Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

[ToffeeYoghurt]

Here you go @IdefinitelyHaveFriends
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

From the above link...
The local authorities with the highest age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 were all London Boroughs

[BigChocFrenzy]

Kristian G. Andersen ‏@KGAndersen (Immunologist)

A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.

References:

Spain: https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/PrimerosDatosEstudioENECOVID19.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0askXAC4Is4rSY8EHR6S9TYAMZQWh6mAvuHNyUjNgiZP3TWe6Sj3pcwGo …

Italy: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098442v1 …

Sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ …

Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/de-forste-forelobige-resultater-af-undersogelsen-for-covid-19-i-befolkningen-er-nu-klar …

Norway: https://www.nrk.no/norge/nye-fhi-beregninger-viruset-er-mindre-utbredtt_-men-mer-dodelig-1.15021397

[milveycrohn]

The cruise ship is significant because some cabins are likely to be internal cabins (without windows), and reliant on air conditioning, so it is surprising that not all passengers got the virus.
There have also been studies elsewhere where there have been house shares but not all in the house became infected despite sharing kitchens and bathrooms. (I can't remember the name of the place, but was not in the uk).
There is still so much we are learning about this virus.

[MoggyP]

Maybe it's because as soon as symptoms start showing, enough of them decide to break the rules, travel hundreds of miles, and then get included in the stats at destination if they need medical attention?

[Derbygerbil]

@Oliversmumsarmy

The tests used much earlier may have had a very high rate of false negatives, but for current ones it’s more like 1.5%.... which needs to be offset again the 0.5% of false positives.

medichecks.com/pages/coronavirus-antibody-blood-test-information

[Derbygerbil]

The cruise ship is significant because some cabins are likely to be internal cabins (without windows), and reliant on air conditioning, so it is surprising that not all passengers got the virus.

But Covid isn’t generally aerosolised, so I’m not sure why air-conditioning would make a difference.

[Derbygerbil]

@Oliversmumsarmy

Also, even if that was the case, the 17% would represent the 70% identified by the test, and the missing 30% would therefore equate to 7% of the population, so 24% overall.

[notthemum]

Cos everyone has fucked off to the beach.

[Gmom]

@ToffeeYoghurt

You say “...Reported as affecting the UK's most deprived areas. The top ten being London boroughs” and it raises a thought of mine that I’d love an opportunity to share if I may.

Deprivation rankings are relative to the neighbourhood or area so the cost of housing has a big impact. So the reason there are so many areas in London at the top of the deprivation rankings is simply because the cost of owning a home is so high in London.

People in deprived areas in London may have better stats in terms of access to income, employment, education, healthcare, living environment etc as a deprived family in Hull, for example, but on the deprivation rankings the Londoners will appear as more deprived because property prices in London are so out of reach for them.

A woman I know collecting books for a school the other day circulated an email saying “despite being next to Regent’s Park it is one of the most deprived schools in the county.” Duh! It is precisely because it is next to to Regent’s Park and because homes in and around the park are so expensive (those on Avenue Road cost £25 million plus) that it is one of the most deprived. I’ve wanted to get this off my chest since.

I guess my point is that when you point the finger at London and say “look how deprived it is” you’re really saying “look how many rich people with expensive houses live within a few blocks of council housing.” It doesn’t mean that people are universally worse off in those areas than people in deprived areas lower down in the rankings and in fact I’d bet their access to income and employment is better than other cities in the UK.

[HesterShaw1]

I was nodding all the way through that post Gmom

[IDefinitelyHaveFriends]

Those are age standardised rates Toffee. Interesting in terms of whether a thirty year old from Brent is more at risk than a thirty year old from Bournemouth, but doesn’t tell you whether Bournemouth or Brent has a higher death rate. I’ll have to get my actual laptop out and look them up.

[Localocal]

London has a lot of young professionals, who are likely to be able to work from home. Plus they are less likely to show symptoms and thus less likely to show up in the numbers even if they are infected.

[Purpl]

It’s because it ran rife through all the city offices in December and January. Most of us didn’t even go to doctors but the offices were coughing for weeks after but still able to work. Trust me the trains and tubes are so filthy and packed us Londoners were joking that worse on trains than corona!!! That’s why we need to get back work unless you in high risk bracket. Only the older men with underlying symptoms needed more than a week of work most of us just worked through,

[AlabamaArkansas]

giving me a birds eye view of why the BAME mortality rate is such an issue (but that's another thread entirely)

Wow.

[janet1267]

Yes I agree - 'wow'. I can't believe what I have just read.

It's also highly unlikely that most Londoners have had it. What a sweeping statement. I'm in London, working in the centre until March and know less than a dozen people who've had it. I know of no-one in my local area at all.

[Derbygerbil]

@Purpl

You all had the flu or a nasty cold, as 1,000s upon 1,000s did, and do each winter which many of us just work through...

Why are people so absolutely desperate that they must have had Covid, ignoring all the evidence that Covid wasn’t widespread here in December. Deaths only spiked in London from late March (which they weirdly different despite the fact it was “rife in all the city offices”.

[Derbygerbil]

(which they weirdly didn’t despite the fact it was “rife in all the city offices”)

[NaomiFromMilkShake]

They have all moved to Durham ???

Oh wait, you can only do this if you are Dom Cummings.

[Nihiloxica]

Remember when it was insisted that it definitely wasn't in Europe in December?

And then it turned out that it was, and that there was community transmission in December.

So we're not sure how widespread it was.

And there was a particularly nasty respiratory virus that many people had that had the same symptoms as Covid-19.

I think it's obvious why people are wondering if they had it.

I'm pretty sure I had it. I was persuaded that it was just an extremely ununsual virus with the same symptoms that were all over the media and it was a complete coincidence that it was only weeks before the pandemic.

But I don't believe that any more.

I'm more interested in why the adherents of the Imperial model are so determined that immunity is so low that they can justify keeping us in lockdown indefinitely.

[Aridane]

Just when you think Mumsnet cannot surprise you any more with offensive Coronavirus views, along comes @FelicisNox saying the blacks and Asians have brought it on themselves.

[Aridane]

Oh, and same poster believes she has knowledge unique to her that most Londoners have already had coronavirus

[Devlesko]

propaganda, you can't believe anything they say.

[Aridane]

Yeah - I had that nasty flu thing in January with long lasting dry cough - ‘twasn’t coronavirus though!!

[Divebar]

Apparently the R rate in London is 0.4 and in Yorkshire is 0.8. I’m going to start patrolling Kings Cross to ensure no one brings their disgusting northern germs down here and I’m going to go on about it A LOT.