As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

[Youneverknowwhatyourgonnaget]

I would expect the numbers to rise again but now we are more prepared we shouldn’t need to lockdown again.we have built hospitas that are empty we should by now have plenty of PPE and extra ventilators. We need to get back to normal for good with keeping to social distancing washing our hands loads and protecting the most vulnerable!

[LivinLaVidaLoki]

@TheSheepofWallSt percentages arent increasing. If you look at number of positive tests/tests carried out it actually looks something like this.

[TheSheepofWallSt]

I’m actually not sure that we should stay in lockdown - I suspect we’ll have to learn to live with Covid for a time, as people did with Polio (which was oddly similar insofar as many people infected, most asymptomatic or easily recovered- a much smaller percentage very badly affected, particularly in the long term, or died).

Lifting lockdown to save the economy is one thing. Matt Hancock telling shielding people it was SAFE to go out now, as he did this morning, is another.

[dreamingbohemian]

I wouldn't say things are back to normal in Germany, not all the kids are back in school and those that are it's only for a few hours a week. Masks are mandatory in shops and public transport. Restaurants can open for a few hours in the evening with strict guidelines. Social distancing is still in effect although tbh it's being ignored a lot now.

In other words, there is still a big concern about a second wave here, even though we have never been as badly affected as the UK. Far too soon to tell what will happen.

[CountessFrog]

Because people who have followed the rules like to judge others who haven’t done exactly the same. And they hope for a second wave to ‘teach them a lesson.’

[Gwenhwyfar]

Wasn't there a second wave in China?

[Flaxmeadow]

It's way too early to tell.
Spain, France, Italy and the UK are only just beginning to lift restrictions.

Non essential shops won't open in the England/UK? for another 2 weeks. Later than some of the other countries

[Gwenhwyfar]

"4) hundreds of thousands of people had been displaced by the war and were migrating back to their home countries, taking coronavirus with them"

Yes, but if you exclude war, we travel around a lot more now than in 1918 don't we.

[PicsInRed]

This may have been the 2nd wave.

French scientists have now identified probable covid in patient scans from mid November. This would indicate infection in the weeks prior to that. They're now working on scans from October to see if it was in France in October.

uk.news.yahoo.com/french-patients-were-sick-covid-091009709.html

[Drivingdownthe101]

Well... not now lots of borders are shut, no. After the war it was completely uncontrolled mass migration, all within a very very short period of time. Anyway that’s just part of the picture that makes the Spanish flu pandemic a completely different beast to this one.

[Crackerofdoom]

Lockdown has lifted in Austria but things are far from normal. Class sizes here are legally limited to 25 to start with and we are doing alternate days so only half the kids are in at a time.

Rules on face masks to be relaxed next week but this is being done on a regional basis since the majority of our cases are in Vienna.

But everyone here is expecting restrictions to tighten and relax over the coming months as borders reopen and people start moving around more.

I don't think anyone here is thinking that this is over

[EasterIssland]

@80sMum That’s not the case anymore in Spain. They’re allowed to go out and drive their cars. They can’t leave their area but they can go to the pub or get the hair cut or also meet with 10 people. Most of my friends have had indoors get together a and parties already.
Also where I’m from (Basque Country ) some schools are opened and we’re having a general election in July.

Some beaches have been full as well in the last few weeks
Most of those that can wfh are not allowed anymore and are asked to go back to their work
Imo lockdown was more tough in Spain however their Exit plan is more relaxed than here.

[BirdieFriendReturns]

I agree that this is nothing like the Spanish flu. They had no antiviral treatments or antibiotics for bacterial infections that the flu caused either.

It was a very different world then with no NHS and a malnourished, poverty stricken UK.

[BelleSausage]

Because the UK government doesn’t like to tell citizens things they don’t want to hear and won’t enforce mask usage.

Every country that has come out of full lockdown went into lockdown earlier, had full scale track and trace up and running before they came out of lockdown, had lower infection rates when they came out of lockdown and had actually locked down fully. Now those countries can use their track and trace systems to respond sensitively time new outbreaks on a smaller scale. And they are making everyone wear masks in enclosed spaces.

The U.K. has done none of those things, which is why we still have the third highest mortality rate per head of population.

