Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

I honestly think London has really respected lockdown and hence the number of cases is dropping. I live in a very socially mixed area and I don’t see anyone really breaking lockdown. Whether it’s the big houses or the council flats, I think we all know we are crammed in cheek by jowl and had better respect each other.

My kids say their friends from uni out of London are seeing much more activity on streets and in public places than we have here.

So am delighted but not surprised that it is working.

Oh also there is testing - my DD was asked to take one this week and it was negative.

Good point about the testing (or lack of).
Lots of Londoners don't drive. They can't easily get to a testing centre particularly if they're trying to avoid public transport. How easy is it to get a home test?

I understand the incubation period, whilst commonly two weeks, can be up to one month.

It would be very good news if London really was over the worse. I'm not so sure that's the case. How can it be if people start commuting in from elsewhere in the UK, even if we do finally (months after most other countries) set-up airport controls.
I hope I'm wrong.

So if you've "had it" does the evidence now suggest you can't catch it again?

Is the good weather helping? People been outside more & not confined in offices, on public transport, in shops etc?

London has a younger population proportionally ToffeeYoghurt.

London’s population is young (average age 36.5) compared to the UK overall (40.3)

London was definitely affected before the rest of the UK. The last few days before lockdown were really quiet and people were already working at home. I assume that is why there are fewer new cases now. Travel on the tube, buses and trains is down by 95% (or was until Monday).

I agree that a lot of people had odd illnesses in January and February. Whether they all had COVID-19 is another matter.

A high up London based doctor I know working in London says the virus virtually disappeared overnight a week or so ago. Says it’s really weird. Almost as if it never happened and said that he and other colleagues are actually slightly freaked out about it.

Make of that what you will.

I’m just a random bloke on the internet.

I just read that London is to remain in lockdown until 1st June despite there being no known new cases of Covid-19 for a day or two. Well, that is 'known' cases. I don't think it is unreasonable to stay in lockdown a bit longer, better safe than sorry but what is funny to me is that at the end of last week lockdown was 'eased' resulting in people going out and about, meeting up, etc. It's hardly surprising nobody knows where they are with this flipping plague.

@AlecTrevelyan006 I do think it's odd.

I work in a testing lab (for SARS-CoV-2) - a couple of months ago about half our samples were positive, now it's running at around 1-2%. Some runs we have no positives at all.

The tests are the same, and the positive and negative controls are all working fine. Although we now test a lot more from outside the hospital which would affect the results, that doesn't explain it all.

My personal opinion (to be taken with a pinch of salt until I have evidence!) is that a lot of people have had it and are immune and not infectious, so R0 is decreasing, and also people are keeping apart, wearing masks, staying in etc. - which will also be bringing R0 down.

Proportionally younger or not, there are more elderly people living in London than anywhere else in the UK.
Over 1.5 million pensioners. That's without including all the over 60s of working age.

I was in Canary Wharf earlier. Not many people around at all. A lot more wearing facemasks. Social distancing happening more than it is where i live in the suburbs. In Canada Square they had foot prints of where to stand on escalators and in lifts. There are one way systems in shopping centres and on stair cases outside. Hand sanitizer dotted around in dispensers. Was all a bit surreal.

It’s probably burned through most people

They want to get people back to work now so the stories are positive to encourage people to go out.
Previously they were all horror stories as they wanted people to stay in

I agree that a lot of people had odd illnesses in January and February.

There was a seasonal spike of Flu A around then.

Considering there are reports of cases in other countries as far back as even october last yr wouldnt surprise me of it's been around alot longer than we knew.

And with my tin foil hat on, to the poster who said his dr friend said its like it disappeared overnight, since theres been news to say it's not originated from the markets then next logical place is a lab and take what you want from it, biological warfare turns virus on or off not beyond the realms of possibility, esp with thatvrepoet the other day where they have been merging mouse DNA and human DNA together like wtaf

I’m sure I read that randomised testing suggested that 10% of people in London had had it as opposed to 5% elsewhere. But I suspect that DerbyGerbil has a point that those 10% are disproportionately front line workers, and hence while we’re still in lock down that’s enough to put effective firebreaks in the population. If we went back to normal then it might be a problem again, although if we stay more or less locked down for another 10 days and keep SD thereafter then potentially we’d have a very small reservoir of the disease in the population so would be able to track and trace.

The good news is that (touch wood) we do seem to have achieved a massive drop off in transmission by a quasi-lockdown without letters of permission to leave the house, where most people take the spirit of the rules seriously but use their discretion and don’t get too paranoid about the occasional brushed shoulder, sunbathing session, or borrowed lawnmower.

Are you what they call a BOT AlecTrevelyan006?

@cyclingmad - from what I understand, the possibility of the virus escaping from the lab near Wuhan market has been completely disproved, and they think it's a bat or pangolin coronavirus that's jumped into humans.

Before the lockdown, our London borough had reported one confirmed case. However, we knew of several people at the time that were suffering with all the covid symptoms. Perhaps the testing just hasn't caught up with new cases just yet.

The Zoe app shows many Londoners reporting symptoms

Just not getting a test

Or getting a test but not results

And with my tin foil hat on, to the poster who said his dr friend said its like it disappeared overnight, since theres been news to say it's not originated from the markets then next logical place is a lab and take what you want from it, biological warfare turns virus on or off not beyond the realms of possibility, esp with thatvrepoet the other day where they have been merging mouse DNA and human DNA together like wtaf

There's still the general belief that it can from the wet markets. And the Spanish flu actually ended up stopping almost overnight, spontaneous mutations like that can naturally happen (though might be a bit optimistic right now)

A lot of mumsnetters from the SW have previously reported being extremely ill Nov and Dec last year.

The SW has a reasonable R but yet few cases. It will be interesting to see the antibodies across the country.

Because we all had it before lockdown.
I’m pretty sure I had it at the beginning of January.

Because we all had it before lockdown.
I’m pretty sure I had it at the beginning of January.

Same here and lots of people I know.

We had two viruses in Feb and a lot of our friends had symptoms too. It would be great if a huge pool of people had got through it without the worst effects.