Tracking and tracing (certain individuals) (5)

[SouthWestmom]

Here it is - we are still slightly outraged

@SecretSpAD

If the R is between 0.7 and 0.9, then allowing people to meet in gardens etc, is not based on scientific evidence

I'm very far from convinced that SAGE or Chris Whitty has ok'd this approach. But basically the R rate needs to stay below 1 for the epidemic to be contained, but it is also dependent on the prevalence of the infection - that is how much is out there. So in areas where the prevalence is low, eg where I am in the SW, an R number of 0.7 (which I think it is here) is fine. In the North East where the prevalence is higher then there's automatically more opportunities for the virus to spread because there are more people with the virus in the community. Does that make sense?

Thank you SecretSpAD

That does make sense. And I share your thoughts that SAGE and co have ok'd these plans

Well now. I got a YouGov survey in my inbox. I've been doing them for about a year now, but haven't had one in a while.

In depth questions on how I think the Government is doing re COVID, Test and Trace, Economy, accuracy of information, blah blah .

Plus, an open question for my own comment as to what I think about the Government's handling of things. I've never had an open question that I recall in these surveys.

Then a bit later on, towards the end, the following question.

Some people have been calling for Dominic Cummings to resign over his recent trip to Durham during lockdown. Do you think…?

1.Regardless of whether he should or should not have resigned, it is time to move on from the issue
2. It is still important and people should continue to try and hold him to account over this issue
3.Don’t know

So YouGov haven't quite decided to "move on", yet.

I felt it very clear they didn't. Not by words because I think those 2 gentleman know real integrity. Their body language though showed tenseness. Their voices were calm and clear and were very honest. Used data to show why we still need to be extremely cautious. It felt so different what the 2 parties were saying too.

Boris "I'm so confident we can get there ....."
Whitty and Valance "we can move forward, we need to remember, we have to be aware of, we need to be careful not to ....."

It's interesting for me to watch because I've had a new boss within the last year. Old one was very much a blustering Boris type. Even when he told us what we wanted to hear we didn't know if he was sincere or not. We use to dread when he called a meeting about what was going to happen.

Current one is on her second crisis since starting! She's clear and concise, empathetic and honest. Even when she calls a meeting and you know you may not want to hear what she has to say - you know it'll be delivered honestly, clearly and you are invited to arrange personal meetings with her if you want to discuss the contents further.

Poor Bozo, where's a walk in fridge when you need one?

Saw this on twitter from Alastair Campbell:

So according to @bbclaurak hints on podcast Cummings is saying he will only resign if he is still front page news this Sunday. Exposes once more his venality that there is no judgement of right/wrong, or damage to country or public health messaging, just the news agenda

Let's hope it's still in the news then

mobile phone footage/photos or CCTV footage would be what would do it

I'm reserving judgement on witty and Vallance. Not sure it's possible to tell.
I objected to Witty approving a test for Goves daughter before they were freely available.

@Noeuf I'm with you. It worries me at the start that we were pursuing herd immunity, which presumably was agreed to/with by the science bods

*Nquartz
*
I followed the Oscar Pistorious threads when he was on trial and what was interesting was the love for the judge. Until she came to a conclusion.

I don't want to be persuaded by a calm manner or an assumed disagreement with Boris.

f I'm with you. It worries me at the start that we were pursuing herd immunity, which presumably was agreed to/with by the science bods

I probably need to listen again to check, but I'm pretty sure that when CW gave a Gresham Lecture last autumn he made it clear that only vaccines give herd immunity.
That was certainly the case when I was training and covering epidemiology anyway.

.

Didn’t DC and his father in law do something about euthenics? Probably why he fancies herd immunity.

I watched this evening and thought there was a stark contrast between what Boris was saying and the message that Whitty and Valance wanted to put across. I’m pretty sure Valance said at one point that the R rate was still high? I also think that people in England need to question more why the devolved nations are being more cautious than England.

Yes, I'm also reserving judgement on Whitty and Valance, particularly on the latter. Although I respect them a lot more than BJ.

