Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@Reastie front line services locally to us are heading back to attempt services as pre covid-Some elective work has commenced with strict swabbing protocols.
Wards are quieter than normal, numbers of covid patients decreasing. Staff heading back to normal work locations/specialities and normal hours/shift patterns.
The psychological effects for some will likely take a long time to adjust to and I wonder if some will consider whether they want to/can continue to work in healthcare.

@BigChocFrenzy

Perhaps the difference is that Germans have more trust that their Government will act competently and not let things spiral out of control.

@Derbygerbil

That may well be true but we’ve got the government that we’ve got. We will have to move forward at some point, we can’t stay still forever because we’re worried the tories will balls it up if we move.

I didn’t vote for this lot but plenty did and we’re stuck with them now.

Anyone not getting the normal chart on worldometers? Normally it goes straight to the list of countries with cases, deaths etc. Now it seems to have disappeared - or at least i cant find it.

dd (front line, London) is as busy as every. She works between two wards, depending on shift, Covid CCU (getting less busy as a hospital, though her ward is busier than ever as other wards are being put back to "normal") and her usual surgical ward which is now getting busier as the gangs are back out on the streets.

So she's still flat out. Other parts of the hospital are much, much quieter.

Psychologically she's just about done. She's been at this since the beginning of March, extra shifts most weeks and holiday cancelled. I anticipate a complete breakdown when it calms down a bit

I have heard, although hearsay and not data, that London hospitals planning for another peak and possible lockdown July.

NewAccountForCorona I agree that burnout is a very live risk for HCPs . How long is leave cancelled for? They'll need to let people start taking it soon, or everyone will be off next Feb/March.

7000 new cases per day

cantkeepawayforever Where did you get that? The last few days have been around the 2,000 mark, and I understand these are now mostly in hospital and care homes, not in the general community.

www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/2020/may/29/im-an-nhs-consultant-were-exhausted-and-a-second-surge-is-on-its-way

This makes sense about NHS frontline staff - they managed the first peak but this paragraph sums it up.

This new phase is difficult, uncertain, draining. There are endless planning meetings and constantly changing advice. Many of us still struggle with insomnia and then there’s the toll on our our mental health; just like everyone else in lockdown we struggle to turn off when away from work. Goodwill to our government and our employers is beginning to fray, and I fear for the resilience of our workforce – whether a second peak hits or not. Mentally, we are not the same as we were at the beginning.

I know people are harping on about how 'quiet' it is in hospitals, how NHS workers are getting freebies etc but it definitely must affect them.

Where did you get that? The last few days have been around the 2,000 mark, and I understand these are now mostly in hospital and care homes, not in the general community

Is this the difference between the number actually captured and confirmed and data taken from other sources like the Zoe app and assumed numbers based on admissions. I'm sure Vallance said the number of new cases was many times the numbers captured through testing only yesterday, and although I don't remember clearly - I'm sure it was more than 7k .

It's the 8th slide of this set:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888353/2020-05-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf

and to be honest I have understated it, because
a) it's given as 54,000 estimated new cases over the last week, and 7x7000 is only 49,000. 95% confidence interval = 34,000 to 86,000 in the last week, so between 5,000 and 12,000 per day and
b) it doesn't include any cases in hospitals, care homes or other institutions

The 2,000 figure is just about tested and confirmed figures, and the government themselves state that the actual numbers are much higher. What matters for transmission risk within schools and their communities is the actual number of cases out there (c.0.25%, or 1 in 400 of the population outside hospitals, care homes and institutions), not the number of those who have come forward and been diagnosed with positive tests.

We need to compare like with like
Normally the only data we have are the confirmed new cases issued by each country

The estimated 54,000 new cases per week and the 0.25% is based on the random swab tests. Data here:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

R0 calculations: National and Subnational estimates for the United Kingdom

Nationally they calculate 0.9 - 1.1, average 1.0
However, R0 calculations are always lookng at the past several days

https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/

Yes, to guage the speed of the virus comparing like with like is important but the pp seemed to suggest that there were only 2k new cases per day which would be awesome but unfortunately it's not the case.

Well, in Germany the confirmed few hundred cases per day is also not the full figure, by a long way.
We all realise that
Same in France, or Spain etc

The original comment was stating that the UK couldn't relax lockdown due to having 7k daily cases whereas the other countries had a few hundred

If we are to look at other countries for the criteria to relax, then we do need to compare like with like

So BigChoc,

Even if I only use the 'tested and confirmed' figure of 2312 new cases per day - this is still at least 10x higher than in the countries you are comparing us to.

Why do you think it is equally safe to return to schools in country A, where new infections per day are 20, in country B, where they are 200, and in country C, where they are 2,000? Especially where the details of how schooling is organised and the protective measures taken against COVID in schools in country C are also not up to the same standard as in Countries A and B?

@BBCONEANDTWO yes I worry for the frontline nhs staff, they’ve gone through so much already. There’s going to be a limit to what people can cope with.

@NewAccountForCorona that must be incredibly hard for your dd.

With testing discrepancies, possibly looking at total deaths is the fairest, although it has a longer time lag than official daily deaths

When Germany started relaxations in early May, daily deaths were 100 - 250
Now in double digits for several days, so no signs yet of a 2nd wave

However, I don't know if the UK economy and its school kids can wait until deaths stay below 250.
The question is what is a manageable number for a country of 67 million, providing the number of cases and deaths are reducing, even if slowly.
That is a decision for the govt

When Germany started relaxing measures in early May, cases were above 1,500

We have to compare where countries were when they started, not where they are now, 3-4 weeks later

That's when schools started to return here

Is it the number of people that is crucial or the density and connectivity of that population, set against the number of vectors per head of population? Because I think impatience will be more costly in the long run if we part ways with lockdown too soon.

I'm hopeful that the fact Germany hasn't seen a second wave means that what we are doing will be fine but I think it is risky to assume that we have the same tipping point.

Anyway, glad it's not my decision.

Some NHS staff were encouraged to take leave in May, in anticipation of a higher workload in June. Virus related work has dropped but other work continues. Emergency work has never stopped and some normal work has restarted. Sleep was high on the agenda for their "holiday" time.

Some of the normal things staff would do to cope are not possible in lockdown and there have been more deaths than usual. It is physically and emotionally draining .

Even if I only use the 'tested and confirmed' figure of 2312 new cases per day - this is still at least 10x higher than in the countries you are comparing us to.

Where do you get at “least 10x” from? It’s about 1/4 to 1/3 as far as I can see from Worldometers.... so a lot lower, yes, but not by as much as you are suggesting.

Sweden’s trajectory is interesting... case numbers seem to have been pretty much flat-lining for weeks. However, they could have increased testing capacity which would of course impact on any conclusions drawn.