Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Part of the answer to the much higher male death rate ?

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

Bald men may be at higher risk of suffering from severe Covid-19 symptoms, emerging evidence suggests.
......
increasingly they believe it could be because androgens - male sex hormones like testosterone -
may play a part not only in hair loss, but also in boosting the ability of coronavirus to attack cells.

Woah. Didn't see that coming. What about for women with hormone issues with androgens and testosterone? Is there any risk there? Or does the oestrogen balance it? And what about for trans men?

Newaccount that's horrendous :(

Oh good. I have a clinically highly vulnerable, bald DH! Marvellous.

Your poor DD new. Would she go to her union about this?

That is really shocking @new

Has anyone who has the COVID app had a message to say "you can help to stop a hot spot in your area..."

Just wondering if they're putting that our nation wide or just my area

Bit late to the party but I got it too, East Midlands.

Also got the email about swabbing

Bloody hell new, I've been saying for weeks they should be bending over backwards to test as many people as they can no matter how symptomatic they are. It is literally the only way out of this - to catch the ones who don't know if they've got it.

This article on testing is interesting, it seems to me that this is what we should be looking to achieve.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-latest-tony-blair-testing-trace-nhs-covid19-a9550041.html%3famp

Has anyone seen the regional R ratings that Andy Burnham (Manchester mayor) tweets? How reliable are they?

He's tweeted this week & last side by side, showing an increase week on week, which if reliable is worrying.

The ONS says MASSIVE FALLS in the number of people infected with covid-19. For the last week in May, the total infected was estimated to be more than 0.4%. It is now just 0.1%, and it's 95% certain that the total is below 0.2%.

The total infected is falling by roughly 25% each week.

This is for week of 24th May to 30th May.

Those who work outside are far more likely to have been infected.

With 60,000 people currently infected and a 25% weekly decay rate, which may get worse in coming weeks, the total should fall by another 75% in 5 weeks.

If the 75% rate continues, in five months we would have 100 infections.

However that's five months behaving like now. And that 100 could potentially go back to millions infected within a month if we behaved as before.

So there does not seem to be any possible way to return behaviour to 'normal' in 2020. Absolutely no way.

We will experiment with things, and the economy will be various kinds of fucked for a long time. And of course winter with bad weather, people inside there would be a small 'reservoir' left of infections to kill tens of thousands more, IF we went back to normal.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020

@ shoots, i have just been reading the ons survey on non covid excess deaths, is very interesting. Have got a rough idea of what is says but hopefully you can explain. Think this is it,

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex

newaccountforcorona that's worse than most of us feared. I've certainly been kidding myself that front line staff now have as much access to testing as they want/need and have done for a while.

A friend of mine's dd is a nurse at a major London hospital; her ward was made into a Covid ward in March and she has been either there or on the high dependency unit.

In early April, nearly all the patients on the HDU were hospital staff, mainly nurses.

It was very obvious then that hospital staff in all departments and job roles had had extremely high exposure to the virus, and it is an absolute crime that they haven't been tested regularly.

I'm so sorry for your dd but as Shoots says, she has done absolutely nothing wrong. It must be extremely distressing for her and her colleagues though.

Sending kindest wishes.

Those who work outside are far more likely to have been infected.

Does this mean outside the home? Otherwise I am a bit confused. I thought outside was safer?

NewAccount its 100% not her fault. She should not feel bad.

What I think we do need to know is how many people were admitted to hospital with C-19 and how many caught it when already in hospital.

Less than 1 in 1000 currently infected with covid in the UK, according to the guardian.

@Piggywaspushed

Those who work outside are far more likely to have been infected.

Does this mean outside the home? Otherwise I am a bit confused. I thought outside was safer?

Yes, outside the home not outside. The difference is between WFH and WOH.

@Humphriescushion I haven't read it all yet, but it seems to address the points I have made previously, namely that the excess deaths are old people and probably covid-19, that young people's violent deaths take months to register and so on

It seems to cut off on 1 May, which is very unfortunate and I haven't really read it in full, but it seems that there's therefore no discussion of the decline to zero of (excess - covid-19) deaths in recent weeks

Thanks shoots, yes shame it is only till 1st.

newaccountforcorona I'm so sorry for your daughter. I understand how she will be feeling right now but none of this is her fault. The failure to supply PPE, the failure to test health care staff - they were not her decisions and she did what she could in very distressing circumstances. What she should be feeling, as we all should, is anger at the multiple failures of this government.

The main takeaway from the excess deaths report seems to be the conclusion that the number of excess deaths from dementia/alzheimers (with no mention of COVID on the death certificate) is "so sharp that it is implausible that the full increase observed could have happened by chance."

The report has 12,900 excess deaths (out of 46,380, from 7 March/1 May) did not have COVID on the death certificate, 5,404 of which were from dementia/alzheimers.

(If that trend was the same through end May, we could conceivably be in a position now where we have some 65k excess deaths, 18k of which are non COVID.)

Its impossible to say, as yet, how many of those excess deaths were from COVID as, especially in the very old/infirm it may not have been obvious. However, that's unlikely to be the whole explanation.

The Alzheimers Society are convinced that the increase deaths
"are resulting partly from increased cognitive impairment caused by isolation, the reduction in essential care as family carers cannot visit, and the onset of depression as people with dementia do not understand why loved ones are no longer visiting, causing them to lose skills and independence, such as the ability to speak or even stopping eating and drinking."

That's interesting from the Alzheimer's society.

But 'partly' could be 1%. And again, why did these deaths stop exceeding the covid-19, even as covid-19 deaths fell, and presumably before visits restarted

The head of the French government’s scientific advisory council has said COVID is "under control" there - with around 1,000 infections a day. I'm not sure what they are doing in terms of track and trace - their app was only planned for launch in June, so clearly that's not the answer!

According to the ONS, in England there were approx. 39,000 new infections on average per week in May, which is around 5,600 a day, down from the previous estimate released on 28th May of 7,700 - a decline of around 27%. At the same rate of decline it will take about 6 weeks to get where France are.

@NewAccountForCorona Im so sorry your daughter feels like this. None of the blame lies at her feet and I hope she realises that in time. She has every right to be angry and upset but none of that should be aimed at herself. The whole thing has been farcical from the start to present