Just saw on Sky News that Harry Dunn's family is suing Dominic Raab in private prosecution for letting Anne Sacoolas go back to the US. Another shambles created by this government, another cover up and such grief for his poor family.

How they managed to cause grief, anger and desperation to so many people in so many different ways over such a short period of time is truly shocking.

I also think that people in England need to question more why the devolved nations are being more cautious than England.

I'm in Wales and I fully support the Welsh Government on this issue, although I'm not a fan of either Drakeford or Gething, in fact I think both are poor and mistakes have been made. However, this was common sense, two long bank holiday weekends in two weeks was asking for trouble. Wales would have attracted far too many tourists and Cummings wannabes coming to their second homes if the restrictions had been lifted. Whereas this has been avoided and we've been pretty well behaved based on the recent photos from nature spots.

I think we'll find out tomorrow whether the same app will be used in Wales and how the tracing programme is going to work. Will be interesting.

Purple I’m in Wales too (north) and haven’t really ever paid attention to the devolved government before now, but I’ve been impressed too!

One of the big problems that faces wales in terms of track and trace is that there are so many areas that rely on tourism. I know there are areas of the whole U.K. that are in the same boat... but, for example, DP runs an outdoor activity business that provides residential trips for schools, amongst other things. So his regular school book their date, he secures instructors, accommodation etc and then three days before they’re due to arrive, a child tests positive and the whole trip is cancelled? Is DP supposed to refund? Do the schools insurance payout? I work for a small holiday home management company and we would suffer similarly.

At the same time, I am on a low income and do not have company sick pay. If I test positive and self isolate for 14 days, I get SSP which is equivalent to half my basic wage... which is tricky but doable once or twice. But if I’m contacted and have to isolate with no symptoms, what pay do I get?

It’s all such a mess and I hold Boris et al solely responsible.

Saw this on fb on Cambrigeshire Lives fb page.

A member of the public standing up for DC by rubbishing a hospital worker who said DC was selfish.

Wankspangle. Let me tell you something Mr Wright. I don't clap for you, Heroes don't moan about PPE or Money . Real heroes get the Job done without orders or regards to their own personal safety. The word " Hero " is overused!

Aloha, I know, Wales does depend on tourism a lot and sadly this pandemic and tourism don't fit together. I wish I could have the answers. Let's see what they announce tomorrow, fingers crossed the sensible approach will continue.

An interesting article in The Spectator... "Johnson isn't Fit to Lead". Wow it seems pretty significant coming from this publication in particular.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-isn-t-fit-to-lead

Question Time is on. Audience zoom thing not working too well

I really (really) want to be able to trust the delectable duo, but I do worry that they were advising the govt around the time they decided it wasn't vital to control those returning from Italy or cancel big events. Or even lockdown earlier. Have been full member of Chris Whitty fan club so I am hoping the govt just ignored their advice then and has hopefully learned not to again.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/scientists-criticise-uk-government-over-following-the-science

This has a really neat summary and bio of who is who

I think a public inquiry into the handling of this pandemic is inevitable to ensure mistakes are avoided in the future, should another one happen in our lifetime.

This is when we are going to find out what exactly Whitty and Valance were advising, when, why and whether their advice was followed. I always had the vibe that Whitty was the sensible, cautious one, whereas Valance supported Tegnell's theory of herd immunity, and then did the U-turn when the numbers became high, but then it was too late to do anything. Obviously Johnson would have gone with the latter because to him (or to his special adviser) it's never about the welfare of the people. Neither of them has any empathy or sense of duty and responsibility. The likes of Jenny Harries don't even matter, their opinions clearly change with the wind direction. DC will also be covered by this inquiry.

PurplePansy05

I hope you're right.
But I have a feeling what will happen is:
No public enquiry, mps congratulating themselves on thier handling of the pandemic.
Anyone who questions the mistakes will be told that Boris lead the country through a war and won. And how dare we question that.
2 minute silence for those who died.
And then we will be told to move on.

Yeah I feel the new stay at home message is "move on"