Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

115 more deaths today - more than last Monday. Seems like the deaths are either plateauing or rising up again

Last Monday was a bank holiday though, usually lower? Haven't seen today's figures yet. I'm more interested in my local area where cases are rising.

I have just discovered the DIVI Intensivregister - sombody asked about sth like that upthread.
It tells you daily how many ICU beds are available and where.

www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister - click to Länder Tabelle

GrayGardens88

Not actually. Don't forget these are only deaths declared per day. Look at the NHS graph, as see that many/most deaths declared are now from previous dates. This is only hospital deaths though.

Most days recently have been lower than the same day the previous week. I wouldn’t assume a change of direction or even a plateau until several days in a row have been higher. One day can just be statistical noise.

I haven't seen the UK numbers yet but NHS England reported 108 deaths today, last Monday was only 59 obviously under-reported on a bank holiday, the Monday before that was 122.

Wasn't there some blip last week with ONS taking off double counted deaths which caused an artificially low count. Can't remember which day though. I was hoping for our first day below a hundred this weekend. Oh well.

Found it

@BigChocFrenzy the reason given for reception and Y1 is that they are the hardest to replicate teaching at home. The majority won't be confident readers so can't be left to get on with assignments freeing up parents to WFH.

Whether it is feasible is a different question. We have a 4 form year at DCs school, and they have found more key workers' kids are returning from this week which has impacted what they can offer for other years. As a result they are opening just for Y6 from 15 June but even they will only do half days every other week. Then will see if they can extend it further. Under current guidelines they can't get more than 8 kids in a classroom, and as there are normally 120 in a year, it's a huge challenge.

Uk deaths today is 111, last Monday's figures as of today were 121. Obviously more will be added to today's in the coming days.

How come the deaths don’t add up? Yesterday’s total 38489 plus today’s 111 is 38600 not the reported total 39045? Which number is wrong here??

The figure for last Monday was on a bank holiday. The 121 and today's figures will both change .Last week's likely already has.

Today's will not necessarily be a higher number in time. it depends on death rates, Both reflect the day's reported figures, few of which happen on the day.

Today's total includes an extra correction of 445 to include pillar 2 tested deaths (i.e from commercial labs) in the PHE numbers. Extra deaths are from the period 24 April - 31 May.

It's the downside of using multiple data sources from multiple places (deaths in the community, in hospitals, in care homes, tests from multiple places).

Prokupatus The interactive Berliner Morgenpost is good for German ICU beds:

interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/

It shows how small a % of beds are occupied by COVID patients - atm averages about 1 patient for every 2 hospitals.

Even if cases start to rise, with 40% of ICU beds free,
that's about 12,000 more COVID patients they could put in ICU - and there were only about 3,000 during the April peak, even after having taken in 200+ French, NL, Italian ICU patients.

@BigChocFrenzy (I like that name)
Thanks for the link.
I think the BerMo get's their data from the DIVI (my DB told me to look there - my family works in geriatric care or teaches, apart from me - I couldn't do this. Unless I had to, of course)
But yes, i think with this capacity we should be able to relax the rules a little.

@PatriciaHolm whilst that does make sense, I wish they would clear and transparent about that. This happened last week as well, so that’s over 660 deaths they haven’t told us about, just ‘added to the list’. That’s over 660 actual PEOPLE who have died and they are not telling us about it clearly enough imo

Interesting that the WHO now seem to be more openly considering the possibility that the virus was circulating earlier than previously thought. I understand that there was no spike in excess deaths until later on (in the U.K. at least) so presumably not in large numbers but interesting.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

Apologies if it’s already been covered!

COVID deaths across Europe - 4 weeks after several countries started relaxing lockdown

Also, multiply Sweden's (pop 10 million) 84 deaths by 6-7 to compare with UK's 67 million.
Only one day's snapshot, but the UK's deaths have been declining more rapidly than Sweden's
However, the Swedish public still have high trust in their government (all of whom are obeying their rules) and remain calm - different attitudes to risks & restrictions.

Looking at Zoe app. The Isle of Wight now has zero cases 😊

I think levels of trust in government is really key.

There were very high levels of compliance in the UK for the first weeks of lock down. Much outrage about non-essential workers like construction workers who were being made to use public transport and work etc. Lots of mutual aid groups set up. Lots of agreement with 'save lives, stay at home'. A definite sense of individual actions contributing to a greater good.

That has been considerably eroded by the govt's own actions and the lack of coherence in policies and decision making.

We are almost certainly going to see quite a jump in the daily deaths in the UK today thanks to the reporting cycles (combination today of lag from weekend plus PHE are due a rise again after a couple of very low days, looking at their regular cycle). If you look at day of death not day of reporting the trend is clearly down, but it won't look like that today I don't think.

This is a very interesting article on the covid-19 timeline:

appeasement.org

Here is the weekly deaths chart.

Last week's for comparison - numbers are by DoD +8days from week ending Friday (up to 22 May most recently)

As we can see the hospitals are now ridiculously empty of dying people, with a further 300 fall in deaths in hospital since W20+8 to W21+8. This will be by far the lowest death count in hospital of every week this year. Care home deaths fell by 400, but deaths at home by only 140. However home deaths should be about W1 January levels, and below bad winters.

it is likely now that many care home residents who would normally die in hospital are dying instead in their care homes.

Note that only 9798 deaths have been registered occurring W21 to W21+8. This is at +8 days.

This contrasts with the final count of 12,288 deaths registered DURING W21. These 12,288 deaths will have occurred up to a year before, but mostly in W20.

W21 death occurrences should end up just below 11,000. This is far, far short of normal winter levels, but people are still terrified of covid-19, so a big deal will be made of it. We expect around 9500 deaths at this time of year.

Only one day's snapshot, but the UK's deaths have been declining more rapidly than Sweden's
However, the Swedish public still have high trust in their government (all of whom are obeying their rules) and remain calm - different attitudes to risks & restrictions.

Sweden’s cases don’t seem to be dropping at all... Today’s was 3rd highest number since pandemic began. Also, a quick extrapolation from mid-April shows that had our deaths changed at the same rate, we’d be at 55,000 deaths.