me you can choose to be negative or whatever and stay home / not see anyone for longer but for some of us it's making us ill and not from Covid if we can try and move on see family but socially distance .
I wont be going back to work for a while and I'm not going to any non essential shops because I can't be arsed with the queuing. I wouldn't judge anyone for doing those things either and I would be careful.
That's not sticking your head in the sand that's someone who thinks there is no risk and nobody has said that .

Personally, i think bluntness was the one "having go"

No one anywhere has mentioned this R rate being below 0.5 in the general community and if it was, the community acquired 8000 new daily infections would be falling but it is not.