People are becoming far too relaxed.

[PecorinoPear]

I have been going to the supermarket once a week for food and petrol since this began.

I have noticed that people are becoming too relaxed. Whole families shopping together, no social distancing because they are incorrectly wearing a mask. Children wearing masks, if parents are so worried why don't they leave them at home?

Morrisons aren't bothering with a queue anymore, so there is no limit to how many people are in the store.

Sorry that should say 15,000 cases rather than deaths in Ireland. The total number of cases in Ireland at the end of March was 325. A little less than 15,000.

Sweden has shown that you can allow people to socialise, go to pubs and shops etc without any exponential increase in deaths

Headline from The Telegraph, 20th May 2020:
Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita over past seven days.
Sweden has 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy. Sweden's approach is not something to aspire to.

There is no evidence from anywhere in the world that relaxing measures leads to an exponential increase in deaths
Just a few hours ago S Korea (which has a brilliant track record in getting on top of the virus fast) has announced it's reimposing strict lockdown restrictions in Seoul, after the biggest spike in two months since relaxing things.

Not wanting to be the wet blanket, just looking at the facts. We do have to go about all this carefully.

The UK is competing strongly with Sweden for the highest death rate per capita. One country in lockdown, the other not.

I didn't say there wouldn't be spikes @duffledaisy, I said there wouldn't be exponential growth. The two things are very different and nowhere has shown anything close to exponential growth.

People seem intent in dragging the worst of this out for as long as possible

Keeping a tighter lockdown would shorten this thing because it'd get the numbers down to a point where it'd be a lot easier to track and trace and stop the thing moving between people, giving us a breathing space where we can safely lift the lockdown again, before a vaccine or cure or both are ready.

Tbh it's one rule I wish was encouraged the 1 person shopping. I understand that you have to take dc and some can't go alone .
The ones I've seen Shopping together are in their own little world oblivious to anyone and discussing what to have for tea etc . I just want to get in and get out as quickly as possible.

I was in the supermarket today and while it narks me that some people reach across me for food or walk behind me, there's not much I can do apart from my best - but it was nigh on impossible today. Can't avoid it unless you stay in.

@duffeldaisy totally agree. Can't believe how relaxed people are. Can't discuss it with my mum as she thinks it's all gone away now

It's very unlikely there will ever be a cure @duffledaisy - maybe effective treatment, but no cure. And there is every chance there won't be a vaccine either.

I think people are becoming more realistic about the risk tbh.

If my kids had increased vulnerability (asthma etc) I'd be admittedly far more cautious but 80% catch this mildly and a tiny proportion of the 20% end up in hospital. 33 people under the age of 31 have died.

I worry that there are going to be a lot of children who are unable to reintegrate themselves into normal life and even leave their front doors because they've been conditioned into fear and anxiety. I've seen kids in supermarkets/out and about generally and I think the ones who are being trained to pay attention to their surroundings and social distance are being prepared for the moves towards "normality"

Big groups in supermarkets are annoying because it's harder to social distance and little kids are more likely to lose awareness of their surroundings but at least those kids aren't going to be the ones scared of masks and confused when people social distance to avoid them

@monkeytennis97 That must be really hard. Sorry. Although almost all of the grandparents in our family are at risk/shielding, we're lucky that they are taking it seriously still at the moment. Most people I know are. It's only when I come on here that there seems to be a lot more of a blase attitude from some people.

I get it when people are concerned about MH or children's socialising and education, because they're really important things to weigh up. But the 'It's all been blown out of proportion' comments make me feel uneasy about what's going to happen with cases if those people are then going out and not taking precautions.
Like everyone, I'm desperate to see our family in person again, and a second wave is just going to make it unsafe and delay an end to this even more.

@Duffledaisy - a genuine question, what are you expecting to happen? Are you thinking that if everyone follows the rules to the letter then suddenly it'll be safe? Are you aware that even if we locked down totally now for months, once we opened up the virus would still be there?

Exponential growth was not happening before distancing was 'decreed.' Exponential growth (which was in relation to deaths, not infections btw) has never happened, anywhere in the world. Not a single example of it, nowhere even close to it.