We are idiots who believe we’re too safe and too good to do things properly.

[EasterIssland]

Also because of the tough lockdown Spain is going to be hit by a big recession. This week Nissan announces they’re closing their whole factory 25k people are going to be made redundant between direct and indirect work related with Nissan. Spain already has a big unemployment from 2008 and this will affect them even worse so I guess that’s why their Exit plan is also trying to mix Corona vs economy

[Cornettoninja]

@whenthejoyreturns I think your timescale expectations may be off here. This virus was identified in January, it’s not even six months in existence as far as we’re concerned - pandemics last years (I believe the average is two).

That’s not to say we will live through the next two years at the level of crisis we’ve been at but it does mean that things will change, and likely change again, we just don’t know enough.

All the evidence of history tells us that we will experience waves, it’s great if they never happen, but it would be foolish to ignore the most likely course based on what we know.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[Whoopsmahoot]

Korea was due to an outbreak at a gay club - no one wanted to confess they had been there, so track and trace inefficient Then another outbreak in a works canteen - social distancing at the work end but lax in the canteen. Then spread via non symptomatic carriers. They found virus on the floor, the chairs and handrails. That’s why track and trace will never be fully effective. People lie.

[HannahStern]

"There won't be a second wave" is reliably brought to you by the very same people who poo-pooed the idea of a first wave.

[user1471510720]

OP. The virus was Politicised almost from the beginning. It is clear to any rational person with sound intelligence that certain organisations and media want to harm the country and hurt the standing of the current Government. Let them sprout their crap. The first wave was about as deadly as a bee sting in real terms and the second wave if at all will be the same. Of course many will argue the opposite but facts soon destroy their arguments. The worse thing in reality is the Government Now has to pretend the lockdown was essential and carry on with the slow easing if it.

[SeaToSki]

China and S Korea are currently battling new infections. China is aiming to test every single resident of Wuhan after they had 8 new cases after none for 35 days. S Korea is contemplating new lock downs after a single man infects 119 others in a single night out clubbing and such. If you assume similar will happen in Europe then we will have a second wave if we cant shut down each new infection in days by tracing and quarantining all their contacts whether symptomatic or not

[ShanghaiDiva]

There has not been a second wave in China. Some areas have reported a number of cases, but action is taken quite swiftly to ensure theses are contained: tracing and testing.
My dd’s School closed on 23rd January and it was not until last week that all grades went back. There are still restrictions in place which are more severe than in the uk, despite no new cases in my province, eg if a student leaves the city they cannot return to school for 7 days. China’s borders are still closed, but they are starting to fast track some foreigners back.

[TerrapinStation]

@TheSheepofWallSt

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888254/COVID19_Epidemiological_Summary_w22_Final.pdf

Page 17 is easiest to see at a glance

Thank you, I can't open that on my tablet but will do when I can, the graphs on today's briefing aren't going up and I would like to understand if those are inaccurate

[HesterShaw1]

It happened in 1918

It's of far more relevance to look at what is happening in other countries in 2020 than it is to look at a different virus 102 years ago surely?

[MillicentMartha]

@LivinLaVidaLoki That graph doesn’t show much. Earlier on the only people being tested were those ill enough to be admitted to hospital so you’d expect a high proportion. The testing has been extended out massively since then to people who don’t even have symptoms in many cases. So the proportion positive will obviously be much less.

[Echobelly]

You know what, I hope all the 'there'll be a second wave'-rs are wrong, but I fear they may be right. It's too early to tell from those other countries, which only came out a fortnight ago what the outcome will be, I think it'll be at least another fortnight before we can tell.

I do think some people are acting as those every change is an equal risk, but all the evidence seems to be pretty clear that it is hard to catch outdoors with social distancing, which the vast majority of people are practising correctly, even in places which people are shrieking about being 'too busy' - yes, they are busy, but in most of the pics I've seen almost everyone seems to be keeping to their household and keeping 2m apart from everyone else.

I honestly don't know how much the safety holds for quite large groups outside though, but it's certainly not the same risk as, say, letting everyone just get on the tube or reopening night clubs etc. (NB, and for people saying the London Underground is packed now - my brother's had to use it for his job the last 4 weeks and says it is practically empty, at least on the Northern Line)