Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The Guardian and Sky News both do it neuro.

@Littlebelina I find the fact that there is no official number of daily tests baffling. As you say, apparently it's die right a change in the way this number is going to be reported and or recorded.

However, surely the correct approach is to continue one system whilst getting the replacement system up and running? Then once the new system is ready, it replaces the old one.

Completely withdrawing the 'old' system without the new one ready seems like a poor methodology, and feels a bit 'cloak and dagger'.

Agree peoplepleaser, the logical part of me says to take them at their word for the reason as it'll surely all come out in the wash anyway but maybe I'm naive. But the constant unavailable means people speculate on why and this doesn't help reassure in a time when we should be if we can.

There's also the issue that the figure for tests includes /included tests carried out PURELY for testing community infection rates, ie those where subjects were never given the result as that wasn't the purpose of them.

Explained on Radio4's brilliant More or Less.

I just checked the update (01.06.2020) for my area. It's + 33 for Berlin and +0 for my quarter - given that it is a holiday in Germany I expect a slight delay.

I am still waiting for more information about this 'dark matter' my immune system is supposed to have...., I read the article linked and it does seem a bit like catching at straws (there's a cool 'standupmaths' video on that method)

@NeurotrashWarrior yes asymptomatic can produce antibodies but they may be IgA so local eg in mucous membranes or IgG and IgM which show up in blood. However it seems that antibodies aren’t magic tool as not everyone produces them and they last for varying amounts of time, sometimes only a few months.

The 'dark matter' is probably similar to the genetic selection that allowed survival from the Black death (and maybe towards HIV).

There are also some theories that suggest there may have been several unrecognised SARS type viruses before this but much milder which allowed T cell immunity to develop.

Thanks whatsnext, it's fascinating but also shows how little we can depend on various assumptions for individuals.

I suppose it's also near impossible to know if there's been a similar SARS virus recently that didn't create the extreme deaths, so brushed off as a common cold, but did give mild immunity.

I find the Black Death gene stuff equally fascinating. The Eyam gene is a folklore thing that seems to be true in that a few descents from the village do indeed appear to never get poorly.

prokup I'm wondering if I'll also acquire this German "dark matter" by osmosis, since I'm living in Germany 😂

Currently, deaths have massively fallen in most European countries,
except Sweden - which is presumably due to not locking down

UK deaths also falling, but more gradually - probably due to the too late lockdown

Germany's deaths have been double digit for quite a while now, sometimes only single digit
So reopening schools since 4 May, then shops, gyms etc has not caused a 2nd wave

No 2nd wave anywhere on the continent
We don't know if there will ever be a 2nd wave

• now we know more about which types of social distancing are important

and with a system for local lockdowns to squash small outbreaks before they spread.

imo the UK should also be reopening now in stages, including schools as an enabler for parents to work
What is odd though is the choice of school years to reopen:

Here, first classes to come back to school were all old enough to socially distance:
the final year at primary school
plus those at secondary school with important exams in the next couple of years
That enabled schools to get used to social distancing and tweak where necessary.

Other years have since rotated in, so all pupils will have attended school at some time,
before breaking up at the end of June as usual for the summer vacation

Kindergarten, nurseries and other childcare are opening from about 2 June here,
so all parents should soon be able to work ft again

Holiday childcare should be open for all kids
and schools are expected to reopen full-time after the vacation, for all pupils

Can I ask a question about R....

So I just read this article which says German cases are still decreasing but the R has gone up a little. I don’t get it. (I thought I got it before!) On what basis do they know that R has gone up if cases are going down? That just doesn’t make sense to me. Shouldn’t an increase in R mean some kind of increase in cases?
apple.news/AnTVOn0iCRPyKMbGy1UZ4WA

Letting local authorities and schools decide should be the way forward

So e.g. London schools open first, along with schools in areas with currently low cases & deaths
but those regions where infections don't seem to be declining, e.g. NW, could wait longer

When cases are so low, R0 > 1 for a few days is more a mathematical blip than a sign of infection growth

Especially since the new cases are mostly localised in care homes, meat processing plants, a DPD depot - all of which can be closed down and a local lockdown reimposed

The national R0 is dominated atm by these - but they are not important nationally

If R0 increased much above 1 and stayed there, then we could see infection growth genuinely restarting
However, no sign of this so far

The Uk also needs to look at where its new cases are
If they are also mainly localised in institutions, then imo national R0 shouldn't constrain relaxation for the rest of the country

Lockdown should only have been a temporary pause button:

to squash down infections and regain control
to build up health services and public health tracking
to learn how to better treat this novel virus
to learn which social distancing measures are actually necessary

@BigChocFrenzy

My understanding is that care homes and hospitals are pulling up the overall R value, I believe SAGE put the R value in the community at nearer 0.5.

Bigchoc some LEAs in the north east are delaying till the 8th or 15th. They're also allowing schools to make the decisions on which years or children to prioritise.

Each school has local cohorts that are very different and so will know what would be a priority. Many areas of the ne has the three tier system too, so transition year is y4 not y6.

I do think R and y1 were in some ways good idea as at least older years are more used to the format of school and formal learning. They're also the years more at risk of abuse. But they are harder to manage in an SD way.

No one is clear why they chose those yr groups as they completely ignored the suggestions in the SAGE.

I read that because of insurance, UK schools can't let in years except those the govt specified

A MAT local (ish) to me is making a big song and dance (articles in local paper with headmistress) about taking year 5 in only (so none of the required years). Her reasoning was that only older children can social distance and year 6 are so close to leaving there is no point. (I suspect next SATs are probably more on her mind). So I don't know if the insurance thing doesn't apply to academies or is an urban myth or if she is in for a nasty shock.

I'm glad to hear that full time is the plan in Germany next term BigChoc, although I can see why schools might need to plan for continued part time I don't feel it should be the default position as in Scotland. It'll be disruptive to both children and working parents.

If it's a MAT, the decision wouldn't have been made by the Head, it would have been made by the central team.

But yes definitely, decisions about school openings should be localised with attention given to the local numbers etc.

Yep, sorry she is the CEO (our MAT which is a different one has an executive headmaster so assumed theirs was the same). Either way she has been in the local paper 3 times since they announced the schools reopening

Possibly but they'd stated they want other year groups back in July. Not sure how the insurance would discriminate tbh as obviously vulnerable and kw children are in at the moment.

I sit on the board for a 20+ school MAT.

There can't be an insurance issue with regards starting the "wrong" years, since every DfE document on this situation starts by saying This is guidance only and schools can decide.

The recommendations (not requirements) for primaries as they stand are:

• Start with EYFS, Y1, Y6
• Full time
• Y2, Y3, Y4, Y5 to open during June
• Prioritise opening for younger years first.

So it would be allowed to bring back Y5 first. It would mean disregarding prioritising younger years first, but there are plans currently for Y5 to be bought back any time in June that the school sees fit.

I suspect the recommendation to bring back Y2-Y5 will be quietly dropped. But as it stands right now, it hasn't been.

FATE re "guidance only"...
That rather useful phrase also prefaces all of the Building Regulations Approved Documents...I wonder when the Grenfell enquiry will restart?

BigChoc
Berlin breaks up for the summer at the end of June.
DS has to go in for a few lessons in his exam subjects, the rest remains online - but then his school is of the opinion that almost adults aiming for university ought to be able to learn independently (teachers and DS's assistent are available though) and the younger ones need it more.

Gatherings of up to 50 people in private settings are allowed, so the Abitur celebration for the year above can take place in an adjusted (and cheaper) setting.