Attachment 1 - what a curve of exponential growth looks like
Attachment 2 - UK cases before the effects of social distancing were seen
Attachment 3 - UK deaths before the effects of social distancing were seen

I’m glad I have carried on as normal as possible, I shop most days, social distancing, I walk my dogs twice a day, my daughter is out now with her friend, 2 meters apart, she’s very sensible and sticks to the rules. I’m glad I haven’t locked my family away. It will be easier to get back to the new normal and not terrified to go out the front door. My families MH so far has been pretty good as we have kept life as normal as we can.

I'm not sure what you're showing there @PowerslidePanda. Those graphs show the difference between zero tests and some tests - ie the difference between no cases of covid being found and some cases being found. They don't show exponential growth.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

Cases will not increase exponentially. That is absolutely for definite. Every single piece of data available on covid has shown that the imperial model, which predicted exponential growth, is completely and totally wrong - which is understandable as it was based on no data.

For exponential growth to occur you just need R to be above 1, that’s just (basic a-level) maths. “Exponential” is not synonymous with “explosive”.

People are still talking as if the shielding and vulnerable and elderly will all get it and all be either seriously and or die. It's just not true. People still don't understand risk. People are shielded because they have a higher percentage of dying than others. But it is still much more likely they will survive.

@Kcnana

Quite rightly too. For the majority of people, the chance of this virus causing severe illness is extremely low. Perceived risk is starting to fall in line with actual risk.

We can't stay living under these restrictions forever. Those who can, simply have to move forward.

Why can't people shop as they have been, it's hardly onerous. These small changes to behaviour that do. It affect people's quality of life could make a huge difference.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

The virus doesn't just hang about for very long without humans (or cats?) to infect. So the ideal would be to trace and isolate and treat every person who gets it, make sure it dies out as their immune system fights it, and it doesn't get the chance to leap to anyone else.

Other countries have successfully got the numbers down. New Zealand were fast enough to properly eradicate it, so no longer need a lockdown apart from at their borders, temporarily.
It strikes me that, with a massive campaign, well organised, to get this thing entirely under control (which of course is way harder now that so many people are infected), then it would be easier to put all resources into helping people and goods to quarantine at all the border points (not as tricky for countries surrounded by water as it is for ones attached by land), and everyone else be able to continue as normal because it was eradicated/will be stamped on fast if it reinfects anyone.

Scientists all over the world are working on vaccines. Of course it'd make trading less convenient for a while, and travelling far harder, but it could keep the economy running for the most part, and reduce the pressure on the NHS.

We've probably gone too far beyond that point to contain the virus without weeks more of a tight lockdown and fantastic testing and PPE provision. If we'd done it as it hit Italy and we saw what was happening there, then so many more people would be alive now.

There will not be a long lasting vaccine.
There will not be a cure.
Wash hands
Be sensible
Improve hygiene and PPE in care homes
get on with life

I have no idea why people are more relaxed about it.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265885480144470023.html

Yes - isn't the death rate in the over 80s about 15%? That's high but 85% chance of survival is considerably higher!

I am not sure the UK lockdown and the Swedish non-lockdown are significantly different from each other.

Looks like I'll be going to Morrisons, those queues are a nightmare.

Current figures still show a relatively high percentage need to be hospitalised.

Whilst getting on with life is tempting, at this point it would be reckless.

@duffeldaisy the restrictions imposed have served their purpose. The NHS was not overwhelmed. We need to get people back to work and kids back at school. We need non covid patients to have their treatment resumed.

This was never about preventing deaths from Covid. Sadly, people die everyday.

Sweden has shown that you can allow people to socialise, go to pubs and shops etc without any exponential increase in deaths

It seems Sweden is treading a tightrope... It’s numbers have declined a little but less than anywhere else in Europe. It seems they are social distancing just enough to prevent growth.

It’s wrong to say things in Sweden are operating normally.... Indeed, Norway and Denmark suppression tactics seem likely to get back to something far closer to normal far sooner than Sweden, which appears to be undergoing a low drawn out decline, which potentially could go pear shaped if the usually law-abiding Swedes loosen their discipline.

So whereas we have things to learn from Sweden, and arguably a draconian lockdown is unnecessary to make a big difference to numbers, we are a very different society to Sweden. Would their gentle advice have worked in the UK? I have my doubts.