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As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

385 replies

whenthejoyreturns · 31/05/2020 15:36

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

OP posts:
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Bertiemcgertie · 03/06/2020 07:29

I think this it's interesting that Neil Ferguson said in yesterday's Guardian that he thinks cases will stay steady until September. I tend to agree.

I think mostly being outside helps.

Come September though, when perhaps lockdown eased slightly further - all school years return even if only part time and socially distanced. Lots more return to work, I think the second wave will happen then. The virus will spread more easily inside.

I think we will wait a while before we see it happen - but unfortunately I expect it will come back. It hasn't been eradicated it's just not so transmissible at the moment. That will change.

Of course I hope I'm wrong. Be amazing if it just runs out of steam.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 03/06/2020 07:29

@Wannabangbang
Sending kids back to school early, that have the option to stay home is too early

If they have the option to stay home then they can. You can keep them home if you want, at the moment its parental choice.

Wannabangbang · 03/06/2020 07:32

I agree but if the deaths are still remaining at this level would i be forced to send them in September, thing is that's what im worried about. With people galavanting on the local beauty spots with little social distancing in sight in present weeks i don't see things getting too much better by September

Drivingdownthe101 · 03/06/2020 07:33

Sending kids back to school early, that have the option to stay home is too early

What do you mean? All those that have the option to stay at home still can. Attendance isn’t compulsory.

Graciebobcat · 03/06/2020 07:47

The second wave will happen in winter, when people won't know whether they've got a cold, flu, sinus infection, covid-19, pneumonia etc as all of these things are much more common then.

RedToothBrush · 03/06/2020 11:27

With people galavanting on the local beauty spots with little social distancing in sight in present weeks i don't see things getting too much better by September

Raining here. Colder weather.

I'm sure that will help to a certain extent.

Dh got caught up in a problem last night whilst out exercising. Ambulances and drunk teenagers involved. He intervened to help calm the situation before police turned up. Paramedics were getting abuse and hassle.

Who wants to go to the beach in the rain? Who wants to sit in the park getting pissed in the rain?

If they have the option to stay home then they can. You can keep them home if you want, at the moment its parental choice.

Lots of parents who want to keep their job, don't have that option.

Derbygerbil · 03/06/2020 11:45

Who wants to go to the beach in the rain? Who wants to sit in the park getting pissed in the rain?

The people who go to beaches with their mates without socially distancing aren’t going to sit at home alone.... they’ll go to each other’s houses, and in so doing increase the risk! Bad weather isn’t good for spreading disease, quite the opposite! Why do you think the flu season’s in winter?

Derbygerbil · 03/06/2020 11:47

Sorry I meant to say “bad weather isn’t good for containing infectious disease”

Derbygerbil · 03/06/2020 11:48

Raining here. Colder weather. I'm sure that will help to a certain extent.

On the contrary sadly.... People will just mix in confined indoor spaces.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 03/06/2020 13:00

@RedToothBrush
Lots of parents who want to keep their job, don't have that option

I understand that. My post was in reference to a poster who stated that if children have the option to stay at home why are they being sent to school?

If they have the option to stay at home that implies an element of choice, so like I said, they don't have to.

LittleCandle · 03/06/2020 13:10

South Korea has just started locking down again. My future son in law's sister works out there and was telling us.

Kokeshi123 · 03/06/2020 13:56

Who wants to go to the beach in the rain? Who wants to sit in the park getting pissed in the rain?

Oh God, not this again.

Beaches and parks (unless we are talking serious "event"-levels of crowding) are not where this bloody virus is spreading.

It mainly spreads indoors.

Indoor socialization = spread of virus.

HannahStern · 05/06/2020 20:52

Raining here. Colder weather. I'm sure that will help to a certain extent.

Yeah, right, in your dreams. They will flout the law and mix indoors where the virus has a 18x greater risk of spreading.

tilder · 05/06/2020 20:56

Iran

As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?
tilder · 05/06/2020 21:00

Also Iran

As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?
userxx · 05/06/2020 21:43

@HannahStern What a ray of sunlight you are 😬

HannahStern · 05/06/2020 22:19

All the better to be bright than dim.

bellinisurge · 05/06/2020 22:35

Where I live the school partial return is delayed because the R number is over 1.

HesterShaw1 · 06/06/2020 20:43

The fabled scientific R number... no one can give a straight answer as to how it's calculated or what its definite significance is. Except it is very complicated and nothing us more plebs can understand.

Drivingdownthe101 · 06/06/2020 20:53

@HesterShaw1

The fabled scientific R number... no one can give a straight answer as to how it's calculated or what its definite significance is. Except it is very complicated and nothing us more plebs can understand.
And different organisations calculate it differently, so people are free to pick the one that fits their agenda apparently!
Porcupineinwaiting · 06/06/2020 21:45

Came on to point out Iran is entering its second wave but see tilder got there before me.

nellodee · 06/06/2020 22:13

R is how many cases one person infects. It's connected to how quickly the virus doubles. However, when you're working it out, you also have to know what period of time someone is contagious for.

Imagine for a fictitious disease, it had an R of 10 (very high) but had a year long incubation period before the person was infected. Then you might have a different disease, which only has an R of 1.1, but carriers are infectious immediately and only for a single day. The second virus has a lower R, but will grow much more quickly.

With Covid, we can just about see how quickly it's growing, and we know more or less what period of time someone is contagious for. From these two things, we can work backwards to give a rough estimate of what R is. It's always going to be an estimate, because we don't know precisely when people are most contagious and we also don't know exactly how many people have it, or how quickly it's growing.

The rate of growth is just as important as the R value and more comprehendible. Back at the beginning of this pandemic, cases were doubling every 2-3 days. Currently, cases are halving every 2 months. It's a lot quicker on the way up than it is on the way down, which is why it's really, really important not to let cases rise again after you've fought tooth and nail to get them down.

tilder · 06/06/2020 22:48

Porcupineinwaiting death rate doesn't match case load. Which is obviously a good thing for those involved.

It's interesting. On the assumption that Iranian reporting of Covid is accurate.

IcedPurple · 06/06/2020 23:49

Even the Iranians admit that their stats may not be accurate.

Plus, the initial wave was in the most populated regions in the north of Iran, while this 'wave' is in specific areas elsewhere in the country. It could also be attributed to more testing, so for a number of reasons it may not be the dreaded 'wave' many suggest it to be.

Porcupineinwaiting · 07/06/2020 00:23

The Iranian government arent attributing it to more testing though are they?

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