As there’s been no second wave in any other country why are people so insistent it’s going to happen here?

[whenthejoyreturns]

Italy, Spain etc seem to be getting back to normal. Schools, work places, shops and transport systems are reopening yet there seems to be no sign of a second wave. What makes us so different in the uk that a load of people are convinced it’s inevitable here to the extent that some have even started ‘preparing’ for it?

@attackedbycritters Exactly, from what I've seen on the news, they're still going through the peak. More than 100,000 deaths so far, and they seem to have stopped trying to do anything to slow the pandemic down.

"Hospital admissions are dropping like a stone. Even with the new cases. What does this tell you? We now don’t only test hospital admissions, we do community testing, coupled with the drop in hospital admissions and icu beds being taken, what does this tell you?"

Tells me you cant read a slide or are deliberately lying. Hospital admissions did drop but the last few days they have at best leveled off and possibly gone up.

You are determined to minimise the risks and insult everyone who questions your judgement - that is not being cheerful, it's just being a GF.

Lol ok, they have “dropped” like a stone and have now levelled off,

Doesn’t change it though, does it? 😄

Iran are heading into a second wave apparently.
Look on Worldometer at UK rate of infections. Its staying pretty constant and will probably start to go up soon.

Iran heading for second peak.... look at the graphs here:
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

They've shut schools again in S Korea due to a rise in cases.

Well because we have eased far more things far more quickly at a stage where infections and deaths are way higher than other countries were when they very gently eased their strict lockdowns to the point of our so called lockdown

Oh and because we’ve failed to get a decent trace and trace system going

You need to look at some proper statistics, worldometer doesn't tell you anything. The rate of pillar 1 positive cases (based on clinical need ie those with symptoms) appears to have dropped quite dramatically since testing became available to nearly everyone on 18 May. The majority of positive tests since then have come from routine testing of care and NHS workers and residents of care homes ie they are asymptomatic cases. The number of positive tests is staying relatively static or declining, but the testing criteria has widened massively, so there's obviously a decrease in infections.

There was an uptick in the R value in many local authorities in mid May peaking around the 19th / 20th. In many cases it tipped it over R1.

It has now come down again but I don't think I've seen this commented on.

Given this information, I am expecting to see it uptick again in around a week to ten days time.

We need to treat the statistics with caution, though. I finally had a test 2 weeks ago 3 months after my symptoms started, mainly to reassure the headteacher at our DDs' school. There really was no way that I would have tested positive at that stage! Whereas the GPs I had telephone appointments with diagnosed my symptoms as having been caused by COVID-19.

It's impossible to know what the infection rate has been, unless the antibody test becomes widely available, as we keep being told it will be soon. Even then we can't be sure how accurate it will be.

What financial help did Spain/Italy/France offer it's citizens. ' I'm wondering if the fact UK are paying 80% to furloughed staff that it's much more than the other countries are paying out - maybe that's the reason UK wants to release lockdown quicker?

BBCONEANDTWO I don’t know the ins and outs but my BIL in Spain got 80%. He’s been back at work for 4 weeks now though (non key worker).

Just would love for this to be true ....

Coronavirus 'no longer clinically exists in Italy', top doctor says

From sky news

Furloughed staff in Italy the same. 80% and it's still ongoing for the few not yet able to go back.
The self-employed have received a monthly sum which after the first month has gone on to a rolling monthly payment. They haven't yet announced when that will end.
Also various national, regional and local financial help for those in need.

Second waves can happen months later not immediately after. We are all still in the first wave!
Expect it around flu season.

If it’s around flu season, Boris can give himself a clap on the back. At least one thing happened without delays.

Second waves can happen months later not immediately after. We are all still in the first wave!

Yes, any spike now would still be part of the first wave, a second peak you could say. I heard an interview with Michael Osterholm, infectious diseases specialist from the university of Minnesota, who suggested we may have a second wave about six months after the first if this virus follows the pattern of influenza pandemic. So I guess that would be Sept/oct time for us, nicely timed with return to schools!

I work for a hospital trust,west midlands and our Covid cases have reduced a lot.Deaths in the hospital have also reduced with many days with 0.
Friends in other hospitals say the same.
We are not holding our breath,we know there will be a second wave and are just treating as many people as possible with other illnesses as long ,fast and safely as we can.

Thank you Hagisonthehill for your input. Reassuring. Keep up the very good work and thank you for your ongoing contribution to society.

@iwantmysay
The R rate according to Whitty is between 0.7 and 0.9 no mention of 0.5 or below

Minutes of the Sage meeting on May 5 said: 'The overall epidemic can be considered as three separate but interacting epidemics: In the community; in hospitals and in care homes.

'The overall reproduction number, R, is in the range 0.5 to 0.9. ,If health and social care settings are excluded it is likely to be at the lower end of this range

@Bluntness100 suggested it is around 0.5.

Given the information from SAGE she could be right that it's about 0.5 in the community.

It’s 0.2 around here

It’s 0.2 around here

Where’s that? And what’s your source?

0.2 Leckford? At the risk of being rude, have you mistaken the case prevalence as a percent of your local population for the r value? It's just I've never seen anyone mention 0.2.

I have no faith in the government now. Sending kids back to school early, that have the option to stay home is too early in the fight against this virus. I think that's what will cause a second wave, theres already a school that's had to close due to 7 people including staff testing positive for coronavirus! I know the lockdown can't go on forever but if the government just hung on for a bit and kept the lockdown for a little longer maybe I'd have more faith in the situation taking a turn for the better. We are still getting 300+deaths a day, much more than other european countries. This doesn't bode well, still so many deaths and we are being encouraged to send our kids into school. Basically so the blame is on us should we catch it from our children and die. Then theres the care home situation where it has been allowed to circulate freely, i despair i really do!