Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

the number may be going down for the UK because Northern Ireland is improving. Clearly the South West and North West are not doing so well and in the south west people flocking to beaches may well be a cause.

Call me a cynic but when someone changes the presentation of the data considerably it suggests it doesnt fit with the narrative they want to present. When you add the absence of any scientific or medical experts AND the abolition of weekend press conferences there is a strong smell of fish.

In a few days they'll be able to blame the mass demonstrations if they cant hide increases.

@alreadytaken

the number may be going down for the UK because Northern Ireland is improving. Clearly the South West and North West are not doing so well and in the south west people flocking to beaches may well be a cause.

Call me a cynic but when someone changes the presentation of the data considerably it suggests it doesnt fit with the narrative they want to present. When you add the absence of any scientific or medical experts AND the abolition of weekend press conferences there is a strong smell of fish.

In a few days they'll be able to blame the mass demonstrations if they cant hide increases.

Although blaming demonstrations for increases will only work if the increases are in the cities where they took place (London, Birmingham, Bristol and Portsmouth).

If the increases are elsewhere (Devon and Cornwall or North-west England, for instance) there won't be any correlation, never mind causation.

I’ve had a quick look at the data sets. Numbers are down from a week ago in England (552 to 520) and Northern Ireland but slightly higher in Wales.

That said the daily admissions jump up and down so I’m not sure how helpful the daily figures are. A 7 day rolling average would give a better indication.

Neurotrash When my dad was put on warfarin he had a massive allergic reaction to it so they swapped him onto something else (can't remember the name) the Cardiologist on the ward told me that Vit K reversed the effect of the drug.

Chers big demo in Liverpool yesterday.

We need to know if R is going up in regions because of some localised outbreaks in care homes etc which can be locked down,
or whether this is in the wider community

The German scientists who have been estimating their R value for months always stress as cases decrease local outbreaks have a bigger impact on the value causing fluctuations.

A few days ago their R value was 1.2, yesterday it was 0.57.

[quote whatsnext2]Tbf most of the risk is biological one way or another.

Confirmation of risk associated with blood group:

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.20114991v1[/quote]
Also

Reduced Vitamin K Status as A Potentially Modifiable Prognostic Risk Factor in COVID-19

www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0457/v1

Vitamin k is part of the blood clotting cascade.

This is the seven day rolling average for UK admissions - down, but very much a slooooooow decline now.

The Wales numbers are erratic to say the least, but their seven day rolling average has been pretty stable for about 2.5 weeks, rather than declining.

@NewAccountForCorona
Sorry about your dd’s trauma. I don’t use the term lightly- like all survivors she is not to blame and needs to remember to give herself the love and care she has given others.

On the slides 15 outbreaks in schools of which 9 comfirmed i think it say i just cant see what that means? As it says above an outbreak is 2 cases. And this is half term week so KW only and before schools have reopened.

I see now not only is n somerset (wsm) going red but also i think somerset or minehead county. So that will be as far down as the day tripers are going. With only 2-4% immunity in SW this is going to end very badly over the school holidays.
I think the protests will give interesting information if london is already 17% to see if another wave is started by all those people many of whom close together and probably using PT.

Speeding Virologists here are saying that it is clusters that are important for COVID,
so tracking and isolating the 10% of infected people that are probably producing 80% of the cases

The German R0 has been oscillating a lot since confirmed cases went down to well below 1000.
Small local outbreaks have been locked down, but dominate the low numbers of cases and hence distort R0

So the national R0 is not considered important atm, because it does not represent the situation in the community, at least as long as it is not much above 1 and only for a few days

I don't know if the UK cases are yet at that level for the national R0 to be less important,
but the UK regional R0 numbers may be very dominated by local outbreaks that have not entered the wider community.

@whatsnext2 that blood type study hasn’t been peer reviewed and I have seen this link multiple times in the past few weeks but no others so I don’t think it’s confirmation of blood type risk.

