Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

Glitch in the computer system.

Loads of workplaces/shopping venues/theatres etc. are closed.

Also there are certainly loads of asymptomatic/mild unreported cases.

DH and I were wondering this. Surely that can't be right with a population of 9 million packed in like sardines.

Not everyone getting tested, tests not being accurate? I honestly dont believe that there are no new cases.

@SandieCheeks they said it was a glitch that gave the zero result, but still doesn't explain the low numbers over the week.

There are loads of workplaces/theatres closed everywhere else so that's not really explaining it either.

@PinkCrayon but that applies all over the UK, it's not peculiar to London.

because lots of people have already had it

I knowvit does unfortunately just thinking of suggestions, computer glitch sounds most likely.

We did have a massive peak at the start, I don’t know much about how it works but I believe the more people that have had it, the less it can then spread?
Despite the huge population we aren’t all squashed in like sardines, London has loads of green spaces so it’s been possible to get out for exercise safely.

I imagine they peaked sooner than the rest of the country, so have been past the peak for longer.

They may have reached a point where herd immunity is starting to play it's part, as London was in crisis long before they started testing everyone. But I'm not sure on that one but if 60-70% of residents have been exposed in such a condensed living situation with millions sharing public transport pre Lockdown daily possible I suppose 🤷🏻‍♀️

Early peak compared to everyone else. Early results from studies suggest closer to 10% of Londoners have had the virus (compared to more like 4% nationally). Also a comparatively young & healthy population - so proportionally fewer hospital admissions (which is what they are really counting because that’s when vast majority get tested) than you would see for same no. of infections in older parts of the country. I’m in London and loads of people I know have been unwell in last few months with something like it.

I think public health England admitted there would has been a testing glitch so numbers are not quite as low.

Generally though numbers do seem to generally be falling in the capital and u don’t get why. The leak argument doesn’t work because we all locked down together do other area would have halted the spread earlier and brought their peaks down (like a mini New Zealand if you like tackling it early!). I know Hurd immunity is quoted but general estimations seems very low re who has had it (5 percent) so seems unlikely?

I wondered if now the epidemic has moved mainly to care homes that could be a factor? Do they have less? And is their population younger which may impact? I honestly don’t know!

I think it's been in London longer than anywhere else in the UK to begin with.
Commuters not coming into the city.
People not working much
London much easier to walk around for shopping etc, maybe reducing transport
No tourists.
Possibly a younger population? (not sure about that one really)

In March, I knew a ton of people who were sick with CV (very few tested though). I don't know anyone at all since the start of May.
Out of all my friends, at least 30% had symptoms that may or may not have been CV. There is no way I believe the 5% figure.
It felt like London was 3 weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

I think a lot of people had it , I know of 6 in my office that had it

Where I live in London pretty much everyone appeared to be following the social distancing rules. That has noticeably changed in the past week, I do wonder what that will do to the figures.

Herd immunity?

I also know a lot of people that had symptoms in March, not tested so can’t be sure but enough symptoms to think most of them had CV.

Just to agree on the 5 percent figure way more than 5 percent of people I know had to self isolate with symptoms but with no testing it’s impossible to know who has had it! And it doesn’t correspond to the “it feels like your dying” threads in here most had a fever and abut if a cough and definitely Not as worse as flu - at least three worked from home throughout. Which makes me wonder if they did have it or just a bit of a cold/ normal bug. Really need some anti body testing to know I guess.

Everyone I know who had it got it in March or early April. The peak was definitely earlier in London. I think a lot of cases now are care homes so there may be fewer of those in London. Possibly also a greater proportion of people working from home, which started around 16th March, still far fewer people going into central London. Lockdown was taken pretty seriously for the first few weeks here.

Herd immunity.

Exactly the same thing happened in various regions in China back in February or so. People didn't believe it then either. It does show that it is possible to get on top of it.

Everyone I see out and about in London is social distancing and queuing properly. I've seen no one have a party or have people round.

And all of my London based family and friends say they had it in feb/March. I had it in late March

Numbers are coming down, which is great, but some of these figure are literally too good to be true, which is dangerous if it leads to complacency.... Regarding the zero cases, most tests take more than an day to come back:

“Officials have played down the numbers, suggesting that they may be the result of a technical hitch known to have happened over the weekend, and explaining that they will rise in the coming days as more results come back. The number should not be interpreted to mean the epidemic is tailing off, they said.

The numbers also showed that only 79 cases were diagnosed across the whole of England - this, too, will inevitably rise in the coming days as more people who were swabbed on Monday test positive. A total of 2,412 people yesterday received positive results from samples taken between May 13 and 18.“