As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

[EveryoneLoves09876]

@TrustTheGeneGenie 😂 and the truth! Is that really not enough?! Wow.

[Devlesko]

Did you see the pics of London today, the protest?
Have you seen the beaches?
Have the kids gone back yet?

I think Boris said planned for second wave during summer hols.
The "aim" is for 54k to die, Boris said at the start, but I think that was a conservative guess and we're up to 36k now.

[Hopeisnotastrategy]

In Spain we are very worried about a second wave, given

a) antisocial people not distancing in bars in cities as soon as they were open
b) what happens when they finally let the idiots in Madrid out of their pens ( they’ve already have one good try at spreading it round the country pre lockdown when they all fled to the coast and then made a real point of making their presence felt)
c) the fact most new cases in Spain are now arising from illegal parties according to official figures

and

d) seeing what happens once international tourism starts in July. Benidorm, anyone?

It is a real danger. I see what’s currently going on the the UK and I despair. Why throw away all the real sacrifices people have made because you selfishly can’t control yourself for a short while longer?

[SaskiaRembrandt]

@TrustTheGeneGenie

Because we have the highest death rate in the world

That's a new one.

No, we don't have the highest death rate in the world, we have the second highest.

www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

[iwantmysay]

There will be no 2nd wave , this virus has been around since December. Do people think it took from December till March to get in this country no . The 2nd wave was probably March /April and it was no where near as bad as the government predicted

There is no excess deaths data to back theory this up, however, that could be the demographic of the people who caught it first ie younger, white M/c and healthy!
Until we get a widely available antibody test we won't know, however, it would be very odd that a global travel hub country like UK should get it weeks after the rest of europe.

60k excess deaths to date, so not too bad then!!! :(

[TheLashKingOfScotland]

We have friends in Italy. They're still working from home and the DCs aren't going back to school until at least Sept. Our friends in Germany are working from home and their DCs are still at home too. Schools and kindergartens haven't reopened. Anyone who has to go into an office has to wear a mask and no-one is allowed to share offices.
I have no idea OP why you think other countries are 'getting back to normal'.
Plus as PPs have said, our daily death rate is many times bigger than those countries. We haven't met any of the criteria that the government set for easing restrictions. The government are just trying to distract from the complete shitshow of lack of testing; Cummings breaking lockdown; Boris presiding over one of the worst international responses to the pandemic and their decision to utilise private companies for track and trace.
They want to be able to blame 'the public' for the catastrophic numbers and sadly there seem to be idiots willing to oblige.

[imsooverthisdrama]

@iwantmysay it is not 60k deaths in the uk

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[iwantmysay]

sunday Telegraph was reporting that the UK had capacity for tracking 5 new cases per day in mid March!

So much for Hancock telling us we are one the very best prepared countries for a pandemic in January!

I'd like to see these people go to prison for what they've done but i expect they'll get Knighthoods instead.

[iwantmysay]

@imsooverthisdrama ONS excess deaths is over 60k, the 38k is those that have had a positive CV test result and we weren't testing routinely until a month or so ago.
Even in care homes the difference between CV deaths and other deaths is 18k above historic norms and this years flu season was very mild.

[TerrapinStation]

@Staysafer

This was posted yesterday.

This shows why coming out of lockdown is far safer in those countries than in the UK:

Deaths yesterday across Europe:

Spain 2
Italy 87
Germany 24
France 52
Turkey 28
Belgium 42
Sweden 84
Portugal 14
Ireland 6
Poland 13
Romania 13
Hungary 8
Netherlands 28

UK 324

Do we know that those figures are all on the same basis?

You know that 324 deaths didn't occur yesterday? The reported date and the date of death aren't the same and can have lags of several weeks. It's way to soon to know how many people died yesterday. For countries with fewer deaths it may well be feasible for the actual and reported dates to be the same but that's not the case for UK deaths

[PhilCornwall1]

Because they are doom merchants OP and want to see the country locked down forever and totally screwed.

