As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

Have/are any other countries with cases/deaths comparable to the U.K. relaxing restrictions in a similar way to us?

Schools back-some years, no masks
Shops open-some, not all
Vulnerable people ok to go out

Vulnerable people are ok to go out in Spain, MIL met her 92 year old friend with multiple health conditions including type 1 diabetes for coffee at a cafe on the sea front the other day.

What I meant was, have any other countries (with similar stats to us) decided to relax lots of restrictions all on the same day?

Vulnerable people can go out in Spain now, but their schools haven’t reopened, have they?

Yes need to look at it proportionally, how much in the big scheme of things is the outside relaxations/ flouting of distancings rules compared to all the indoor activities that are still banned.
It may result in bumps but I wouldn't think another peak, the terminology of peaks and waves also seems confusing, a new wave I take as something totally seperate in the Autumn/ winter and not related to any small rises now.

If we do follow the 1918 pattern the 2nd wave was considerably worse than the first and a big worry if it happenned again.

The current situation looks like it is petering out/ stabelizing at lower numbers and unlikely to shoot back up in the summer months.

Well, mainly because this government has cocked everything else up , so I fully expect them to cock up easing out of lockdown. Not that they care, we're just cattle to them.

What I meant was, have any other countries (with similar stats to us) decided to relax lots of restrictions all on the same day?

Different countries have relaxed different restrictions, so a straight comparison is difficult. However in Spain for example schools aren’t back at full capacity but they have considerably looser restrictions on social gatherings (groups of up to 10, indoors and outdoors), visiting family in their homes (permitted) and they have also opened restaurants and cafes.

I have family in Spain. Even their relaxation of lockdown is more controlled than ours. Senior citizens allowed out in the morning, children in the afternoon. They have less infection than us now and are being super- careful.

@Appuskidu I’m from the north of Spain. 20% of the school opened on Monday

@Porcupineinwaiting The going out hours in Spain is not anymore applicable in most of Spain.
Also it was ridiculous once the pubs opened. A child could only go out to exercise for an hour yet if he wanted to go to the pub they could be out as much as they wanted.

Don't worry everyone. Boris knows what he is doing..................

@Noextremes2017

Don't worry everyone. Boris knows what he is doing..................

Indeed, Saint Boris knows best. As does St Dominic, the patron saint of judgement and common sense.

I don't know if any of you saw the Japanese schools on the tv the other week they were so impressive with their measures with hand washing stands on arrival at the school which all children went past and had to use as well as really good masks they all wore. It looked the height of efficient and organised. I wish we were that skilled over here. No doubt it all boils down to a lack of funds though.

@HesterShaw1

It happened in 1918

It's of far more relevance to look at what is happening in other countries in 2020 than it is to look at a different virus 102 years ago surely?

No, pandemics tend to follow a similar path, and going back to the Black Death have come in waves where infections peak, die back, and then peak again. Assuming that this virus will be different because we are more technologically advanced is naive. We still know too little about it and have no effective method of treating it. It might be that this is it and it fizzles out, but that would be unusual. Anyone who insists the worst is over is either lying or hugely mistaken because the truth is we can't say either way, but the evidence suggests there will be further waves. Most other countries have accepted this and are preparing for it.

Quick answer: countries who relaxed their restrictions did so roughly when daily cases and deaths were well below the level that triggered their lockdown.

The UK is getting out of lockdown while numbers are still significantly above the original lockdown trigger... If we had an exponential curve with these levels back then, no reason to think we won't get an exponential curve again (possibly with an even higher peak)

Why should we expect that the same conditions don't lead to the same result?
Oh, and antibody tests suggest than less than 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus. So no herd immunity to slow the spread.

I can't see why there won't be increasing infections. People are still catching it and no one knows if anyone has immunity yet even if they have had it. And we don't have a vaccine.

If the virus is harder to catch outdoors then it seems infections will do go down in the summer and up again as we get into winter, assuming there is no lockdown.

If I was being very cynical I'd say this is why uk gov are pushing to ease restrictions now. They want to put some fuel into the economy now in case things get bad again later in the year.

Bcause some have scared themselves shitless over this virus, so now it all has to be doomsday predictions tbh. Or thats how it seems.

Last I read, cases were mainly confined to carehomes and hospitals? The risk of infection outside these areas was very low? Has this changed recently? Aparrently those devloping vaccines were concerned that those testing them won't catch the virus given how things are currently..or something like that!

I do personally think that our infection rates are a bit high to be relaxing lockdown so much mind. However, if its true that its unlikely you will catch it outside of hospital/care home then of course, it changes things somewhat.

Yes, with flu. It’s a different virus. And there are many other reasons why this pandemic is different to the flu virus or 1918

I agree that this is nothing like the Spanish flu.

Agree as a virus it's not the Spanish Flu, or any other kind of flu, but there are two very important similarities. Without lockdowns

How infectious it is
How deadly it is

These two things are very similar in Spanish Flu and this virus

We have about 10x community transmission most countries in Europe have. They have often opened with a good track and trace already in place. If you look at how this virus spreads it is more like a fire going off and sparks from it, a lot of transmission ie sparks from fire will peter out but then one has potential to start big fire. This has not gone anywhere trust me it'll reignite here and we don't have the ability in UK at present to extinguish!

The 1918 flu pandemic was probably an anomaly, making lessons and predictions based on its progress hard to apply. As well as some of the reasons cited by PP, the spread of the disease was directly inverse to the 'normal' spread of a pandemic, in that those soldiers / military staff with mild cases tended to be kept on the battlefield to fight whilst the most serious cases were sent back to hospitals in the home front meaning that the virus in its most virulent form was actually the one that more people were exposed to. This is in direct opposition to the usual spread of a virus which tends to favour milder strains so that the virus can successfully reproduce without killing too many of its hosts.
HTH

We have about 10x community transmission most countries in Europe have

Is that right? Where are those figures from?

I'm finding this site very helpful
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR30qEvzq11I78qY5WyPOXUOtjUmZdzQL3d-k9gtDLrG6SMyl5EwD0lWmmU

Third graph down is cases/deaths per million - you can toggle using the pull down menus. Probably week-averaged new cases and deaths are the most informative. The UK's numbers peaked then started to come down very slowly compared to other countries. The USA seem to have plateaued (though it's worth scrolling down for the USA by state figures - some states have had very few cases, others, typically the Eastern seaboard with high population densities, are horrific). Iran looks like it's already well into its second wave. Some countries - e.g. Mexico - are just straightforwardly exponential growth (if you're looking at the graphs on a log scale, exponential growth is a straight line). Cases in France are starting to creep up.

It would be lovely to think there is no second wave likely. However pretty much everything every reputable scientist working in the field says goes against this Pollyanna-ish hope.

Also Israel has just reporte 103 cases or thereabouts in a reopened school. Shutting again. Why people think schools are somehow immune from this is beyond me!!

Interesting article in the Sunday Times today, 80% of people who got the virus contracted it indoor at big events, funerals etc with lots of people

@whenthejoyreturns

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

Because if we have a second wave like the Spanish flu, it will be in October.

We haven’t come out fully of the first one.

Iran looks like it's having a second wave to me.