Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

If a vaccine is not possible we may see genotypes being a possible way to evaluate risk and then potentially treat accordingly swiftly for those individuals.

Chic chic

Regular mask use.

Diet consisting of oily fish. Vit d
A obedient nation.

Japan is quite interesting in that it has tested VERY POORLY.

They reported 4,000 positives from 11,000 tests to late April. This is VERY BAD. A good positive test rate would be around 1 or 2%, not almost 40%! www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52466834

It implies there were many more asymptomatic cases. If you have asymptomatic cases then you should get many deaths.

I would not speculate further beyond this, in that as in Singapore we'd need to know WHO was infected.

The masks don't seem at all relevant in that very large numbers of people have plainly been infected, so masks DIDNT WORK.

Latest ONS death stats are out.

We have 14,573 deaths vs a normal 10k. Last week was 12,657

However last week Friday there were no registrations due to VE Day.

So we have deferral of around 1/6 of deaths from last week to this.

Hence not much point in graphing this.

In particular, note that deaths under 40 was up from 192 to 258, while the covid-19 deaths of this was DOWN from 23 to 20. Since people under 40 are basically not at risk from Covid-19, what we are seeing here is a simple anomaly of the week of registration....

Indeed, despite the increase in deaths by week of registration, caused solely by VE Day, the number of covid-19 deaths registered was DOWN or stable in every age group. The % of covid-19 deaths was down from 31% of the total deaths to 26%.

The more useful dataset is here

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/deathregistrationsandoccurrencesbylocalauthorityandhealthboard

Here we must note that there is a delay in registration of deaths at home.

So we HAD 2982 deaths at W19 + 8 days, and now that's 3230.

So this week the fall is just 92 deaths at home. So the total number is above January W1, but likely not as bad as the worst winters.

The care home death total at +8 days is MUCH better, down by 900 deaths, or 20%

And the hospitals are now almost deserted with deaths the lowest of any week this year.

Total deaths in care home/hospital/home was just 500 more than Week 11 (pre-covid-19). We will need to add around 1000 to the current provisional totals in time, but just from death counts, which reflect people infected now 3 to 4 weeks, and which are essentially nearly all old - 95% 60+ vs. 89% in late March, it doesn't seem that further 'extreme lockdown' is remotely justifiable.

I.e. in Singapore we know who was infected and we know that they are young. Therefore speculation about eating spicy food (as some were doing in Asia) is stupid because it's impossible to get s high IFR if.you infect only young people. In Japan I'm not aware of such good data as Singapore provide, so it's irresponsible to speculate.

Their diabetes rates are much higher than the UK as I understand - their diet has got worse

Thanks Shoots. Good to see care home deaths are dropping.
Total tangent but can I ask if you do this sort of thing as a job, or what is your background?

Well, Japan is still fascinating then.

They have high diabetes rates? Is that what you are saying EatsShoots?

I seem to remember in the news much earlier in the year an immense sense of panic in Japan. And pictures of HCP in rain coats instead of PPE? Headlines "possibly 400,000 deaths in Japan" etc.

The incredible statistics can't possibly all be down to mask wearing (we are told not that masks are not that effective in preventing transmission. Which is it? Very or not really?) and a diet high in Vitamin D.

See this story from mid April BBC news

Sorry, got your name wrong, ShootsFruits!

Only thing I would say re japan is that our friends over there said that they've handled this very badly since the start. Hard to know how that translates into stats etc.

Apparently Japan won't report April's death count till June 5.

asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Tokyo-s-excess-deaths-far-higher-than-COVID-19-count-data-shows

So best to assume they have rather more than 900 deaths. How many more? Re-evaluate in June

Seeing the U.K. excess deaths at 60k in the ons figures out today reminds of the headlines back in early April about the model that predicted that the U.K. Covid deaths would be just over 60k and the second highest in the world.
That now seems to be the case.

SHoots re Japan:
High amount of fish eaten - also fermented foods, if that has any effect

I was wondering if the masks prevented people getting a large amount of virus, so although they may catch COVID, it's with far fewer particles ?

"High amount of fish eaten - also fermented foods, if that has any effect"

I meant on avoiding the cytokine storm, which seems to be what causes a high % of the deaths

Japan does have near zero obesity, just 1/10 of the UK's rate. However obesity doesn't seem to be that important in older groups. They have far fewer old people in care homes, but more in hospitals.

NI reports zero COVID deaths ! 👏🏼

For the first time in 69 days

So what is the Japan model?

https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covid-19-strategy-the-japan-model/

First, it is a cluster-based approachh_,
derived from a hypothesis obtained from an epidemiological study based on Chinese data
and conducted on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that entered the port of Yokohama on February 3, 2020.

This hypothesis accounts for the many passengers who were not infected with the coronavirus despite having had close contact with infected persons.
It posits that the explosive increase in infected persons is a result of the high transmissibility of certain infected individuals, which forms a cluster.

Infected individuals with even higher transmissibility appear from these clusters to form more clusters and infect many others.

Based on this hypothesis, under the cluster-based approach, each cluster is tracked to the original infection source and persons with high transmissibility are isolated to prevent the spread of infection.

For this reason, pinpoint testing is carried out and broad testing of the population is not required, in contrast to the approaches taken in other countries.
^
This cluster-based approach is conditioned on an environment in which there are only a few infected persons^
and clusters are detectable at an early stage.
.....
For the cluster-based approach to be effective, protective measures at airports and ports are important.
.....
Another key to the Japan model is the social distancing method knownwn_ as “the three Cs,”*
referring to closed spaces with poor ventilation,
crowded places with many people nearby and
close-contact settings such as close-range conversations

< sorry, no idea why MN App added underlines >

Sample of antibodies in Lombardy, igG rates from 3 to 43% of people.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.20111245v1

From 3 to 43%? That's rather wildly different!

They looked at hospitals in different parts of Lombardy with different infection rates

Countrys with long ring fingers having lover rates now a possibility!

www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8357149/amp/Men-longer-ring-fingers-face-lower-risk-dying-Covid-19.html

Thank you for these fascinating threads and all of your analysis. Like many others I find it reassuring to see the numbers and facts behind the terrifying headlines.

I wonder if any of you know if there is a way to find out the estimated R level for a particular area? In my case, South London. With DS going back to school in a matter of days this is something I’d really like to know before committing to sending him in. Thanks

Untamed, I thought they were working towards that; I suppose they need more data?

From looking crudely at rates around the country and which councils have said to either not go back or have instructed schools to make their own judgements, I imagine there's an unofficial coding method beginning. Local councils will be privy to local data.