Indeed, and one of the issues with our R is that we are not being given an idea of how it breaks down between care homes/hospitals/community. I think one of the scientists did refer to it the other day, but didn't give any detail - referring to the suggestion that R in care homes/communities is higher, which makes sense, and in the community lower. Which means it is more easily controllable, as outbreaks in those environments should be more containable once we become aware of them.

I suspect the Govt do access to an idea of R in different environments but choose to not make it public; the calculation of R is complicated enough at national level, breaking it down to regional level and setting level adds another layer of likely error and as BigChoc observes in Germany, confusing oscillation. Saying an R is statistically likely to be between, say, 0.6 and 1.3 really isn't helpful!

Corona- it's not her fault. We really messed up with ppe and then testing. It really would surprise me more if hcp were antibody negative. It must literally have been all over hospitals.
No testing- ambulance probably not in ppe then patient going to wrong bit of a&e and wards. Cross infection. Staff not allowed to wear any masks or not the proper ones while dealing with non positive patients.

Drs all then sat with no masks at the computers close to each other.
Wards so nowhere to put people with a contagious disease.
There was that article where the famous cancer patient dad had a f2f appt just before lockdow n caught covid and dead in 10d.
Immunity of KW will definitely help stifle any second wave though (obviously it would have been much better to have protected them properly).
Wsm hospital probably shows what happened at each hospital , get some cases and gradually lots of staff infected.
Now they are swabbing before ops it should hopefully become clearer which hospital have an infection control problem.

@tootyfruitypickle take your point but so many papers on covid at the moment even the ones that are peer reviewed are often rushed, several retractions recently.

@whatsnext2, yes it’s something that bears more research, but I really think something like that would be of minor importance in the whole risk gambit. There will be multiple factors , plus luck, that make up an individuals risk. It’s surely like cancer risk, you could have multiple risks but not get it, or a tiny risk but get it. On a individual basis basis it’s fairly meaningless. There seem to be other much clearer risk factors .

NL: COVID-19 Sewage research

https://www.kwrwater.nl/en/actueel/update-covid-19-sewage-research/

In the case of sewage, one test is sufficient to determine whether an entire population is infected with the coronavirus.
The advantage of this method is that it is very specific and sensitive.

We test whether the virus is circulating in a city or municipality, not who is or who is not infected within that population.

The significance of sewage research is that if it is done regularly over a long period
(we have a weekly frequency in mind, in a large and representative number, for instance, in a hotspot or even where no corona patients have been reported),

we can determine whether the coronavirus is slowly disappearing in the population (‘flattening of the curve’)
and whether – presumably in the winter – it is returning.

In early February, we noted that the sewage flashed ‘red’ before patients above-ground showed any signs of the coronavirus.

@tooty for sure, but it all contributes to a bigger picture. All the random bits, like baldness or whatever may be red herrings or turn out to be significant.

Neurotrash When my dad was put on warfarin he had a massive allergic reaction to it so they swapped him onto something else (can't remember the name) the Cardiologist on the ward told me that Vit K reversed the effect of the drug.

That's interesting pussy both my relatives who are on it have been moved off warfarin and on to a newer drug as a direct result of Corvid. I'm not sure why, though an easier blood test was one suggestion?

Ah didn't realise that tooty. But yes all this is part of a wider picture.

Im Exhausted from trying to argue with an acquaintance who believes the whole thing has been blown out of proportion to control us. That scientists are being silenced. That wearing masks is the first step to controlling us. Proper tin hat stuff.

Someone cited the HCQ (trump drug) retraction as proof it was an effective treatment. Luckily the bbc just then published the report that shows greater risk of death if it's used as a treatment. Boom!

Oh and Bill Gates is the devil.

@BigChocFrenzy
Really interesting, thank you

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2637725/?utm_source=showcase&fbclid=IwAR3IoAXv3YrkkfSz0DsZ1LNxHInTPPj_WeJyaxWY2zRcIzfbXEwphaiAXFw

@NeurotrashWarrior

demonstrations will be blamed regardless of truth - after all if you can drive 260 miles looking for childcare you can travel to a demonstration.

Thanks for the latest figure for England - down on 7 days ago but up on the previous 3 days.