Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

[nancy75]

I’ve seen a few people having people round (my neighbours have turned their front garden in to meet up central 😡) but mainly people are staying home & staying away from each other. Up until this week buses in my bit of London have been completely empty

[whenwillthemadnessend]

I honestly believe loads more have had it than we think. Once the antibody tests are in full swing we can really tell then I hope.

[hotcrossbun4321]

It will go up again, certainly. I had an antibody test done and was negative, and I was commuting into one of the busiest bits of the country each day pre-lockdown. I had flu/illness in March and thought that was it but apparently not. I worry that people will get lax and think they've all had it in London so will be fine. The park in the bit I live in has resembled a music festival in the last couple of days. Lots of 20-somethings and naice looking families obviously meeting up with friends and not sticking to the rules. Quite frightening

[Bramblebear92]

It's difficult to say for sure, but I tend to agree that it probably peaked earlier. I thought I had it mid-late Feb, and many of my friends and their flatmates also had symptoms. No tests so hard to know for sure. But if I compare the number I know in London who seem to have had it vs the number in my hometown (just 1) it seems it might have been sweeping through London much earlier than elsewhere. I really hope this trend continues

[bengalcat]

I’d say London peaked earlier but really since lockdown it has been incredibly quiet compared to normal - it’s like Christmas every day - although I’m a key worker my stress levels have plummeted due to a much slower pace of life and ease of getting around undoubtedly eased by lack of people commuting from outside to work and those that live here at home etc .

[Freetodowhatiwant]

Yes I knew plenty of people - both tested and confirmed and also suspected/self diagnosed) who had it in March and were still sick into April. No one who has had it since. I think we have generally been good here with lockdown. Although there are a lot of people in London it’s a big place with plenty of outdoor green space, especially in the areas where people tend to live rather than, say, the areas people think of when they say ‘oh London is so busy I could never live there’. Like oxford street and all the busy shopping and business and bar areas. Also we got it bad earlier and then the infection moved on. I don’t imagine we have had enough to bring about herd immunity (but imagine if so many people were asymptotic that was the case - that would be amazing). It will probably rise here like everywhere and we keep adjusting restrictions.

[Haffiana]

I actually think it was spreading in London as early as January. I think the AB tests will reveal some interesting figures.

There is a lot to be said for not hiding away unless you are extremely vulnerable.

[WorraLiberty]

I've a feeling it'll rise again soon, as loads of Londoners have gone back to work this week and many have no choice but to us public transport.

But Londoners generally aren't packed in like sardines, unless you're talking about the tube/trains/buses at rush hour.

[krustykittens]

That's a shame, DerbyGerbil, I was so hoping it would be good news. It's depressing, there is no end in sight of this. I have a friend who is very ill and terrified of getting this. Living with the fear everyday is proving to be mentally exhausting.

[WorraLiberty]

I actually think it was spreading in London as early as January. I think the AB tests will reveal some interesting figures.

Yes, I agree with that. A lot of people I know where very ill with 'flu' from Christmas onwards.

[LilacTree1]

I think we probably started with it in November and it’s ended it’s run.

[OnlyThenWhen]

Wasn't there evidence it was in France in Dec/Jan time? There's no way it wasn't here then if that's the case.

[HesterShaw1]

The 5% figure is not universally agreed upon. Some scientists calculate that for the numbers to stack up, the percentage is way higher than that

[LizzieSiddal]

As others have said, I also know a lot of people living in London who had this in March. It was really quite scary tbh. So london we’re ahead of the rest of the country. Hopefully the rest will catch up soon and we won’t have any new cases.

[ToffeeYoghurt]

Re age. London has the largest elderly population in the UK.

It can't be herd immunity. Not with 10% having had it. That means 90% haven't.

I agree with basilica people were likely largely sticking to social distancing and self isolation. Probably adhered to because of how badly London was hit. People in London were acutely aware of quite how serious things were/are.

The incubation period tends to be around two weeks? People started going back to work last week, I think it was? We all saw the photos of people crammed onto tubes. We'll find out in the next couple of weeks whether London really is through the worse or not. If it is, given the commuters include many from other parts of the UK I can't see it remaining a place with a low infection rate. There's also the thousands arriving daily at Heathrow with, for now, no checks or quarantine (despite Mayor Sadiq Khan's pleas to the government for immediate controls).

[Derbygerbil]

@krustykittens

It is really good news that London’s cases have dropped significantly..... They’re just not zero! Eradicating Covid in London in less than 2 months would be good to be true!

[QuimReaper]

I'm very interested to see what happens in the next couple of weeks!

[LangClegsInSpace]

Numbers are coming down, which is great, but some of these figure are literally too good to be true, which is dangerous if it leads to complacency

Yes, this. Where are these figures from OP?

[HesterShaw1]

Everyone was saying two weeks ago there would undoubtedly be a massive spike of cases after the VE day street parties.Those would be happening about now, wouldn't they?

[milveycrohn]

I live in London. I don't know anyone who has had it. Ok, I am recently retired so no longer working, but no one in the various social groups I belong to has had it, as far as I know.

[krustykittens]

DerbyGerbil Yes, that is true! I suppose I should be more optimistic.

[pfrench]

Because no testing.

[ToffeeYoghurt]

It doesn't apply to all but huge numbers of Londoners are indeed packed in like sardines. Cramped flats, lots of overcrowding, people living on top of each other.

Even the more affluent, the very rich included, are living much closer proximity than they would be in much of the UK. It's not only about the size of the house or flat.

[Derbygerbil]

I think it might be because:

a) people took it more seriously in London earlier as we kept being told London was way ahead of the curve... so they isolated in a way they didn’t elsewhere

b) those Londoners who have needed to be out and about have born the brunt of it, and in that segment of society, infection rates have been really high, with some herd immunity having occurred within that group. So it may be 10% overall in London, but 30-40% in this group!

[OnlyThenWhen]

Because no testing

Even if nobody else was being tested, hospital admissions are being routinely screened now.
It does look as if hospital admissions have been steadily dropping in London, mores than the rest of the country (although they had a much higher peak, too): assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886474/2020-05-20_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf