As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

I'm not saying there will be a second wave - or even that one is very likely - but I do think we need to admit our country has handled this badly overall and it's illogical to just think 'ah but Spain and Italy are all doing ok now'.

No one is going to really know who badly/good any country has done in comparison to another as we are not out of it yet and no one has properly analysed all numbers. For instance Spain and Italy haven't been including care home deaths and there are leaks from within the UK that covid is being applied liberally to avoid autopsy etc.

No one is going to know, it was only a couple of weeks ago that behavioral science didn't even believe in lockdown fatigue apparently (although the papers pushing that might have played on hindsight and generally anti current party)

@sussexman the second wave being worse might have been the spikes on the graphs on worldometer, the page you linked - Japan's measures at containment had been successful, they relaxed, there was then a significant number of cases within a few weeks. I am not certain - I am aware that they were reporting that their ICUs were not coping at one stage, during the unexpected "second wave" - ie this is is how they described it.

@user1471510720

OP. The virus was Politicised almost from the beginning. It is clear to any rational person with sound intelligence that certain organisations and media want to harm the country and hurt the standing of the current Government. Let them sprout their crap. The first wave was about as deadly as a bee sting in real terms and the second wave if at all will be the same. Of course many will argue the opposite but facts soon destroy their arguments. The worse thing in reality is the Government Now has to pretend the lockdown was essential and carry on with the slow easing if it.

Agreed.

@SchadenfreudePersonified what are you using to track this please?

Because we have the highest death rate in the world and a bunch of corrupt cockwombles in charge.

Because we have the highest death rate in the world

That's a new one.

My cousin lives in Brisbane. Their schools have opened and are being closed daily as cases spring up.

I think people who are using easing as an excuse to go over the top and bend the restrictions are stupid. Cases will spring up if we are not careful. This morning on my walk at 5.30am I passed three camper vans parked on the seafront with men sitting in a group of about 8 outside drinking coffee and eating something. They had clearly slept there.

I also think all the protests here and in America are linked to the lockdown and not simply a reflection of feeling about that poor man's death at the hands of the police. Many people have been fed up and it is a release of pressure and an indirect form of rebellion and protest against the State and the government about how they feel they have been treated.

No one is going to really know who badly/good any country has done in comparison to another as we are not out of it yet and no one has properly analysed all numbers. For instance Spain and Italy haven't been including care home deaths and there are leaks from within the UK that covid is being applied liberally to avoid autopsy etc

That's not correct, they do include care home deaths and have done for some time.
But if you look at the excess deaths data, the UK is certainly one of the very worst performing countries in the world.

We have 8000 daily infections, thats around 80 extra deaths per day, no country has eased restrictions with daily infections at this level.

But with good weather, people still on furlough and an NHS able to deal with many more extra CV cases (if little else) it maybe we will avoid the worst until this coming winter.

@BatShite

The ONS estimate there are around 9,000 new daily infections outside care homes and hospitals.... No massive in context of overall population, but not insignificant either.

UK has made sure that the herd immunity theory will work now.

Any further outbreaks will be OUR fault, nothing to do with Johnson or Cummings, we will be blamed. For sure.

Anyway, hopefully the virus will burn out before Winter Flu season etc.

This was posted yesterday.

This shows why coming out of lockdown is far safer in those countries than in the UK:

Deaths yesterday across Europe:

Spain 2
Italy 87
Germany 24
France 52
Turkey 28
Belgium 42
Sweden 84
Portugal 14
Ireland 6
Poland 13
Romania 13
Hungary 8
Netherlands 28

UK 324

I was under the impression that if there's a second wave, it won't happen for a while, so even if it hasn't happened anywhere else yet, that's not proof that it won't happen somewhere, at some point in the future.

I'd rather err on the side of caution by avoiding unnecessary contact with other people for the time being.

There will be no 2nd wave , this virus has been around since December. Do people think it took from December till March to get in this country no . The 2nd wave was probably March /April and it was no where near as bad as the government predicted. That's why the lockdown is relaxed and if you think we are at risk stay home .
I personally have had enough if I get it I get it I'm done with lockdown after 10 weeks.

Positive cases are not really that significant except for contact tracing as you can test positive but not have symptoms. But you wont be admitted to hospital if you have a mild infection. So here are the last 2 weeks admission figures for England

18/5 678
19/5 639
20/5 637
21/5 697
22/5 713
23/5 675
24/5 685
25/5 595
26/5 471
27/5 472
28/5 475
29/5 552
30/5 562
31/5 545

Notice how they dropped considerably - and how the last 3 days have gone back up. Looks like a second wave starting to me but I expect more mild infections and fewer deaths this time round. There is an argument for getting the virus now but I think I'll wait a bit and see if more treatments turn up. More is known about the virus now, treatment is better and we cant all hide away forever. However that doesnt mean lying to people that there is no risk, there wont be a second wave.

Young people are at less risk from the virus than from tombstoning or other moronic decisions. If they want to take the risk let them.

Weezy

BBC website.

It occasionally updates deaths in each area too - much higher than govt sites suggest.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

I don't understand this whole "coming out of lockdown too soon" shite

We are still very much in it. A minority of kids are going back to school into "bubbles"

Non essential shops will open in 2 weeks with social distancing

That's not "out of lockdown" or back to normal is it?

If that alone is going to cause a second wave I'd be incredibly surprised.

That alone maybe not (and thanks for pointing out we're not "back to normal", I feel like I've just landed in a parallel universe when people claim we are!)

However, the increasing number of people who have interpreted this mild relaxation of lockdown as "it's all over now, so let's give up on social distancing entirely!" might very well trigger that dreaded second wave.

Just a few words from Italy.We have been confined to home since 9th March.Allowed to nearest supermarket one time a week.One time I even had to show document to police and fill in a form so they could check if I shopped more than once a week.Masks and gloves on when you go out.Was stopped by police too when near home having a walk even when I live in an isolated area.Doesn't seem to me that the UK is taking such measures.My dad tells me in his local big supermarket (in the UK) non one respects distance once inside the supermarket and no one wears a mask either staff or customers.With people being so careless of course a second wave could be possible

@Staysafer as I’ve said before take the Spanish numbers carefully. I’m from the Basque Country. 5 deaths yesterday. Yet whole Spain only reports 2? I’ve read Catalonia reporter 19

Seems like they’re hiding some numbers

@LuluJakey1

No, the protests in the US over the killing of George Floyd have nothing to do with lockdown.

The people protesting the racist killing of a black man in the US are very, very different to the sorts of people who protested lockdown.

The people protesting the death of George Floyd are mainly black and/or Democrats; those protesting lockdown were entirely white Trump supporters and funded by the far right.

They couldn't have been more different.

It's quite disingenuous to pretend the massive protests currently taking place in the US are by people objecting to lockdown.

@EasterIssland

Do you have a source for the Spanish figures, please?

Er because it's too early.. explain how it wouldnt happen? Where has the virus gone? Is there a vaccinne or herd immunity yet? Let's see who's name changed and disappeared from this thread in a few month's time. 🤦‍♀️

However, the increasing number of people who have interpreted this mild relaxation of lockdown as "it's all over now, so let's give up on social distancing entirely!" might very well trigger that dreaded second wave.

I think this is at least partially due to the Cummingsdebacle - people think that if he can beetle about the country within repercussions then it can't be as bad as we think.

Whereas it's just because Johnson's a twerp.

The infection is still here so there will be continued new infections but we finally will have a test track and trace system to theoretically shut it down. Has it started yet and do I have faith in it - I'm holding my breath and keeping my fingers crossed. That's the point of easing restrictions gradually and monitoring the effects of each stage. i dont think anyone who is being cautious is enjoying this doom and I for one can't wait til my husband can go back to work and the kids return to school. As much as I want this I can see that it needs to be done slowly.

South Korea has just closed its schools again after another spike, it's quite a likely thing to happen

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015

One of my friends is an Italian living in Milan. They are nowhere near back to normal.