Surely everyone who was going to die from corona will do eventually

[sunshineanddaffodils]

Unless we all stay locked up at home forever or unless a vaccination or cure is discovered.

Mainly the fact that a huge majority of the deaths have been very very ill people, or very elderly people, or both.

Evidence for that fact? In particular that the vast majority would have died in months rather than years?

My mum is 80, so her risk of death from covid is about 10%, say.
I'd give her at least another decade to live based on her health and family history.
But I'd be very worried if she got covid.

A friend of mine has several health issues but I expect he'll be able to live a couple of decades more, easily. Not so much if he got covid.

@Lweji those percentages are extremely skewed. even people with underlying health conditions are more likely to recover then not. it's no wonder some people are terrified every time they leave the house when things like that are thrown around

Recent research has highlighted that the virus causes blood clots and (surprise) strokes and heart attacks too.

I am not saying it definitely was not that. But based on history, I feel it somewhat unlikely given she has had 2 strokes prior to the virus excisting in humans, plus a heart attack in the past 2 years. Had diabetes, severe asthma, hypertension, was on warfarin for blood thinnning anyway..ets. Just seems a bit odd to put someone like this down as a covid death, when their issues have been going on since way before this, and seemed to be following about the same 'pattern' tbh (about every 6/7 months, a hospital stay with a serious problem, has been usual)

Evidence for the fact that the majority of deaths have been the elderly/ill? Erm. The entire available info on it?

I think we're getting desensitised to the numbers, tbh. 43,000 died over the course of just over 8 months in The Blitz and it is still taught to all children as part of history. A similar number of people have died in 4 months of Coronavirus and people are shrugging their shoulders saying "well they would have died anyway..."

Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

It's not the same group in a Venn diagram, though. There will be some overlap, but it's not 100%.
And we are observing excess deaths in the worst hit countries. We'll see how it pans out over a year, but letting the virus rip free will mean that people who would have had medical interventions to live longer won't be able to.

Evidence for that fact?

Aren't you a scientist?

How much evidence do you actually need?

If you are going to contradict the medical and scientific consensus that this is a disease of the elderly and that certain co-morbidities increase risk, perhaps you should provide some evidence?

Are you saying that the CMO is working with false evidence?

Seriously.

As I wrote
In particular that the vast majority would have died in months rather than years?

Your vile opinion about cannon fodder is based on your feelings. I also have friends in scientific roles. And they aren't fucking heartless.

Entirely unsure what you are on about tbh? Cannon fodder?!

I didn't say scientific people were heartless either, so not sure where thats from either.

We know that most of those who died had underlying health conditions.
I'm asking you for evidence that most were indeed very ill. To the point that covid hardly made any difference.
What's the percentage?

In particular that the vast majority would have died in months rather than years?

Can I ask, how on earth such evidence would exist, given timetravel is not possible? Educated guesses can be made though, given ages and illnesses involved.

Either way, jesus, did not mean to poke the hornets nest. I will definitely think in future before posting any opinion that is not 'there is no obvious group affected' or pointing out how many of the victims were very ill.

Later

A big part of what I do is to evaluate scientific data and scientific opinions.
I've seen plenty regarding covid that are faulty at best.

There has been a lot of misunderstanding of Spiegelhalter's original calculations, which were about additional risk, NOT total^ risk

He has since highlighted that catching COVID doubles the risk of dying within a year for people aged 45+

That's still not a big risk except for the very elderly, but we shouldn't distort the stats
^
Spiegelhalter: How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?
^
Note added 2nd May 2020.

"Some people seem to be interpreting this article as suggesting that COVID does not add to one’s normal risk.^

I should make it clear that I am suggesting that it roughly doubles your risk of dying this year."

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

....."So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two^"

Can I ask, how on earth such evidence would exist, given timetravel is not possible? Educated guesses can be made though, given ages and illnesses involved.

Yet, I believe you presented it as fact?

@Lweji. No one is saying that it’s great that a load of over 80s are dying. Just that the future years of life lost is considerably less than if the virus had affected children.

Of course there is not a 100% overlap but most of the people who die from this would have been dead in 5 years anyway. And as always - please note that I said most and not all.

I think some people are massively over sensitized to the numbers.

660,000 people die in the UK every year.

We don't have a daily TV show to count how many have died so far.

Oh before I do go actually though, I need to make clear I do NOT think these deaths are nothing either. I am unsure why I seem to have got this 'evil' response, maybe my wording? I don't mean these deaths do not mean anything, just kind of trying to make sense of things as they are.

Lweji, there would never be evidence of that, as I said, its impossible to tell when someone 'would have' died without time travel. As you know. But knock yourself out. You keep pretending that its not the most vulnerable suffering the wrst, and that many of these would have had a short life expectncy anyway even without vocis being around. Sad, but true.

Yet, I believe you presented it as fact?
Haha, we going back to 'any opinion I personally disagree with must be followed by 'IMO' else they are presenting opinion as fact'

this place..

IMO

fwiw, I'm in Germany which has restarted the economy - shops, restaurants, gyms, some classes in school, kids are playing etc

Going well so far,
BUT
all with social distancing
and masks are mandatory in shops, taxis, stations, public transport etc

We can restart most of our previously "normal" lives provided we don't demand it is exactly the same as before

Everyone dies eventually. Why save anyome ever then?

It's killing people that wouldn't be killed by a normal virus including flu. You do realise that migh

Include you?

*I do think a large number of those who have died would die anyway,

All these people who “were going to die anyway” were someone’s child, sibling, partner, parent, friend, colleague etc. For every one of these people who have lost their lives many others are suffering grief.
But hey as long as people aren’t being inconvenienced right?

I completely agree with the above.

OP, your original post comes across as not giving a toss about those who've suffered. Such a flippant and careless statement.

I do think a large number of those who have died would die anyway

You can say that about many people. Maybe my mother should have done as she wanted with me and not just my sibling and aborted me because I will die anyway. Maybe I should have succeeded in taking my life at 15 because I will die anyway.

the dramatics on this thread show clearly how people who are probably usually fairly rational and logical have allowed fear and overkill from media to completely skew their ability to use their common sense