Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 9

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 9 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Even if I only use the 'tested and confirmed' figure of 2312 new cases per day - this is still at least 10x higher than in the countries you are comparing us to

I have only looked at yesterday:

UK-1867
Spain-1137
France- 3325 ( but weird catch up spike I think)
Germany- 557
Italy- 593

Also bear in mind the other countries have already loosened lockdown and we are behind them by 1-2 weeks.

The 7000 ( in fact PV said 9k yesterday) figures of infection are extrapolated calculations based on sampling and the Kings' tracker. It is reasonable to assume that the testing in other countries misses a similar proportion, as our testing is now much more extensive and our tests per million are gradually catching up with the rest of Europe after a very slow start.

France was reoporting very very low cases ( 300 etc) ( but not sure what was happening with testing so i was not using it as a reliable marker). Yesterday the cases jumped to 3000 plus - this was i believe because the tracking system was up an running and they can count these more accurately now. Think i am trying to say that when france came out of lockdown ( mostly not totally) on the 11th the cases would have been much higher than reported.

The blip for France:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200528-confirmed-french-coronavirus-cases-jump-due-to-systems-update-but-daily-deaths-stay-low

The number of confirmed coronavirus infections in France jumped by 3,325 to 149,071 on Thursday,
though the increase was not due to a rise in daily infections but was a result of the inclusion of data from a new tracking system,
the health ministry said in a statement.

"The increase compared to yesterday is due to more efficient tracking, not to the epidemiological situation in France,”

Yes think that was what i thought, it is the new system, i expect cases to be higher now and not a one off blip where cases were just added in. Will watch and see.

"Sweden’s trajectory is interesting... case numbers seem to have been pretty much flat-lining for weeks."

afaik, they haven't increased testing
and also their deaths are only decreasing very slowly, which matches up with this

This different curve behaviour seems to be because they didn't lockdown
and hence their social distancing measures didn't squeeze down infections as much as those who did lockdown
e.g. deaths in Sweden several x higher / million pop than their Scandi / Nordic neighbours

Surprisingly, the serology studies in Sweden indicate only 17% with antibodies in Stockholm and about 5% average over the whole country
(vs 1% in Denmark, Norway)

So they've a fair way to go before their goal of herd immunity

However, the Swedish public accept a much higher level of deaths in return for avoiding lockdown - which would have broken several constitutional safeguards & customs.

They also have a high level of trust in their government and public health experts.
That's a prerequisite for the "Swedish Strategy" - and why it wouldn't have worked in the UK, with a shambolic government, a cynical public and a mistrust of experts

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1.full.pdf

Preprint showing immunity from SARS 1 infected in 2003 have T cell immunity to SARS 2

The T Cell immunity research is really interesting.

@whatsnext2

Thanks - this is actually a very interesting paper. I am wondering whether there are reliable methods to test people for T cell immunity rather than for traditional IgG antibodies. The outcomes may be different.

That's very important knowledge

First question:
does a mild case, or one without symptoms, affect T-cells sufficiently to give immunity ?

@wintertravel1980

I thought exactly the same thing. The low levels of antibody immunity we are seeing might not be an accurate reflection of immunity if they don’t “catch” people who are t-cell immune.

Sorry if I have missed it elsewhere, but has any research been reported from reliable sources as to how people are still catching Covid-19? Are people actually being asked this question when testing positive? For example, do they think they picked it up from another family member who has had it, from a positive colleague at work or the supermarket if they live alone and do not work and this is the only place they go? If people don't know anyone else who has it but are still testing positive, can we assume infection via unwashed shopping or the post? Just wondering how thousands are still picking up infections with all the advice about distancing, etc, there is out there.

@BigChocFrenzy

Surprisingly, the serology studies in Sweden indicate only 17% with antibodies in Stockholm and about 5% average over the whole country

I think those are the rates for London and the rest of the UK respectively. Rates in Stockholm are 7%.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN22W2YC

Also, Sweden’s public may have been ok with their relaxed approach when their infection and death rates were comparable to many Western European countries, but as they become worse, and they find they have less freedom than their neighbours (such as being excluded from the Nordic travel zone), and with no end in sight (just 7% immunity for Stockholm and far lower elsewhere will mean herd immunity will take years), they may well change their tune!

@ConcernedAuntie there’s bits of research on the mcrvis.org website, (that may be a typo); for example people who ate at a restaurant, 9 got infected via air con flow. There was some research on surface transmission too as I recall.

Frances cases back to normal today ( 500ish) so looks like an adjustment. I thought it was their new system.

@ConcernedAuntie

I’ve been thinking exactly the same. It could be really useful as it may identify or confirm particular activities or situations that have more risk attached.

According to CDC, the risk of surface transmissions is actually low:

The primary and most important mode of transmission for COVID-19 is through close contact from person-to-person. Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads.

@whatsnext2

Presumably people aren’t eating in air-conditioned restaurants in the UK currently though. I think she was wanting to know how they were catching it now.

There has recently been an article in NY Times on who still gets infected in NY. Apparently, most of the new cases are among older and vulnerable people who hardly leave home but who either live or interact with younger family members. Younger adults seem to have zero symptoms and feel absolutely fine. Their older relatives end up in hospitals.

Todays slides seem to show a very slight increase in admissions although that might be just because people didnt turn up on the bank holiday or because with normal work restarting people are swabbed before admission. I've now figured out why the regional figures still show declines almost everywhere - still more being discharged than admitted.

I think they need to look at a few families where they didnt all get it.
Will they find those people all have antibodies (so basically everyone is catching it), or might they find this T cell immunity.
I would also do a study on antibody and T cell re a school. How many in a class do actually catch it.

Re the hand washing, while im sure it is useful it really annoys me when people are saying x is ok because hands are washed (despite it being like a school or restaurant- inside lots of people).
The handwashing is to keep r low by not infecting extras it will not stop someone getting it inside. That would be masks

@Derbygerbil lol no restaurants for sure but plenty of other workplaces use air con.

Also when vaccinating say mmr and get 90% maybe after 1 vax wonder if it's possible these T cells fight that off without antibodies or do the people who dont make the antibodies go on to catch it.

If there is cross immunity it might be enough to slow the second wave.

There is a summary of what is known and research about sex hormones and covid under the research update section of the covid zoe Kings app.