Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The Alzheimers Society are convinced that the increase deaths
"are resulting partly from increased cognitive impairment caused by isolation, the reduction in essential care as family carers cannot visit, and the onset of depression as people with dementia do not understand why loved ones are no longer visiting, causing them to lose skills and independence, such as the ability to speak or even stopping eating and drinking."

I think that is a very reasonable conclusion.

The damage that is being done due to Lockdown to this group is immense.

And they are not benefiting from the slow release of Lockdown.

I don't know the alternative but Lockdown us definitely speeding up the process of the disease in my personal experience.

I don't really understand the French data I'm afraid.

I'm not saying it is wrong but its quite different from other countries.

I don't think there was a significant amount if testing previously so similar to UK they would have had many unidentified cases.

There lockdown was stricter than the Uk but their deaths and number of new cases have fallen very sharply.

More so than any other country?

Yet I think they are still behind the UK for example in testing?

NZ expected to announce next week that Corona has been eliminated from the country

and that accordingly all controls, social distancing measures etc will be dropped,
except for external border controls
< phew if they've missed some asymptomatic cases ... >

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/cant-quite-believe-it-new-zealand-tiptoes-towards-elimination-of-coronavirus

Bear with me on this one.... musing again.

Currently reading a pathologists memoirs. Chapter on a black prisoner who died of oxygen starvation due to restraint methods. Post mortem revealed that he had sickle cell trait. Interesting on two counts. This case led to changes in the UK on restraint measures, very topical re: George Floyd in America and their restraint methods. I was then wondering whether Sickle Cell Trait could be a feature in increased deaths in black Afro Caribbean peoples, for Covid. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, but then media reporting is pretty rubbish.

I saw this in my regional newspaper, why is the increase in R number not in the national news? This is before shops have reopened, before a lot of people head back to work, before most school children are back at school, and the number is near or even above 1. It will only go up as Lockdown eases further. Will the North West have a local Lockdown until R is back below 1?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52931222

Another 123 people have died in hospitals in England after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total in the nation to 27,282.

Of the 123 new deaths:
19 occurred on 4 June
50 occurred on 3 June
23 occurred on 2 June
seven occurred on 1 June

The figures also show 19 of the new deaths took place in May, four occurred in April, and the remaining one death took place on 25 March.

Meanwhile, 14 more people have died in Scotland after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total there to 2,409.

Public Health Wales has announced four more people have died in Wales after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total there to 1,383.

And Northern Ireland's Department of Health has reported one further Covid-19-related death in Northern Ireland, bringing its total to 536

Very high rates of asymptomatic cases from that ONS data:

While those who have symptoms are more likely to test positive than those without symptoms, out of those within our study who have ever tested positive for COVID-19, 29% reported any evidence of symptoms at the time of the visit or at either the preceding or following visit

@Baaaahhhhh
Now that is a coincidence. I mentioned the Sickle Cell Trait to DH yesterday
You'd hope someone, somewhere would be doing some research into it.

Well, that's interesting - out of 357 deaths announced today, 220 are PHE "community" ones, whereas yesterday PHE's contribution was just 45

What was that someone said about the reports being all over the place ...?

We are in France and downloaded the app a couple of days ago. We get very detailed statistics here. I follow our regional ones and the report includes cases notified daily by A and E and by family doctors. It records numbers in hospital and numbers in intensive care. In our département (county) there are now 30 in hospital and one in intensive care. During the last week there have been no new cases. I don't know how they track and trace but the regional organisation is very strong and it does appear that at the moment they are right on top of it. The rules of lockdown have been very clear from the beginning and I think it is made easier for the police because our cars have our departmental number on the plate and everyone has to carry ID. This meant that during strict lockdown it was pretty easy to check people who were not where they should have been. The public messaging has been very consistent too.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Well, that's interesting - out of 357 deaths announced today, 220 are PHE "community" ones, whereas yesterday PHE's contribution was just 45

What was that someone said about the reports being all over the place ...?

Yes, does anyone know if the date of death for the non hospital settings is reported anywhere. I've seen the hospital ones but not the non hospital ones.

@InMySpareTime

I saw this in my regional newspaper, why is the increase in R number not in the national news? This is before shops have reopened, before a lot of people head back to work, before most school children are back at school, and the number is near or even above 1. It will only go up as Lockdown eases further. Will the North West have a local Lockdown until R is back below 1?

In Lancashire, at least, schools, nurseries and childminders have been discouraged from going back yet due to the R being higher than 1. Not sure about Manchester itself, but they don't think it's past the peak yet in Lancashire County.

Prematurely easing lockdown during a heatwave was always going to have a bad effect on controlling the virus. The protesters and the beach dwellers have hardly helped either.

Weeks too late to act, weeks too early to ease things up.

So do you think we are heading for a second wave?

Will the government lock down and not move
Into phase 3?

Has anyone been tracking the numbers of daily hospital admissions given at the briefings? I may have copied them down wrongly, but thought the figure for 27th May was 472, while it was quoted today as having been 740. Today's admissions number of 694 seems a big jump.

@Aubretia25

The slides for the briefings are available online so it should be easy enough to check. Overall admissions for the week were down.

@Mummypig2020
Yes
No

@Aubretia25

Has anyone been tracking the numbers of daily hospital admissions given at the briefings? I may have copied them down wrongly, but thought the figure for 27th May was 472, while it was quoted today as having been 740. Today's admissions number of 694 seems a big jump.

They appear to have changed from just reporting England to reporting all 4 nations. If you google briefing slides you can find all dates. You were right on 472 on the 27th but that was England only

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

I may have copied them down wrongly, but thought the figure for 27th May was 472, while it was quoted today as having been 740. Today's admissions number of 694 seems a big jump.

The government website provides underlying datasets to support daily slides:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-5-june-2020

Previously the slides used at daily briefings showed hospital admissions for England only. The numbers have now been restated to include whole of UK.

The numbers still appear to be going down if you adjust for the weekend dips and weekday spikes.

... working day spikes...

Yeah 472 was England only 740 was Eng/Wales/NI (694 today, I don’t know what the comparable figure for England only is). I assume they pick the number that better fits whichever narrative they want today.

was then wondering whether Sickle Cell Trait could be a feature in increased deaths in black Afro Caribbean peoples, for Covid.

There was some interesting discussion around this a few threads ago; can't quite remember it though!

Thanks to all who responded! Good to know they are still going down then.

Blood type is a factor of risk and they've mentioned vit K today too.

I know that you can't have vit K if on blood clotting meds such as warfarin.

Then the reports around this being a disease of the vascular system. Seems to a number of links.