[imsooverthisdrama]

What @iwantmysay ? I'm sorry but show me these statistics. Like I've shown you the gov website as it's all I can go on.
we have to try and manage thisI've said thus since the beginning if your worried stay home .
I'm not worried anymore I've followed the rules all along I'm sure I've had the virus this year .
If the government had said in January to stay home we would have saved more lives .
If China had the virus in November it wouldn't take till February/March to get in this country it would take days / weeks at a most .

[attackedbycritters]

The difference between 2 deaths and around 300 is nothing to do with reporting differences. Talk about grasping at straws

[RedToothBrush]

Re Germany : they have had a couple of areas which have reached a level where the cases per 100,000 has triggered a localised reimposing of some restrictions.

The level of cases per 100,000 which triggers this is considerably lower than when the UK decided to reopen.

Make of that what you will.

Re: South Korea. They seemed to have everything under control and had to reimpose restrictions in some areas because there was an increase in cases.

This is similar to Singapore which has the best track and trace and testing set up in the world.

Again both Singapore and South Korea had much lower levels per 100,000 population than the UK has.

So the idea of a second wave not happening elsewhere, therefore we won't get one is fundamentally flawed and based on the fallacy that there hasn't been a rise in cases after the initial peak in any area. There has, but its not been allowed to reach that peak before restrictions have been imposed.

All these comparisons also fail to take into account our much higher levels of the disease still remaining in the population and how this makes it much harder for a fully functioning track and trace system to keep on top of all these cases, and the fact that unlike other countries our track and trace won't be fully functioning til at least the end of June anyway!

People also seem to be under the impression that all the Nightingale hospitals have now closed. Most have but the Manchester one is still operational. We also have several areas of the country which still haven't past a peak. I am aware that there is concern about Bury for example because they have simply flatlined there.

What is different between the UK and other European countries us that other countries managed to better contain the outbreak into an epicenter. This isn't true of the UK. Whilst London was the initial hotspot it wasn't contained there and spread throughout the country to a much greater degree. Again this makes it harder going forward.

And that's without talking about the politics involved here.

[RedToothBrush]

We may not have a second wave in the UK, but all these factors make us more likely than elsewhere to have one.

[SchadenfreudePersonified]

No, we don't have the highest death rate in the world, we have the second highest.

I suspect Cummings and Johnson have accepted the challenge.

[iwantmysay]

@imsooverthisdrama

www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Sure CV may have been in the UK from December but the excess deaths doesn't support its wider spread.

[Drivingdownthe101]

The level of cases per 100,000 which triggers this is considerably lower than when the UK decided to reopen

But the Uk hasn’t reopened! Restaurants/bars/cafes/theatres/most non essential shops/many workplaces are still shut. We can’t go in the houses of our friends and family. School is still closed to the majority of pupils. How can you say the UK has ‘reopened’?

[EasterIssland]

@Staysafer this is in Spanish where I’m from
In Spain 5 deaths
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.diariovasco.com/sociedad/salud/euskadi-suma-cinco-20200531125417-nt_amp.html

Yet only Spain reported 2

[imsooverthisdrama]

Hmmm from the ft @@iwantmysay

[MorganKitten]

There’s been a second wave in South Korea

[iwantmysay]

@imsooverthisdrama so an internationally respected newspaper isn't good enough for you ?
They quote the ONS directly, who do not dispute the figures (they did supply them) only Turkey has complained as they say they have been misrepresented.

Or does the message not suit your POV ?

[EnthusiasmIsDisturbed]

There will be constant changes to restrictions as other countries are doing when they have seen an increase to stop a second wave

We might get small areas where there is a second wave but for some time restrictions won’t be back and forth to prevent a second wave being anything like the first

[iwantmysay]

Any localised 2nd wave cannot be kept local because UK has no means to prevent it spreading.
We can't even use an app developed in Europe with Apple and Google, such is our Govt's hatred of all things European.

[AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii]

A poster on another thread said that Dutch schools around her who had started back part time are back full time from next week, as there have been no ill effects